Draft week is finally here; real, concrete news out of the NFL that is more about players than lawyers.

I know a bunch of lawyers. The last thing I want is lawyers to be the key players in my sports soap operas.

Strangely it is also the week in which NFL teams become most like politicians – you know – former lawyers that decided to ‘give back’ (i.e. – the power of running a firm full of other lawyers wasn’t enough for their massive egos). No matter what head-scratching moves a team makes in or leading up to the draft, the team will act like they just chose the right goblet from the Grail Knight.

On draft day, Cam Cameron acted like he sincerely believed one-legged Tim Ginn was the missing piece from a Dolphin Super Bowl run.

On draft day, the Forty-Niners convinced themselves Alex Smith was the heir apparent to Steve Young, rather than Jim Druckenmiller.

Draft day, where optimism really does spring eternal.

Of course, that isn’t the case. If history has taught us anything, it is that most of these high draft picks can at best aspire to an NFL career long enough to qualify them for a pension (assuming the NFLPA gets a pension in the coming labor agreement).

But that won’t stop each team from making the heartfelt case that the newest member of the organization will be the one hoisting the Lombardi trophy.

But which players will fail to meet those lofty expectations? I’m so excited for the draft I flew to Charlotte tonight to get the low-down on the first overall pick right from the source. Maybe its a sign, maybe it isn’t, but on the way in from the airport I saw a construction site at least 2 blocks long with a sign reading ‘Future Home of Cecil Newton’s Church That He Really Did Pay For All by Himself’.

Let’s go team by team through the first round and identify the players they should draft. I won’t pretend that I know what these teams will actually do, and have little evidence of teams following my advice (other than my epic guidance for the Jets to draft Mark Sanchez two years ago) but that doesn’t stop me from telling them what they should do.

And by ‘should do’ I mean ‘the draft pick that I think would be most fun for them to take’ not ‘will definitely make them better’.

#1 – Panthers – General consensus is that Cam Newton will be drafted by the Panthers. And who am I to argue. Jimmy Clausen has gotten his last two coaches fired, would you want him to be your franchise QB? Me neither. Some teams are scared off by Newton’s off-field transgressions (felonies, 3 schools in 3 years, transparent auctioning of his skills to the highest bidder), but I think Carolina is uniquely suited to ignore this. Their home state school is led by Butch Davis who has run a clean program once in his coaching career, when he coached the Browns, and we know how that turned out (24-34 record). If willing to hire a perennial cheat like Davis, I would imagine most North Carolinians would almost look with pride at Newton using the transfer payments he received to attend Auburn to help repair his father’s church.

#2 – Broncos – Marcel Dareus fits a glaring need for the Broncos along their defensive line. A glaring need that has been present for so long, it is almost becoming it’s own tradition unlike any other. Beside adding some size and skill to the  Broncos front line, I also like imagining John Fox (who isn’t the youngest coach in the league) and John Elway (who took his fair share of hits to the helmet) trying to keep Marcel Dareus and Darcel McBath straight.

#3 – Bills – You would think that as bad as the Bills have been for years, they would look for a flashy player – a quarterback or receiver to drum up interest among their bi-country fan base. However, they are smart and recognize a team should build from within. Offensive Line and defensive front seven. The Bills are so smart they have have a Harvard man under center! That is why they will grab potential superstar linebacker Von Miller from Texas A&M. Miller could be the best linebacker they have had since Cornelius Bennett played. A player taken when the Bills were led by another Harvard man, Marv Levy. See, with all these Ivy leaguers, the Bills are smart. They aren’t any good at football, but they sure are smart.  

#4 – Bengals – With both Chad Ochocinco Johnson Washedupo and Terrell Owens most likely on their way out of Cincy as soon as the Bengals are allowed to release them, it is important to get Jordan Palmer some help. You can’t go wrong with Julio Jones who looks like he has all the skills to be a star. This is such an obvious pick, that I hear VH1 has already contacted Julio about his own TV series.  I like to think the show is about Julio helping kids that get picked on at the playground to learn to stand up to bullies. Then they can call it ‘Me and Julio Down By the Schoolyard’.  

#5 – Cardinals – The Cardinals went from perennial Super Bowl contenders to the bottom of the worst division in the NFL when Kurt Warner decided he would rather dance on primetime than play for them. After a season of using quarterbacks that wouldn’t be hired to be Adam Sandler’s stunt double in The Longest Yard, the Cardinals need to grab Blaine Gabbert. He is a lock. What could go wrong with the Cardinals drafting a tall, immoble, white quarterback whose last name ends in ‘rt’?

#6 – Browns – AJ Green, the ridiculously talented wide out from Georgia fills a big hole for the Browns. Let’s just hope the Browns have better luck with him than the last WR they drafted known for his one-handed catches in college. Once Braylon Edwards got to Cleveland the only thing he could catch was pity and scorn from LeBron’s hangers-ons.

#7 – Forty-Niners – Unwilling to accept that the Alex Smith era is need of euthanization, the Forty-Niners continue to try and improve their defense to off-set Smith. To put some more skill in front of all-world linebacker Patrick Willis, the Niners should grab Robert Quinn. Sure, he didn’t play last season after taking illegal benefits from agents, but let’s face it, the Forty-Niners haven’t played for most of this decade. Call it a wash.

#8 – Titans – Still looking to replace Albert Haynesworth’s pass rush that jumped at Dan Snyder’s millions years ago, the Titans should reach for Cameron Jordan. Not only will he give them a edge pass rusher, but could open up a whole new population of potential season ticket holders, when frat boys from all over the south buy game tickets after hearing the Titans have acquired Jordan, assuming he is a former sorority girl that has joined the Titans cheerleading squad.  

#9 – Cowboys – There are three things Jerry Jones loves in this world. Meddling with his football team, bringing in players with questionable character and his alma mater Arkansas Razorbacks. I give you the perfect storm of Jones’ incompetence: Ryan Mallett.

