Early fall is my favorite time of year. The air has cooled and football permeates everything. Yet, when you really think about fall, much of what we love about it is defined by what it isn’t. It isn’t the scorching hot days of summer and it isn’t the cold, desolate winter. It is the in-between. Even the football season is in-between. Football’s regular season decides little. It is the pre-amble to the playoffs and bowl season where championships are won.  

Yet this year, a dark cloud hangs over my pumpkin carving, leaf raking happiness. I upgraded this off-season to a full Nuggets season ticket package just in time to have no games.  David Stern and Billy Hunter (as well as, apparently Kevin Garnett) are conspiring to ruin my favorite time of year, and therefore my entire year.

After negotiations between the NBA and players ended as abruptly as The Sopranos last night, we now face an entire winter with no NBA and it feels like my fall has been taken from me as well. My football teams are already done for the season. I should be a week away from spending my every night consoling myself by watching the NBA, but instead I will have to either talk myself into becoming a hockey fan, grow a mullet and start drinking Molson or commit myself to college basketball more fully than the players that actually play college basketball.

I haven’t spent enough time analyzing the NBA issues to decide who is right and who is wrong – mostly I suspect both sides are wrong. I understand that teams are losing money thanks to declining attendance and rising player costs but I find it hard to feel sympathy for successful businessmen that are asking for someone else to regulate how much they pay players because they can’t trust themselves. How did you make your billions not understanding the concept of cost/benefit? The billionaires on Wall Street are desperately fighting any attempt at regulating their reckless activities that can literally wipe out entire firms and the country’s economy. While at the same time billionaire NBA owners want more regulations so they can show a profit?

On the flip side, I have little sympathy for players that refuse to look at the broader picture and understand that to keep the league running successfully they may have to take a pay cut that doesn’t allow them that 3^rd Maybach they want.  The U.S. auto workers also refused to negotiate reduced payroll costs with automakers that had been generous when times were good. Those automakers instead of losing money, shipped those jobs overseas. Now, rather than making 80% of what they were making before when they had negotiated entirely too high salaries, the auto workers make nothing because there are no more jobs.

There is no perfect solution. At the end of the day, neither side will be happy with a resolution. But isn’t that the point of a negotiation?

NBA players already have their millions. Owners that were losing money certainly are in no rush to return to a money-losing venture. In the end, the only losers are the fans.

This looks like it is going to be a protracted battle. There is no end in sight. Fans, like me, are sad now, but over the course of the coming months, as with any other loss, we will progress through the stages of grieving until we ultimately reach acceptance.

And maybe, just maybe when the children in these negotiations grow up, become adults and settle this dispute they will learn the hard truth neither side wants to hear.

They need fans a lot more than fans need them.  

Shadow: Last week I worked a 30 hour ‘day’ and I still think I got off easier than being in beautiful (and by beautiful I mean ugly) Utica, NY onsite with our newest client.  Turner had that privilege, and we will be lucky if he is ever the same again.  He popped into work for a few minutes today and by the looks of his short locks…he either got a haircut or pulled out all his hair while the clients harangued him about the system he so glowingly sold them at Xmas time last year.  I am heading to California this weekend, so may miss the debut of Tebow Time, and am counting down the days until Vegas and the Revenge of the THH Parlay.  I really like SD’s theme this week…since I am such a devoted basketball disciple.

Since our basketball plates are going to be sparse this winter, we are incorporating it into THH this week.

In each match-up, which team would you cheer on if this were a basketball game, rather than football game?

College:

Wake Forest @ Duke

SD: Poor Wake Forest. For a brief period in the late 90’s and early 00’s Wake was a pre-eminent basketball location. It produced 2 of the best NBA players of the last 15 years (stoic Tim Duncan and nut-punching Chris Paul). But over the last few years it has regressed to the bottom of the ACC barrel. As a Florida State football fan, I can relate to team’s going from being one of the best in the country to being a conference also-ran. Duke on the other hand never changes. Lots of wins. Occasional championships. Unlikable players. Coach with dyed, glued on hair. Dick Vitale’s undying love. They could only get more unlikable if David Stern had gone there. Go Wake.

Shadow: Where else but college sports can you see the Demons versus the Devils?  Duke seems to always lead the league in recruiting the most annoying players in the country and then calling them “scrappy”.  Someone once said that success breeds contempt.  I don’t know what that means, but Christian Laetner (should have been disallowed from playing for a team with Devil as a mascot) and Bobby Hurl-ley soured me on Duke basketball for all time.  Go Wake.

