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	<title>Football Blog, Pro Football Blog, College Football Blog, Sports Blog, Denver Broncos Blog, College Sports Blog &#187; texans</title>
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		<title>Doubling Down on the Divisional Playoffs – 2011 part two</title>
		<link>http://www.profootballblogger.com/nfl-news-and-notes/doubling-down-on-the-divisional-playoffs-2011-part-two/</link>
		<comments>http://www.profootballblogger.com/nfl-news-and-notes/doubling-down-on-the-divisional-playoffs-2011-part-two/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Jan 2012 22:39:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dave</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[NFL News and Notes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[baltimore]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[divisional playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[giants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[green bay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[houston]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.profootballblogger.com/?p=1007</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[No pre-amble today, as I am going to the Heat/Nuggets game tonight and want to save my wittiest insults for the Whore of Akron. Brewing up something about his mother and the 4th quarter. I’m sure it will be GOLD. Let’s get right to the picks. We’ve picked the Saturday games, so time to move [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p>
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<p>No pre-amble today, as I am going to the Heat/Nuggets game tonight and want to save my wittiest insults for the Whore of Akron. Brewing up something about his mother and the 4th quarter. I’m sure it will be GOLD. Let’s get right to the picks.</p>
<p>We’ve picked the <a href="http://www.profootballblogger.com/nfl-news-and-notes/doubling-down-on-the-divisional-playoffs-2011-part-one/">Saturday</a> games, so time to move on to the Sunday games.</p>
<p><strong>Houston @ Baltimore</strong></p>
<p><strong>Halftime: Baltimore (-4.5)</strong></p>
<p><strong>Full Game: Baltimore (-8)</strong></p>
<p>By far the least interesting match-up of the weekend. It isn’t even close. This is the John Mayer of NFL Divisional playoff games. Some <a href="http://www.weblo.com/asset_images/large/Houston_Texans_Cheerleade_473fa15be7b01.jpg">beautiful</a> women will find it inexplicably attractive. I find it dull and struggle to see the attraction.</p>
<p>A rookie quarterback on the road. A stout, but older defense. An elite home playoff team with the most questionable quarterback since Rex Grossmann took a team to the Super Bowl. This game could end up 13-7 or 28-3 or 31-28. I have no feeling for it and after it ends will wake up from my nap say ‘huh’ and go take a shower.</p>
<p>But I do know this: every year one decent team uses momentum from Wild Card weekend to come in and jump on a home team struggling to find its rhythm after a week off. The Jets last year. The Cardinals at Panthers a couple years ago. The Ravens at Titans the same year. The Texans looked so stout at home last week, it is easy to envision Arian Foster running right past the Ravens. On the other side of the ball, is the Ravens offense really that much better than the Bengals? If the Texans can slow down Ray Rice, would anyone in Maryland be willing to bet a crab cake on Joe Flacco leading the team to a playoff win through the air?</p>
<p>But this still requires TJ Yates to play well on the road and ignore the vaguely homoerotic Ball So Hard slogan of Terrell Slugs. And let’s not forget Arian Foster is still a young guy that went undrafted out of college. Haloti Ngata eats those guys for breakfast.</p>
<p>Literally. He calls it his ‘Captain Cook’-ie Crisp cereal.</p>
<p>Texans come out swinging and the Ravens come out sluggish, take the Texans and points at the half.</p>
<p>But Ray Rice-a-roni the Baltimore treat (not to be confused with crack the real Baltimore treat) finds his legs in the 2<sup>nd</sup> half, the defense stuffs the Texans and Joe Flacco’s eyebrow finds Torrey Smith deep a couple times.</p>
<p>Take the Ravens, give the points for the full game.</p>
<p><strong>NY Giants @ Green Bay </strong></p>
<p><strong>Halftime: Green Bay (-5)</strong></p>
<p><strong>Full Game: Green Bay (-8.5)</strong></p>
<p>A few years ago, an up and down Giants team went into Green Bay and shocked the heavily favored Packers in the NFC title game. We all remember this game for Favre’s fitting final throw/interception as a Packer – losing the game in overtime (but he was just having fun out there). But you may not remember the single greatest thing about that game. The introduction of the Tom Coughlin <a href="http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/slides/photos/001/784/826/79162040_crop_650x440.jpg?1326228603">Everest Face</a>!</p>