#10 – Redskins – The Redskins need help everywhere except quarterback where Rex Grossmann looks to be a perennial Pro Bowler. I see them going for defense – specifically Prince Amukamara. As every Bronco fan remembers, Mike Shanahan has a fetish for drafting cornerbacks. Also, I think of this as tossing a bone to the idiot Birther movement. Just think of the jokes they can make with a guy whose name sounds like African royalty in the same city as President Obama. Those jokes would probably be hilarious. At least to other people dumb enough to be birthers.

#11 – Texans – In the mistaken belief that their offense isn’t a problem, the Texans should look to add more playmakers on defense so this can be the year they finally live up to their annual sleeper contender status. Justin Houston, a linebacker out of Georgia is the perfect fit. 6’3”, 270 pounds with a 4.6 40-yard dash. Plus his last name is Houston! And coming from Georgia he is accustomed to his team failing to meet overblown pre-season expectations.

#12 – Vikings – It looks like it might finally be the end of the Favre era. Let’s all commemorate the falling of an American hero, by pouring our Vicodin out on the curb. Needing a replacement for Favre, the Vikings should turn to Andy Dalton. Sure, there are some concerns his red hair may prevent him from succeeding in the pros, but with the Vikings playing in a dome and Minnesota’s long winters at least we won’t have to worry about Dalton failing because of the sun’s debilitating effects on his fair skin.

#13 – Lions – After just 3 or 4 games, the injury bug impacted Jahvid Best’s rookie campaign for the Lions last year and resurrected concerns about him from college that he can’t stay healthy. If Matt Millen were still in charge he would just go draft Ryan Williams this year despite taking a running back last year. Millen already had experience blowing a draft pick on an overrated Va Tech running back when he took Kevin Jones in 2004. Sigh, I miss Matt Millen.

#14 – Rams – New Rams owner Stan Kroenke wants to make a big splash with his first draft. He wants to make the big-name pick that will draw attention back from the Cardinals and Albert Pujols’ on-going contract drama. Most importantly he wants to help 2^nd year quarterback Sam Bradford. What name makes the most sense to draw excitement to the Rams? If I have said it once, I have said it never, nothing gets fans excited like an offensive lineman from Wisconsin. Gabe Carimi is just the man to get the City by the Arch talking.

#15 – Dolphins – The Dolphins just can’t trust injury-prone Ronnie Brown or mellow-dude Ricky Williams to handle the running game. It is time to start finding young legs to take some of the load. Bruising, consistent Mark Ingram would be the perfect answer but I can’t be the only one thinking that giving Mark Ingram Senior an excuse to visit Miami is a bad idea if we want to win the War On Drugs.

#16 – Jaguars – After years of drafting bustastic wide receivers in the first round, the Jaguars are finally starting to build their defense so that they can still win games, while their perennially mediocre offense sputters along and their fan base continues to shrink. To help both problems, the Jags can draft Jimmy Smith out of CU. Not only will he solidify the Jags’ secondary, but Jags fans can just recycle their old wide receiver Jimmy Smith jerseys and reminisce about the good old days when they were relevant.

We will back to finish out the rest of the first round later this week.

It is now mid-October. The evenings are getting cold and in the mountains here in Colorado there are large patches of snow and rapidly bare aspens. You can legitimately start thinking about Thanksgiving plans, just a month away.

More importantly we are finally in the heart of football season.

In the past are opening week jitters in the NFL, and uninspiring non-conference college games. We are even past the point every season when the Chargers turn around an embarrassing beginning to go on a long win streak to win the division and brainwash experts into thinking they are better than they are.

Oh, maybe not so much that last one.

In our near-future are late season games to clinch BCS Bowl games and playoff berths.

We are right in the heart of the time where the good teams should be separating themselves from the pack; where we are starting to identify the top few teams that could legitimately get their fans excited for a possible Super Bowl trip. However in an NFL with no undefeated teams, are there any teams that are obvious locks even for the playoffs?

We are also at that time of year when we are being bombarded with campaign commercials for an election less than a month away. Each candidate spends more time calling their opponent names than telling us any good ideas (which explains 87% of what is wrong with the government). Interestingly there seems like a strong parallel between the NFL and election season.

When I started to think about writing about each of the contender teams, I couldn’t focus on their good attributes. Like seeing pictures texted by Brett Favre, I kept focusing on their shortcomings.

As I go through a mental list of each team, I realize pretty much every team falls into one of two camps. They either can pass but can’t run or they can run but can’t pass.

It is the Conservatives and Liberals of the NFL. Whether through personnel, attitude or identity, each team has donned a lapel pin as either a running team or a passing team. In each case if you can shut down their strength you have a chance at a win.

I know one-dimensional teams have won Super Bowls in the past. But those teams were typically one-dimensional by choice.

A passing team like the Saints may have been known for their wide-open throwing but they could run when necessary (6^th in the NFL in rushing yards, 3^rd in rushing TDs).

The Steelers the year before were lumped in as a continuation of the historically strong running Pittsburgh teams but they were actually fairly balanced. Their great defense and a division with horrid offenses allowed for them to be mediocre on offense (17^th in yards passing, 23^rd in yards rushing, 20^th overall) and still win.

The Giants famously trumped the Patriots in 2008 when they had the best passing game in history. Yet, had no running game which allowed the Giants defensive line to tee-off on Tom Brady. On the offensive side, the Giants were a running team that when he got hot in the playoffs had a quarterback doing enough to win the Super Bowl.

In the end a team needs to be able to do both when called upon. I just don’t see many teams capable of that this year. Let’s break the teams into their ideologies:

The Liberals (motto: Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust is not an Economic Policy )

- Colts: In fairness the Colts haven’t been able to run the ball for years. Also, in fairness their only Super Bowl win came against Rex Grossman which should get a Barry Bonds sized asterisk.

- Packers: As shown on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers and his receivers are good but some times not good enough.