West Virginia @ Syracuse

SD: Bob Huggins and Jim Boeheim are the polar opposites of the coaching world. One looks like he spends his free time at the Bada Bing Club. One looks like an Anthropology professor. Yet both have had similar careers – consistently successful with minimal post-season success (just Carmelo single-handedly taking over March Madness in 2003 keeps them from being championship-less). I will cheer on WVU and Bob here only because I appreciate Bob’s willingness to always take on dead teams and resurrect them. Cincinnati, Kansas State, West Virginia. None are glamour positions, yet he has succeeded at each. Whether he had a little assistance along the way from friends in the ‘Waste Management’ or ‘Import/Export’ business I don’t want to know.

Shadow: Just seeing the word Syracuse makes me feel a little wistful about Melo.  All of us that watched the Nuggets persevere and actually win after his departure still had to admit in our heart of hearts that in the playoffs, you just need that offensive go-to guy that can take over a quarter if needed.  The Nuggets had a bunch of guys who either didn’t seem to want to take a shot and just passed the ball around forever…or guys who never saw a shot they didn’t love to take no matter how ill-advised (looking at you JR Brick and Kenyon).  Painful at times to watch.  So, in honor of my memories of Melo, I will take the Orangemen.  (funny….Native Americans force St Johns to give up their name, but I don’t see the orange-fake tanned Jersey Shore denizens complaining about the Cuse)

[footnote:  yes, I know Syracuse dumped the Orangemen/Orangewomen and just became “The Orange”…but that fact would have prevented my really funny joke]

[footnote 2: fine, it wasn’t really funny…..shut up]

NBA:

Atlanta @ Detroit

SD: Hawks versus Pistons would be a great game if this were still 1988. Unfortunately now it is a game I don’t think I would watch even if it is the only NBA game played before 2012. Ok, that is a lie. Like an alcoholic sipping on cough syrup, if this is all I could get, I would take it. The Hawks would definitely win but I will go with Detroit just because I have retained a soft spot for Joe Dumars since he gave both Carmelo and Anthony and Chauncey Billups to the Nuggets. It’s the least I could do to re-pay him.

Shadow: The Tigers made the playoffs and beat the Yankees.  The Lions are measurably better than the Broncos right now and will probably paste us at the end of the month.  I know I should be trying to follow Dave’s theme….but I have too much hate for Detroit right now.  So, I am taking Atlanta.

Washington @ Carolina

SD: The Late Career Michael Jordan Derby! Washington, site of a comeback we have all wiped from our memories, and his first attempt at destroying a franchise from within the front office (Kwame Brown!) versus his current hobby in Carolina. The only time I ever saw Jordan play live was in a Wizards uniform which is like saying “I’ve only seen Robert DeNiro in the Meet the Parents movies.” It is a shame I carry with me to do this day. I have to go with Carolina, if for no other reason, than to try and wipe this stain off my soul.

Shadow: If Washington were still the Bullets, I would totally go for them.  I loved that nickname.  So much more politically incorrect and insensitive than any amount of Seminoles and Indians and what not.  I am less enthused with the Wizards moniker.  I think the Bobcats would be an exciting team to watch…and I would root for them, especially since they would be home in this matchup…and I would get to see Kristi.

Last year I debuted my completely un-original list of things to look for in March Madness. While some predictions worked out well (telling you Illinois was an obvious 5/12 upset candidate) others were…not so much (my Seminoles making a sneaky deep run).

So this year, with another year of research under my belt, I am feeling even more confident. I have started reading anything and everything to prep for dominating Turner and Shadow once again in our bracket challenge but I don’t want to have other’s analysis impact this list so without further adieu here are 32 things to keep in mind as you fill out your brackets and prepare for the glories of Basketball Festivus.

1.  Last year I bragged on FSU and they lost in the first round. Let’s go with the opposite approach this year: if a team scores more than 70 points on FSU, FSU is done. Gonzaga averages 77 points/game. Do your own math.

2.  Of course if enough upsets happen we could see a Florida State vs. Florida game for a trip to the Final Four – how awesome would that be? Then the Gators could suit up Tim Tebow, who would trade in his eye-black for a shoulder tattoo of biblical passages. At this point it could only help his NFL draft stock.

3.  Wofford made its first ever March Madness this year which will lead to a horrendously painful ‘Woe-fford’ pun by Dick Enberg when they fall behind Wisconsin by 20.

4.  Experience matters in the NCAAs. Therefore look for good things from Villanova’s Scotty Reynolds, finishing his 9^th season in the Wildcats lineup.

5.  Your 2009-2010 Tyler Hansbrough award winner for most mentions of his ‘gutsiness’ and ‘toughness’ as code words for ‘big, awkward white guy who tries hard’: Luke Harangody.

6.  The last two years has seen an SEC team sweep through a weak conference tournament to a surprising tournament berth (08- Georgia, 09- Mississippi State). With the Bulldogs loss yesterday, the mantle of ‘team most obviously primed for a let-down’ goes to Washington who won a weak Pac-10 conference tournament Saturday.