<p>He may have won a Super Bowl and be on the verge of being fired each year, but for me Coughlin’s career highlight always has been and always will be coaching a game while looking like a mountaineer that survived a fierce storm at 26,000 by gnawing on George Mallory’s femur for energy and warmth.</p>
<p>I may or may not have the motto “those that don’t remember the past are destined to repeat it.’ (in Comic Sans) tattooed on my body, but in this case, I actually think that history works against the G-men.</p>
<p>Where they were once inspired by a coach that some thought was about to turn into Violet Beauregarde after the <a href="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3282/2589072046_8a524bd52b_o.png">blueberry</a> bubble gum, this weekend’s forecast in Green Bay calls for significantly less sinister temperatures.</p>
<p>Will the Giants be as motivated with a coach that doesn’t look like he is about to be wheeled away by the Oompa Loompas or have his nose amputated by a Nepalese surgeon? I doubt it.</p>
<p>In other, more subtle reasons why the Packers will win, Aaron Rodgers is not Brett Favre. None of us have seen his package and he doesn’t distribute the ball to the opposing team like a party host with a tray of mini-pigs-in-blankets.</p>
<p>That Packer team also didn’t have Clay Matthews on it. I imagine a cold evening in Green Bay will mean a huge night for Matthews in his on-going attempt to secure a role in the next Nordic mythology movie.</p>
<p>I say you take the Packers in the first half – they come out fast and come out mean, driving at will and making the inevitable Private Box shots of the Manning clan irrelevant.</p>
<p>In the 2<sup>nd</sup> half I think the Giants slow the Packers and crawl back into the game, with a bomb to Victor Cruz and a long sustained drive by the 2-headed running back tandem.</p>
<p>Giants keep it close and cover that too-big-spread bu,t in the end, their Super Bowl dreams disappear <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Into-Thin-Air-Personal-Disaster/dp/0679457526">Into Thin Air</a>.</p>

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		<title>Doubling Down on Wild Card Weekend – 2012 part one</title>
		<link>http://www.profootballblogger.com/nfl-news-and-notes/doubling-down-on-wild-card-weekend-2011-part-one/</link>
		<comments>http://www.profootballblogger.com/nfl-news-and-notes/doubling-down-on-wild-card-weekend-2011-part-one/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jan 2012 17:59:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dave</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[NFL News and Notes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bengals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cincinnati]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[detroit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[houston]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[new orleans]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NFL wild card]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[saints]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[texans]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.profootballblogger.com/?p=994</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last year, in the inaugural ‘Doubling Down’ series, I had a shockingly successful run in picking both halftime and full time playoff games against the spread.  A smarter man than I would go out on top. Call it a fun experiment and move on with my life to things I am more qualified to write [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p>
<div class="topsy_widget_data topsy_theme_jade" style="float: right;margin-left: 0.75em; background: url(data:,%7B%20%22url%22%3A%20%22http%253A%252F%252Fwww.profootballblogger.com%252Fnfl-news-and-notes%252Fdoubling-down-on-wild-card-weekend-2011-part-one%252F%22%2C%20%22style%22%3A%20%22big%22%2C%20%22title%22%3A%20%22Doubling%20Down%20on%20Wild%20Card%20Weekend%20%E2%80%93%202012%20part%20one%22%20%7D);"></div>
<p>Last year, in the inaugural ‘Doubling Down’ series, I had a shockingly successful <a href="http://www.profootballblogger.com/nfl-news-and-notes/doubling-down-on-the-super-bowl/">run</a> in picking both halftime and full time playoff games against the spread.  A smarter man than I would go out on top. Call it a fun experiment and move on with my life to things I am more qualified to write about. Whatever that may be. </p>
<p>But not me. A few weeks ago I sat a blackjack table in Mandalay Bay until about 1 in the morning. I had been drinking for about 14 hours. I could barely see, let alone think. Yet, the gambling gods had shown favor on me and I was doing pretty well. Until I wasn’t. And when a smarter man would go to bed to save his money to bet on NFL the next morning, I stayed.</p>
<p>And lost it all.</p>
<p>So that is what this is. It is my drunk 1 am visit to a blackjack table. Here if I have a bad week I lose my reputation as an NFL Sharp rather than a pocket full of cash. But, thankfully my reputation is smaller than my bankroll.</p>
<p>So, with nothing at stake beside my good name, let’s dive in and pick each Wild Card game. Let’s start with the Saturday games.</p>