- Saints: Reggie Bush is out and so is the Kardashian magic. Until the Saints find some way to run the ball, defenses are going to drop about 14 people deep to cover all the Saints wide receivers

- Patriots: Like the Colts they have been doing this ‘no running game’ thing for a long time. However, they have also been doing this ‘lose in the playoffs to a team they should beat’ thing for a long time too.

- Eagles: Their best runner is their quarterback. Or is he the back-up? Or is he a wild-cat QB? Whatever he is, he shouldn’t be their leading rusher.

- Cowboys: When you rely on Tony Romo to always lead your team to wins in big games, you are destined for some pain come the late season stretch run. Or, in the case of 2010, the early season.

- Broncos: OK, I know it is a big stretch to label them a contender, but have you seen their division? I could make a legitimate argument they are the best team in the AFC West, despite their record. They certainly have a more rightful place on this list than the Cowboys.

The Conservatives (motto: Spreading the Ball Around is Another Name for Redistributing Wealth)

- Jets: Yes, I am sure there are lots of Jets fans feeling pretty good today. But when the Broncos shut down the Jets running game, they relied on the generosity of the refs and Braylon Edwards to catch passes. Being in the home town of the NFL helps ensure that the refs generosity will continue but can any Jets fan seriously trust Braylon Edwards to keep catching passes?

- Vikings: Let’s face it. The 2009 Brett Favre was an oasis in a desert of bad decisions, bad throws and sore arm excuses. Add in the distraction of an NFL investigation and Favre’s wife throwing things at him every time she sees him and the Vikings only chance is to let A.P. run the ball 30 times per game.

- Falcons: Matty Ice is living up to his nickname. Not by being cool under pressure but rather by playing like his throwing arm is numb.

- Texans: Hard to believe that a team with Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub is a running team but Arian Foster is driving this team. Johnson is playing hurt and Schaub has been exposed for what he is: an inconsistent QB who puts up big stats one week and then disappears for the next two. Kind of like the Texans as a whole.

- Titans: Chris Johnson still wants his 2,000 yards but the Titans won’t win handing him the ball constantly. Vince Young needs to at least make defenses think twice before putting 9 in the box to stop CJ.

- Chiefs: I can’t believe I have to include them in a list of contenders but such is the AFC West. However, like the Jets and Braylon Edwards, the Chiefs passing game relies on Dwayne Bowe. And Matt Cassel. Eek.

Just like the real two party system, there are also smaller groups out there: teams that are winning without being very good at passing or running: Seahawks, Bears, Cardinals, Dolphins for example. I guess they would be Libertarians, who don’t believe in any government, like these teams don’t believe in any offense.

Stripping away all of these teams, there are just a few teams left that may have the ability to both pass and run: Centrists. The real contenders:

- Steelers: I mocked Peter King over the summer for picking the Chargers to win the Super Bowl but prior to the season he shifted to the Steelers and is looking very smart today. With Big Ben out of college bar bathrooms and back on the field, the Steelers look like a well-rounded offense, capable of just enough to win with their stellar defense. Or similar to the team that won the Super Bowl two years ago.

- Ravens: I waiver between listing them here or in the above ‘winning without being able to pass or run’ group. The running game has been a little slow in coming on and no one trusts Joe Flacco (not even his own mother). But they have the players to be solid on ground and through the air; they just need to get it together. And if they don’t, Ray Lewis can always take a stab at motivating them.

- Giants: Quietly, the Giants might have the most well-rounded offense in the NFC: #2 in the NFL is passing yards, #7 in rushing yards. How did this happen, and why wasn’t I notified earlier? Obviously I blame Eli. It seems like the one Manning gene he didn’t inherit was the self-promotion gene.

We live in a world of a two-party system. The winners will always be the ones that can find some common ground with both.

I swore I was done.

I have been through the pain and stress of post-season baseball a few times. I had been through it enough to know what I would be in for having one of my teams in the playoffs. The late nights. The innings that last forever. Holding your breath through at-bats with your team clinging to a one-run lead.

It is pretty much misery.

So, I thought I was done. After my brief flirtation with the Rockies a few years ago, that ended a little like the affair in Fatal Attraction, I thought I wouldn’t have to worry October baseball for awhile. The Mariners, my new adopted team, are dreadful. The Giants, the team my wife sucked me into a decade ago when I was a baseball free agent, were young. But now they have grown up. And they drafted the most talented Seminole to ever play, brought him up in June and Buster Posey kick-started them into the playoffs with his NL Rookie of the Year performance.

Even as recently as 4 hours ago, I said I wouldn’t get sucked in. After being on the road for the last month, I have a big back-log of TV shows to catch up on. One of my fantasy college players was playing tonight. I don’t need baseball.

I made it all the way to the 3^rd inning before getting pulled in by Timmy Lincecum and Buster “The Man, The Myth, The Legend” Posey (a nickname I will torture Turner with for as long as possible). I am back in.

It is FSU/Miami week as well and for the first time in years they both look like legitimate BCS game contenders. Not only is this a major rivalry game, but it is also the opportunity for both teams to take the reins as the best team in the ACC by far. Ratchet up the stress a little more.

It’s time to project some of this stress on to some unsuspecting teams through hate.

Turner: This week’s episode is based on WWTDIVLW (What would Turner do in Vegas last week)…

College:

Michigan State @ Michigan

SD: Speaking of teams coming back from years of irrelevancy – your Michigan Wolverines. Shoelaces Denard Robinson might be the game’s most exciting player, which is remarkable not just because he might be single-handedly saving RichRod’s job but also because, last I checked, Michigan is in the Big Ten – a conference not exactly known for exciting players. Other than Jeff George of course. But he wasn’t exciting in the way that fans like. At least not fans of his team. The Spartans tried to counter Shoelaces’ excitement by beating Notre Dame with a fake field goal. Though in a very Les Miles-ian move, they actually didn’t get the play off before the play clock expired. Also in a very Les Miles-ian move, they still won. Give me real exciting play over fake, late excitement. Go Blue!