7.  Washington narrowly edged out San Diego State for this honor.

8.  The worst first round game will be between Texas and Wake Forest – two teams that only got into the tournament due to their performance in December and January and combined for 11 losses since February 1.

9.  Actually, that could be a really entertaining game: two equally craptastic teams. Assuming they both stay on the court for the entire 40 minutes, that is. They have both faded so badly, just walking out before the games ends is really the only way left for them to further quit on this season.

10.  Clemson and Missouri should thank Texas and Wake for drawing attention from their equally uninspiring play.

11.  On a more inspiring note, I love when a small school gets to play a bigger in-state neighbor. Nothing like being passed over by your competition to get you fired up. Expect an inspired Sam Houston State effort in the first half but Baylor will pull it out by 5-7 points when SHSU wears down in the end.

12.  I am glad that John Scheyer’s parents got so much face time celebrating Duke’s ACC tournament victory this past weekend. At least they will have one last happy memory to finish their son’s career on.

13.  Time to insert my annual warning against picking Duke to win it all. Do you really trust a team with no real inside presence that relies heavily on outside shooters to win it all? Can they put together six straight games of high percentage outside shooting? If you wonder what a big team with a good inside game can do to them – check out the box score of their game at Georgetown earlier this season.

14.  That said, apparently Dick Vitale chaired the selection committee this year because this seeding was an absolute gift to Duke who has by far the weakest region. I don’t trust Duke but when their top competition is Baylor and Villanova it is scary to pick against them as well.

15.  Speaking of annual warnings: You can dismiss Big Ten basketball as being slightly more exciting than high school women’s curling but never underestimate Tom Izzo and Michigan State in the tournament. The guy has taken more ‘sub-optimally talented’ teams further than any coach in the land. He is the anti-Rick Barnes

16.  That was written last year – before Izzo took another team to the championship game. Beating Kansas along the way.

17.  Michigan State could play Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen this year.

18.  If Kansas makes it out of their region they should be national champs. They could potentially have to beat Michigan State and Ohio State or Georgetown just to make it to Indy. If they can make it that far, the rest should be smooth sailing.

19.  It is too bad Ohio State and Kansas could play before the Final Four. After the last week, I am convinced that Evan Turner refuses to lose and has the potential to single-handedly take over games when necessary. He is the Kobe of this tournament. I don’t care who he is playing with I don’t want to bet against him.

20.  The Big East will either be the dominant conference of the tournament and get multiple teams to Indy, or will be exposed as a fraud on scale with Bernie Madoff. The pressure is on Villanova, West Virginia and Georgetown to play above their seeds or we have to start questioning the conventional wisdom of the Big East’s strength.

21.  Murray State will barely edge out Robert Morris as the school that causes the most Google searches to find out where it is located

22.  But that is only because people will still be Googling Murray State on Saturday. If you know what I mean.

23.  The two most obvious 5/12 upset candidates are Cornell over Temple and Utah State over Texas A&M. One of these upsets will happen and the other will be a blow out by the favorite. I say Cornell wins and Utah State gets blown out.

24.  If you’re gonna be a bear, be a grizzly: Cornell, sweet sixteen.

25.  Much like John Calipari’s Memphis teams, Kentucky’s youth will be its Achilles heel. They found a way to pull out a number of close contests in the mediocre SEC but at some point they won’t get the final tip-in they need.

26.  There is no chance all four #1 seeds make it to Indy, despite what the experts say. Have there ever been #1 seeds with more questions? Kansas’ history, Syracuse’s health, Duke’s talent and Kentucky’s youth could all be their downfalls.

And finally, a couple history lessons to keep in mind:

27.  Remember all those years when Memphis would feast on a pathetic Conference-USA line-up and end up with a seed much higher than they deserved? Ladies and gentlemen your 2009-10 UTEP Miners.

28.  Although UTEP didn’t get a high seed, expect a lot of people to pick the upset over Butler. Butler has been here before. UTEP hasn’t.

29.  In 2000, Cincinnati was led by player of the year Kenyon Martin. Entering their conference tournament the Bearcats were the #1 team in the country. In the first game of the Conference USA tournament Martin broke his leg and was done for the season. The Bearcats were dropped to a #2 seed in the NCAAs and lost to Tulsa in the second round.

30.  Try Googling ‘Robbie Hummel’ and ‘Purdue’ this year and draw your own conclusion

31.  Last year Ty Lawson’s bum ankle cost the Tar Heels the ACC tournament and was the big question hanging over UNC coming into the NCAA tournament leading some leading pundits (cough, cough) to not pick UNC to win it all. Ty ended up being healthier than anyone expected and UNC cruised to a title

32.  In a completely unrelated note, Syracuse big man Arinze Onuaku hurt his knee in the Orange’s Big East tournament loss to Georgetown. All indications are that the injury isn’t serious but questions remain leading many to pick against the Orange. You have been warned.