<p><strong>Houston vs. Cincinnati****</strong></p>
<p><strong>Halftime: Houston (-2) </strong></p>
<p><strong>Full Game: Houston (-3)</strong></p>
<p>Am I really picking T.J. Yates to win a playoff game and cover a spread? Yes. Yes I am. The easy argument would be to say I don’t trust Andy Dalton, a rookie QB, on the road against a stout Texans defense; that a healthy Andre Johnson and Arian Foster can take the pressure off TJ. But there is another more important factor in picking the Texans: revenge.</p>
<p>Did you see the <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/These-are-the-best-seats-we-could-get-for-TJ-Yat?urn=nfl-wp13639">seats</a> that the Bengals gave TJ’s parents at Yates’ first start in Cincinnati? That was disrespect if I have ever seen it. TJ is coming out for blood this week. There is no greater motivation then defending the honor of your mother. And make no mistake – by putting Mr. and Mrs. Yates in seats marginally closer to Dayton than to the field, the Bengals essentially pulled out a glove and <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIXaen6EYEc">slapped</a> TJ across the face. IT IS ON. And TJ is bringing Brian Cushing and his ‘supplements’ with him.</p>
<p>In the name of Mrs. Yates, I think the Texans come out strong and roll, give the points at half and across the full game and you too can spend these 3 hours laughing, smiling and reminiscing about the early 1990’s Broncos teams right along with Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips as the Texans roll.</p>
<p>****HUGE ASTERISK: If Yates is truly hurt and Jake Delhomme plays a prominent role in this game, then ignore all of the above and make a run for the hills like an asteroid is going to hit the ocean over the weekend.</p>
<p><strong>New Orleans vs. Detroit</strong></p>
<p><strong>Halftime: New Orleans (-6.5) </strong></p>
<p><strong>Full Game: New Orleans (-11)</strong></p>
<p>Drew Brees pretty much single-handedly won me my fantasy league this year. It is the 2<sup>nd</sup> year in a row I have won this league, which means 1 of 2 things:</p>
<p>1 – as the league is full of lawyers, law school really isn’t as difficult as non-lawyers think it is</p>
<p>or</p>
<p>2 – I am about 9 months away from taking a job away from Mathew Berry and forcing him to try and make a living by writing Crocodile Dundee 4: Is Paul Hogan Is Still Alive?</p>
<p>Basically regardless of the outcome here, Brees has already had a pretty successful 2011 season. At least for me.</p>
<p>As for this game, which is significantly less meaningful than my championship game a couple weeks ago (but whatever), I can’t turn my back on what Bress has done for me. I am loyal like that.</p>
<p>Over the course of 60 minutes, I expect the Lions to make too many mistakes and the unstoppable Mardi Gras float that is the Saints offense to run the Lions over like a little kid who got too greedy chasing down beads dropped in the street.</p>
<p>With the freakiest receiver this side of Justin Blackmon, a solid QB (when healthy) in Matthew Stafford and a solid defensive line (when not suspended) I expect the Lions can keep it close for awhile.</p>
<p>Until the clock strikes midnight and Stafford gets up from a tackle holding his arm and grimacing. Or a Boy Named Suh goes all Ron Artest and tries to climb into the stands and rip the umbrella from Tom Benson’s cold, dead hands (after he rips his throat out – Roadhouse style – obviously).</p>
<p>In short, the Lions, much like their coach, are about as disciplined and mature as the cast of Real World at 3 am. There will be an implosion and it will be ugly.</p>
<p>Take the Lions in the first half &#8211; hope for a 14-10, 17-14 or 21-17 Saints lead and then hide the women and children, take the Saints full game with the points, pop a cold beer and wait for the implosion.</p>

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		<title>The Hierarchy of Hate 2011 – Week #3</title>
		<link>http://www.profootballblogger.com/nfl-news-and-notes/the-hierarchy-of-hate-2011-%e2%80%93-week-3/</link>
		<comments>http://www.profootballblogger.com/nfl-news-and-notes/the-hierarchy-of-hate-2011-%e2%80%93-week-3/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Sep 2011 05:28:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dave</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Hierarchy of Hate]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Much like my vocal cords, THH is recovering a little slowly from last week’s epic game in Tallahassee. While THH was in complete hibernation until it was too late to pick the college games, my voice crept slowly back to life as the week progressed. On Sunday, my voice ranged a soft whisper to, at [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p>
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<p>Much like my vocal cords, THH is recovering a little slowly from last week’s epic game in Tallahassee. While THH was in complete hibernation until it was too late to pick the college games, my voice crept slowly back to life as the week progressed. On Sunday, my voice ranged a soft whisper to, at best, the voice of a guy talking through a hole in his throat. By Tuesday I was starting to sound like Kathleen Turner. By Thursday I had made it all the way back to Wendi Nix.</p>