Turner: If it wasn’t for HOO-HOO-HOO-HOOSIERS, I would have definitely taken Michigan over IU and was terrified of MSU against Wisconsin.  So Michigan runs away with this one (despite the fact I would have lost $20)

New Mexico vs. New Mexico State

SD: Possibly the two worst teams in the country and they play in the same state. We haven’t seen two teams from the same state this bad since…ummm, Colorado and Colorado State last year. Well, that was anti-climatic. You will just have to trust us, that both UNM and NMSU are really bad. These teams are so bad, their fans would probably rush the field after beating a 1 and 4 team. Oh wait, CU did that last week too. Well, at least UNM and NMSU don’t embarrass themselves like that, even when losing by scores like 72-0 or 59-0 as they have done this year. Sort of like the college football Special Olympics, I think both of these teams should get a ‘win’ just for finishing the game. Let’s give them a big hand for at least trying. Orange slices are on me. They are so cute at this age.

Turner: I would have so bet on Boise St to cover on NMST.  I don’t remember UNM being on the board so I think the Aggies will take this one. 

NFL:

Tennessee @ Dallas

SD: On the Saturday before this game, Texas Stadium will play host to a game between Texas A&M and Jerry Jones’ alma mater – the Arkansas Razrobacks. The Razorbacks are led by highly regarded quarterback Ryan Mallett and perennial job hopping head coach Bobby Petrino. I am staring to wonder if that game might be a try-out for the same positions with the Cowboys next year. When the Cowboys inevitably come up short this year thanks to non-existent coaching by Wade Phillips and poor play in big games by Tony Romo, it is easy to imagine Jerry going back to his school and plucking out both the coach and quarterback to resurrect his franchise (see: hiring of Jimmy Johnson, Barry Switzer and his reaching for Felix Jones in the draft a couple years ago). As a guy who has made a living making jokes about Romo and Phillips, I can’t lose them both in one big move. What would I joke about then? So for that I have to cheer for the Cowboys. Keep Tony and Wade around a little longer to mock. Without them, I would be stuck just making fun of Brett Favre over and over again. Speaking of Favre….

Turner: Yes, Tennessee made me $38.  Thank you Tennessee, you will defeat the Cowboys this week.

Minnesota @ NY Jets

SD: After news leaked today that when Brett Favre was on the Jets a couple years ago he might have tried to seduce former Jets employee (and Seminole pin-up) Jenn Sterger by leaving her MySpace messages, voicemails and pictures of himself holding his…little gunslinger… he was asked about it at his press conference today. His response “I’ve got my hands full with the Jets.” Which, based on the photos, is a little hard to believe. I didn’t see anything filling up his hands, no matter what he calls them.  The creepiest thing about all of this (setting aside someone thinking those pictures are going to close the deal for him), is that if you look at it, Sterger actually looks quite a bit like I imagine Deanna Favre did when she was younger. Actually maybe that is kind of sweet. At least that is how I imagine Brett is trying to swing it when talking to Deanna about it. On the other hand, I am pretty sure if Mark Sanchez sends pictures of his junk to a woman she is going to be a little more receptive than Jenn was to Favre. Advantage Jets.

Turner: J-E-T-S JETS, JETS, JETS.   (-.5) 2nd half spread – EASY MONEY and easy win. I still can’t believe I put money on them but since they came through, they get my THH nod this week.

With the first college football weekend behind us, it is time to turn our attention to the big boys. The NFL kicks off on Thursday night in New Orleans but before the games get all official, it is time for that annual rite of passage: the season preview.

Even though no football analyst has any idea what is going to happen this season, it is some sort of by-law that each must write a preview, projecting how the season will play out. Sure, they will all be wrong and makes readers begin to question why they put so much faith on these analysts but a rule is a rule.

With the dream of someday being a professional football analyst mocked and ridiculed by my readership, I too am here today to present my 4^th annual ‘Only AFC Preview You Need’. So named not because it is better than the others (just look through my archives if you don’t believe me) but because they are all equally worthless.

AFC East

Everyone and their half-blind 7 year old niece is picking the Jets to win this division. However, these are the same people (less a few of the nieces I think) that constantly tell us how a premier quarterback is the key to winning in the NFL. You can say a lot of things about Mark Sanchez: he dates hot women, he has a cool nickname (the Sanchise), he does a good imitation of other people’s strange walks, etc. but one thing you can’t say is that he is a premier quarterback. Last year, he had a QB rating of 63. That is almost in the Jamarcus range (pre-Purple Drank…maybe). Sanchez threw 12 TDs and 20 interceptions. This is the QB of the best team in the AFC and maybe the NFL? Rex can say it all he wants, but it doesn’t make it true. Remember another hot rookie QB, Matt Ryan? His QB ratings each year: ’08 – 88, ’09 – 81 – and that was with expanded talent around him. Teams had a year of tape to learn from and study. I think the combination of the hype and too many off-season moves where winners and leaders (Alan Faneca, Thomas Jones) being replaced with unproven or troublemaking but talented players (Antonio Cromartie, Santonio Holmes) could be too much for the Jets. With the Jets failing that leaves the usual suspects to fill their void. The Patriots will be the same ol’, same ol’ team:  great passing game, questionable run game and defense but a coach and a (actual premier) QB to lead the way. The sleeper will be the Dolphins, who are essentially the Jets with less publicity. Solid young QB, solid running game, upgraded offseason passing game (B-Marsh) and defense (Karlos Dansby). As for the Bills, well they are a short 9 months from being in prime position to draft Jake Locker so….good for them.

AFC East Winner: Patriots (10-6)

Wild Card: Dolphins (9-7)

AFC North

Much like the Jets in the AFC East, the Ravens are getting all the hype in the AFC North. With expanded targets for Joe Flacco (Anquan Boldin and now T.J. Houshmandzadeh), a consistent defense and Ray Rice and Willis McGahee at running back there are few questions about the Ravens outside of ‘do I really want to own any Ravens on my fantasy team’? Well, I own Ray Rice if that answers your question. With Big Ben sitting in figurative jail for the first 4 weeks of the season (lucky for him it is only figurative), the Steelers could start out slow and never quite catch up, especially with a defense I still don’t trust – presence of insured hair or not. The Bengals have 2 separate VH1 reality shows on their roster but might be better off if that meant Flavor Flav and Brett Michaels were slated to start. I just can’t trust the Bengals. Whether it is not believing Cedric Benson can duplicate last year, Carson Palmer can play solidly again or T.O. and Ochocinco can both be fine with reduced targets, something just doesn’t quite click for me on this team. If the team starts out 0 and 2 thanks to a tougher Conference champ schedule that starts at New England and then home for Baltimore, we could quickly spiral into an ugly, ugly situation. Which will just make Ochoncinco feel like he is back on his reality show. There might be another team in this division…hmmm…I just can’t recall who it is right now.

AFC North Winner: Ravens (11-5)

AFC South

It seems like the Colts have owned the AFC South for decades. But that isn’t true. The AFC South wasn’t even created until 2002. See, it hasn’t even been a decade. Do I think their reign ends this year? Umm, no. People like to try and draw attention to themselves on the internet by being the loudest, most obnoxious and most different (hey it worked for Glenn Beck). While I have been known to go a little over-the-top on occasion (all completely warranted for the record), above everything else I am rational. So, maybe I am destined to have 8 readers forever. I would rather have 8 readers and be correct in picking the Colts than sky-rocket up the google rankings by picking the Texans to go to the Super Bowl while also claiming Peyton Manning was the real father of Kourtney Kardashian’s baby. Until the Colts show sort of chink in their regular season armor (let’s not discuss the playoffs just yet), I have to pick them. Speaking of the Texans, I hate to be the oil spill in the gulf of expectations but I am not buying it. A harder schedule thanks to drawing the NFC East and placing 2^nd in the division last year, an inconsistent QB (last year: 8 games with QB rating over 100; 6 games under 90) and an unproven running game all scream to me ‘unfulfilled expectations’.  The Titans however are getting no pre-season press outside of the fantasy magazines putting Chris Johnson #1 overall. Two years ago the Titans went 13-3 and last year the Titans had a 2,000 yard rusher and their only losses after Week #6 were to the Colts and Chargers. With a full off-season knowing he is the MAN, Vince Young could have a surprisingly solid year. Keep CJ healthy, find a go-to wide receiver (I have my fantasy league money on Kenny Britt) and the Titans could be the surprise team of the year. The Jaguars could have drafted Tim Tebow and at least gotten some publicity. They didn’t so I will give them what they want – to be ignored.

AFC South Winner: Colts (11-5)

Wild Card: Titans (10-6)

AFC West

Is this finally the year? For all outward appearances the Chargers got worse in the offseason. They lost Cromartie, Jamal Williams and maybe Vincent Jackson. Unfortunately they kept Norv Turner and Shawne Merriman is another year removed from his PED-fueled prime. The Chargers just scream ‘collapse’. But I think they hold on for another year. Not because of their greatness but mostly because of the widespread mediocrity across the rest of the AFC West. I think the Broncos are better than they are given credit for in Vegas. I don’t think they are any worse than their 8-8 record last year when they played a tougher schedule (replacing NFC East with NFC West is like going from the SEC to the Mountain West). With Orton under center they at least have an offensive leader. They have also tried to re-design the defense to fit in the 3-4 scheme better than the undersized players who got run over at the end of last year. I think they are as good or better with the loss of Marshall who took his talents to South Beach in a trendsetting move among athletic egotists. Orton became too fixated on a guy that isn’t a playmaker. Now Orton will spread it around and hopefully one or two wide receivers will do more than catch an 8-yard pass and give back 3-yards before being tackled. Their problem will be the run game. Both generating their own and stopping the other team. Some are picking the Chiefs as a sleeper this year. More like coma pick. I have no idea what anyone sees in the Chiefs. They have an overwhelmed head coach, two new coordinators that have done nothing but fail since they left the Belichickian womb, an astoundingly mediocre quarterback, two ‘ok’ running backs and an ok defense. If the Chiefs get within one game of being .500 I will go get that Charlie Weis lap band surgery. They are at best slightly below average. If there is a sleeper pick in the AFC West, it might be the (gulp) Raiders. With a competent QB for the first time in nearly a decade, some young skill players with potential and a consistently solid defense, this is one of those teams that could get inspired by an emotional head coach and make a surprising run. I just think they are still a year and a playmaker or two away. So, the Chargers win the division again in what looks like the most Rock-Paper-Scissors even division in the land.

AFC West Winner: Chargers (9-7)

Playoffs:

Wild Card:

Dolphins @ Chargers: Last year a young QB with a solid defense and good running game from the AFC East came into San Diego and surprised the Chargers in the playoffs. With Norv leading the way it is Déjà vu all over again.

Titans @ Patriots: the Patriots are getting old. Can the wily veterans hang with the young speedsters from the Titans? Not any more. 

Divisional Playoffs:

Dolphins @ Colts: Manning picks apart the Dolphins like a Japanese fisherman in The Cove.

Titans @ Ravens: Titans defense just not enough to hold back Ravens potent offense. Wow, that is a sentence I never expected to write. Maybe I should throw in a Flacco unibrow joke just for old times’ sake.

AFC Championship:

Colts @ Ravens: This game is won by the home team – as their past two playoff games have been. Ravens won in 2009 in Baltimore while the Colts won in 2010 in the Oil Can. For this scenario, let’s assume Ravens get the homefield and the win. Why? I don’t know.  Let’s say cold weather and wind keeps Manning from getting the passing game going while Flacco plays well thanks to the added insulation stretching across his forehead (there it is).

AFC Champions: Ravens

I really didn’t want this to be my AFC title game. It is too boring. Too predictable. Too mainstream. But sometimes it is better to be right than be different.

After months of pretending to get our NFL fix by following the human equivalent of the Westminster Dog Show known as the NFL Combine and the movements of free agents deemed too old, too crazy or too expensive by their previous employers we have finally reached the crown jewel of the NFL offseason: the NFL Draft. Out with the past, and in with the future. There are endless educated guesses out there on who each team will draft but who should all these teams draft? Thankfully, your dutiful analyst here at PFB has scoured the scouting services and waded through Mel Kiper’s hairline to determine who each team should target, if for no other reason than our entertainment.

AFC East

New England Patriots – With the loss of Ben Watson to Cleveland the Patriots have a need at tight end (I know, I can’t believe losing Ben Watson would cause anything but joy in Foxbrough but it is what it is). In steps Ron Gronkowski out of Arizona. Whether he succeeds on the field or not, he can at least act as a guardian to long-lost cousin kicker Stephen Gostkowski, reducing the number of wedgies and swirlies inflicted this year by that bully Tom Brady.

New York Jets – The Jets need to find some offensive help for their second year quarterback and overpowering defense. They have gone out on the free agent market and gotten wide receivers and running backs, so they should use the draft to go get a tight end. How about Dennis Pitta out of BYU? Last year, the Jets made the millions of latino fans in New York happy with the drafting of Mark Sanchez. This year they can make millions of Greek and middle eastern fans happy by loading up on Pitta. 

Miami Dolphins – This offseason, the Dolphins lost linebacker, non-stop talker, cheap-shot artist and drunk driver Joey Porter to the Arizona Cardinals. Drafting Brandon Spikes, he of the linebacker playing, eye-gouging, teammate deifying career at Florida will help address the loss of many of Porter’s doucheiest qualities.

Buffalo Bills – Last year, the Bills played a home game in Toronto to expand their fan base beyond western New York and into Canada. If they can’t put a competitive team on the field, this is their best chance at remaining relevant. Drafting Dan LeFevour, a quarterback out of Central Michigan not only addresses one of their biggest needs but may also bring millions of new Canadian fans to the Bills bandwagon when they get confused and assume he is on loan from playing winger for the Maple Leafs.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers – Last year after Troy Polamalu was lost to injury, the Steelers showed a great weakness in the secondary. Drafting Joe Haden, the cornerback out of Florida will help reduce the dependence on Troy’s hair. Plus after years in Gainesville, Haden knows quite well how to deal with a quarterback with a god complex.

Cleveland Browns – Three years ago, the Browns drafted golden boy Brady Quinn out of Notre Dame to address their quarterback needs. This year they can draft Golden Tate out of Notre Dame to address their wide receiver needs. I mean it can’t work out any worse than last time right?

Cincinnati Bengals – Needing another weapon for Carson Palmer, the Bengals should take Jermaine Gresham, who provides the added bonus of sounding like the best-selling legal novel author around. If the Bengals can’t get players that actually understand the law they can at least get players that sound like they do.

Baltimore Ravens – Still looking for players to help out Joe Flacco, the Ravens should roll the dice on Dez Bryant. Sure, there are some questions marks around Dez – especially about his lying to the NCAA and questionable work ethic but if there is anyone that will take a stab at motivating a young player it is Ray Lewis.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts – Coming off a Super Bowl in which they were torched by Drew Brees, the Colts need to address their inability to put pressure on the quarterback. Jason Pierre Paul out of South Florida can help that need as well as taking the pressure off Pierre Garcon of being the only Pierre on the roster.

Tennessee Titans – With Lendale White becoming ineffective without tequila in his blood it is time to look for a new complement to take some of the load off of Chris Johnson. Not only does Toby Gerhart provide the short yardage power, and leading blocking ability, but can you imagine the nicknames that could be formed for a small black running back and large white running back tandem? Chocolate Lightning and White Thunder? Ebony and Ivory? The I-Spy Backfield? Tennessee Vice? I could do this all day.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Much has been made this offseason of the Jaguars drafting the best player out of nearby University of Florida to help drive interest in the team and improve their anemic offense. I fully endorse this approach and expect Maurkice Pouncey to make the short trip up from Gainesville to Jacksonville.

Houston Texans – The Texans are the ‘Almost’ team. Every year they almost make the playoffs. Matt Schaub has stats almost as good as the best in the league and he almost makes it through the season uninjured. Steven Slaton can make it almost all the way through the game without fumbling. Andre Johnson almost gets the credit he deserves for being the best wide receiver in the game. Thus the Texans should draft Joe McKnight – the USC running back almost as good as his predecessor Reggie Bush who the Texans almost drafted 4 years ago.

AFC West

San Diego Chargers – In a tough offseason for the Bolts, they lost their top running back in LaDainian Tomlinson, a back-up quarterback in Charlie Whitehurst, outrageous child production in Antonio Cromartie and a player known to disappear in big games (Tomlinson again). Clearly they need to sign Travis Henry to address the running and child production needs while drafting Colt McCoy for the back-up quarterback and ‘disappearing in big game’ gaps.

Oakland Raiders – There is little doubt the Raiders will draft Bruce Campbell, the Maryland offensive lineman who is a physical specimen that impressed at the NFL Combine with incredible speed and strength after a completely mundane college career. Really his only chance of success in the NFL is if his hand is still possessed like it was back in Evil Dead 2.

Denver Broncos – The Broncos have a lot of needs. They are looking for linebackers, offensive linemen, receivers and (possibly) a long term solution at quarterback. But there is another position that has been vacated with the trades of Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall over the last two offseasons: unhappy whiner who quits on his team. The Broncos can’t go into the season without at least one on their roster so don’t be surprised to hear the name “Mike Williams” announced at some point with the Broncos on the clock.

Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs are still trying to improve their offense but while the acquisition of Thomas Jones to split carries with Jamal Charles should help, their defense still has holes. Targeting Sean Weatherspoon, the linebacker out of Missouri helps out a defense ranked 31^st against the run last year. Plus he is one of the few players in the draft that would know Kansas City is actually located in Missouri not Kansas. That could be huge when trying to find the stadium for that first game.

Now that the Super Bowl is behind us and the ticker tape has started to soak up all of the urine left on Bourbon Street, it is time to briefly look back and then begin looking ahead. Today we continue our annual tradition of looking back at my pre-season projections and mocking their foolishness while also laying down an early projection for next year.

I wish I could say that this is the earliest projections for the 2010 NFL season but even before Peyton’s tears had dried there were professional prognosticators in a certain desert town suggesting that the Colts were the best bet to participate in Super Bowl XLV. Really? What about getting dominated by the Saints screamed ‘Colts repeat!’ to these guys? The team will be a year older, have another year under a coach that acts like the star of “Tyler Perry’s Weekend at Bernie’s” and have yet another piece of playoff choke luggage to carry but they are going to pick right up where they left off, huh?

As I looked back at last year’s edition of this post, I came across my early prediction for last weekend’s Super Bowl. Thanks to some convoluted rationale this was part of an imagined speech on Hardball (don’t ask) thus the strange introduction:

Chris, I would like to take this opportunity to announce my candidates for the 2010 Super Bowl. That is correct, right here I am happy announce that the Colts and Falcons will play for the Vince Lombardi trophy in Miami in February 2010.”

How about that? Pretty close for a full year out. Too bad things only got worse as the season got closer.  

AFC East:

For pretty much this entire decade, there has really only been one team that is even worth mentioning from the AFC East – Mr. Belichick’s Wonder Emporium. Now, after a season in which Tom Brady hit a child sitting in the 3^rd row with his ACL, there is a new defending conference champion – Gloria Estefan’s Teal Warriors. So do the Dolphins turn the beat around and win it again? Ah no. The odds of Chad Pennington winning another title with no receivers and two mediocre running backs is about as good as the Miami Sound Machine having another top five hit. No, unfortunately for all of us, the Patriots will pick up right where they left off a couple seasons ago. Much is being made about the turnover in the Patriots defense, however it is ignored that all of the players that have been released are older than several new NFL head coaches. A youth movement is a good thing – especially when the Patriot defense wasn’t that good to begin with. No, sorry Pats haters, there is only place where anyone on the Patriots has competition from an AFC East rival and that is from the new Jets quarterback in answering the question ‘Which quarterback has the hottest significant other in the AFC East?’

Winner: Patriots (13-3)

Wild Card: None

Actual Winner: Patriots (10-6)

Actual Wild Card: Jets (9-7)

SD: So the Patriots weren’t quite the team I envisioned (wait until we get to my playoff projections) but at least I can chalk up a win for my projections! Don’t get used to it. While the Patriots aged faster than the cast of 90210, the Jets snuck up to surprise and ride momentum all the way to the AFC title game. Somehow the addition of a wide receiver who can’t catch and a quarterback who doesn’t like to throw to his own receivers were the missing ingredients for the Jets. I can’t be blamed for missing that.

2010 Projection: The trendy pick these days is the Jets based on their late season run into the playoffs. But have we all forgotten the lesson of Matt Ryan already? Sophomore campaigns are always tougher than rookie years. And Sanchez’s rookie year wasn’t really that great. I think the Patriots, though aging, have one more run in them. And let’s not forget about the Dolphins, who didn’t even start playing until October and still nearly made the playoffs.

2010 Winner: Dolphins (Wild Card: Patriots)

AFC North:

Do you remember the movie Groundhog Day? Remember the major city that Bill Murray, Andie MacDowell come from to film Punxsutawney Phil? That is right it’s Pittsburgh. Well, take the hint folks. For yet another year, the Steelers will win and the Ravens will ride the coattails of their defense and the minimum risk offense to a Wildcard berth. Sorry Bengals, I may like you more thanks to your appearance on Hard Knocks (I need more Chad Ochocinco in my life. His saying ‘call me’ as each cheerleader ran by him on last week’s episode was the funniest thing I have seen on TV all year) but they can’t compete with the Steelers and Ravens. And the Browns…oh the Browns. The combination of Eric Mangini, Brady Quinn, Braylon Edwards’ stone hands and rampant staph infections may make for lots of good jokes but not lots of wins.

Winner: Steelers (12-4)

Wild Card: Ravens (10-6)

Actual Winner: Bengals (10-6)

Actual Wild Card: Ravens (9-7)

SD: Well, on the bright side, the Ravens were a Wild Card team, so chalk one up for me. On the downside, the Bengals turned a starring turn in Hard Knocks into a surprise division title while the Steelers decided that this would take this year off and come back stronger next year. Funny, I always thought that was what the off-season was for. If I had written this last week I could say I still haven’t seen anything as funny as Ochocinco telling each cheerleader to call him but then I saw that Private Dancer on this week’s Bachelor. Sorry Chad.

2010 Projection: If Troy Polamalu’s hair returns healthy, it is hard to see the Steelers not regaining their place atop this division. The Bengals just feel like a team that were the beneficiaries of other team’s off years and I still don’t believe in the Ravens, not with a defense getting older by the day and the only growth in Joe Flacco’s game occurring between his eyebrows.

2010 Winner: Steelers

AFC South:

It seems fitting that the geography of the AFC South overlaps with the SEC, because it could be argued that the AFC South is the SEC of the NFL. Both conferences have more than one team that could challenge to be the best in the game; even the worst teams are better than many teams in other conferences and any conference member is thrilled to see a team from Ohio or Michigan on its schedule. So it is only fitting that I think a former SEC quarterback will re-assert his dominance and lead his team to another conference championship. While last season the Titans ended the Colts years of dominance, I don’t buy Kerry Collins two years in a row – especially with a less dominating defense, a harder schedule and still no wide receivers. On the bright side for Tennessee, with a tequila-less Lendale White leading the way, the Titans can eek into the playoffs over the perennial underachieving Jags (speaking of no wide receivers) and Texans (..actually I don’t know why the Texans underachieve every year, sort of like the Georgia Bulldogs).

Winner: Colts (11-5)

Wild Card: Titans (10-6)

Actual Winner: Colts (14-2)

Actual Wild Card: None

SD: The Colts were as solid and boring as advertised. The Titans made a valiant attempt to erase that 0-6 start and make it a clean sweep for me in the AFC South. It is shameful I made a joke about Kerry Collins and Lendale without mentioning Vince Young or Chris Johnson even once. I look forward to plenty of Vince Young / Chris Johnson jokes next year. I am guessing they will involve some combination of CJ looking like a rapper and VY going crazy last year. Thankfully I have a few months to work on them.

2010 Projection: Was the Super Bowl just a momentary blip on the Colts continued domination or was it the tipping point that will send them on a downward spiral that it now appears Super XLII was for the Pats? A little too soon to tell, but it is hard to see the Titans not showing up until week #7 for a second year in a row. Not with Li’l CJ and the real Vinsanity leading the way.

2010 Winner: Titans (Wild Card: Colts)

AFC West:

All reports from San Diego seem to show that Shawne Merriman was able to successfully rehab from last year’s knee injury. Even if he has returned successfully, I think we can all agree he would have been better off taking a cue from LenDale and sworn off Tequila as well. As much as I would love to see the Chargers season imploded by a slutty, bi-curious, reality dating show veteran; even Tila can’t stop the Chargers from winning the AFC West. There is just no other competition. The Broncos don’t have a quarterback and a horrendous schedule that offset an improved defense and running game. The only question around the Raiders and Chiefs this year is to which team has the biggest bust at quarterback. Congratulations Chargers – shots are on Shawne!

Winner: Chargers (11-5)

Wild Card: None

Actual Winner: Chargers (13-3)

SD: Well, the Broncos made the division interesting for at least 8 weeks but in the end the Chargers once again ran away with the AFC West. While it is easy to look back at the Broncos and say they collapsed once again, that is revisionist history. It is forgotten now but their 6 and 0 start was fueled by the Immaculate Deflection at Cincinnati in week #1 and wins against Oakland and Cleveland. The next three wins against Dallas (pre-Miles Austin), the Patriots at home and at the Chargers were impressive at the time but in hindsight the Cowboys were still struggling to find their offensive rhythm (see: overtime win at Kansas City the following week), the Patriots weren’t as strong as their reputations (and they were playing their former offensive coordinator) and the Chargers were coached by Norv Turner and therefore view the months of September and October as optional. Though, this in no way excuses home losses to the Raiders and Chiefs in the final 3 weeks of the season – that was just an embarrassment.

2010 Projection: Philip Rivers and the Chargers receivers continue to grow while at the same time the Chargers running game and defense slowly atrophies. Can the Chargers continue to improve or at least stay equally strong while feasting on the pathetic Chiefs and Raiders? At some point one of these other teams are going to grow up and challenge the Chargers. I think the Broncos are that team and a second year under Josh McDaniels may be the time. Assuming their quarterback gains confidence and they find a defensive coordinator, run defense, offensive line, running game and wide receiver to replace Brandon Marshall. See, they are just that close.  

2010 Winner: Broncos

Playoffs:

Wild Card:

Titans @ Chargers: After LaDanian and Phillip Rivers put 5 touchdowns on the Titans, Jeff Fisher stops second-guessing choosing moustache over full beard long enough to second-guess letting Albert Haynesworth sign with the Redskins.

Ravens @ Colts: Last year Bert Flacco proved that he won’t lose a playoff game for the Ravens. Unfortunately for him, Peyton has proven that he can win a playoff game for the Colts. Ray Lewis takes a stab at stopping him, but fails.

Divisional Playoffs:
Chargers @ Patriots: In the NFL, many hours and many words are spent analyzing teams and games, examining things from every possible angle – from individual position battles to the grass types used in various stadiums. However sometimes analyzing games is pretty simple.  Exhibit A: Norv Turner vs. Bill Belichick.

Colts @ Steelers: In the world of NFL stereotypes this would be a high-flying offense versus a dominating defense. But after the release of Marvin Harrison and the presumed kidnapping of Joseph Addai, the Colts offense won’t set scoring records like previous years. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers won a shootout with the Cardinals in the Super Bowl and the handcuffs are being taken off of Roethlisberger to really run this offense. And as Tahoe hotel hostesses will tell you, Big Ben is tough to handle when he isn’t being handcuffed.

AFC Championship:

Steelers @ Patriots: I consider this one too close to call. Frankly, I would say whichever team hosts this game becomes the winner here. So, you could argue that by placing second in the AFC East last season and securing a slightly easier schedule than 2008 AFC North Champ Steelers, the Patriots clinched another Super Bowl berth this year. Well played Pats. I tell you, Belichick really is a diabolical genius.

AFC Champion: Patriots

SD: Everything about this is so unbelievably wrong, it almost isn’t even worth talking about. Other than an incredibly insightful preview of the Ravens/Colts playoff game that actually did occur the rest of this is about as accurate as predictions on what will happen in the final season of Lost.

2010 Projections: So will last decade’s dynasties continue dominating the AFC for another year or do the new young promising teams step up and show who will be the leading teams in the teens? It is hard to say. But my early feeling is that the tide is turning so my initial call is that your 2010 AFC champs will be the Tennessee Titans after they beat the Steelers in the AFC title game.

Really the only thing we know for sure at this point is that the Chargers won’t play up to their ability. It is comforting to know that as a new decade dawns not everything changes.

We will come back next week with our review/preview of the NFC but this weekend Turner and I are taking a little field trip to JerryWorld. We are off to the NBA All Star Game and will have a full re-cap of the game and what it is like to watch a 110-yard long HD TV. Too bad J.R. Smith isn’t playing, I’m thinking some of his 3-pointers have a chance at hitting the bottom of the screen that the all of the NFL’s punters failed to hit this season.