<p>Really, the only benefit to my scratchy throat was my dead-on sing along to a Johnny Cash song on my I-pod.</p>
<p>Anyway, I have finally recovered from last week’s painful FSU loss. Sadly, the Noles did not. Somehow a team that gave up 23 points to the best team in the land allowed Clemson to put up 35 today. But more on that later.</p>
<p>Let’s set aside the very painful world of college football and focus on the pros.</p>
<p>In honor of one of my all-time favorite Americans, this week is Neighbors week. All the games feature teams playing a team from a neighboring state.</p>
<p>It’s just too bad I didn’t get to this before the college game because I was really excited to label the Nebraska/Wyoming game ‘The Cabelas Bowl’ – a battle between the state that is the home to <a href="http://www.cabelas.com/">Cabela’s</a> and a state that is home to 69% of their consumers.</p>
<p>But instead, we will focus on the big boys. And in honor of these neighborly battles, the games will be decided with one simple question:</p>
<p>What would Mr. Rogers do?</p>
<p><strong>NFL</strong></p>
<p><strong>Houston @ New Orleans</strong></p>
<p>I know Mr. Rogers is remembered as the epitome of wholesome family entertainment but if there is one thing that our religious and Republican leaders have taught me, it’s that the more wholesome and devout someone appears, the more crazy sh*t they like to do when the lights are off. While this might make you think Mr. Rogers would cheer for Houston and their soon-to-be outed Governor Rick Perry (who doth protests way too much), I think we all know that when it comes to debauchery, New Orleans is in a neighborhood all its own. Geaux Saints.</p>
<p><strong>Detroit @ Minnesota</strong></p>
<p>One of the best parts of Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood was when he went to visit the neighborhood of Make-Believe. Unlike fans of rap battles, it would be understandable that anyone that values neighborhoods and neighbors would not like Detroit, but, the neighborhood of Make-Believe is key to understanding why both Mr. Rogers and I would cheer for the Lions. Only someone that spends part of their week in the Land of Make-Believe could ever think that Matthew Stafford could stay healthy for an entire season.</p>
<p><strong>Atlanta @ Tampa Bay</strong></p>
<p>While Mr. Rogers’ entire show was about his neighborhood that was all make-believe. Even the stuff outside the neighborhood of Make-Believe. Mr. McFeely was not a delivery man. He was an actor named David Newell, playing a character named after Fred Rogers’ grandfather. Mr. Rogers’ real neighborhood was the other shows that aired around his show on PBS. So in that way, the inhabitants of Sesame Street were more Mr. Rogers’ neighbors than anyone in Make-Believe land. And anyone that has spent any time on Sesame Street knows we should be nice to our fellow humans. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgCVZxzcZ1s">LeGarrette Blount</a> clearly never watched Sesame Street, so Fred and I are both rooting for the Falcons.</p>

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		<title>No One Cares What You Think</title>
		<link>http://www.profootballblogger.com/nfl-news-and-notes/no-one-cares-what-you-think/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Aug 2011 15:19:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dave</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The invention and widespread use of the internet has done many amazing things. Allows you to instantly see and converse with anyone, anywhere in the world. Brings fantasy sports to those without all day to spend reading newspaper boxscores. Provides access to porn for teenagers trapped in a house where they don’t control the cable [...]]]></description>
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<p>The invention and widespread use of the internet has done many amazing things.</p>
<p>Allows you to instantly see and converse with anyone, anywhere in the world.</p>
<p>Brings fantasy sports to those without all day to spend reading newspaper boxscores.</p>
<p>Provides access to porn for teenagers trapped in a house where they don’t control the cable bill.</p>
<p>Most importantly, it allowed know-nothings like me to spout off about any old subject we feel like discussing.</p>
<p>Whether anyone cares that I think the 2 morons that appeared on CNN this morning representing the Tea Party make the ‘movement’ look less intellectual than a retirement home for former WWE wrestlers, is beside the point. I can put it out there and no one can stop me.</p>
<p>Especially not the 2 tea partiers in question, because I am pretty sure neither can read.</p>
<p>(One of them was even supposedly the Tea Party Chair for the state of Utah, which means people actually listen and follow her and may have even voted for her. For the first time, Big Love isn’t the most embarrassing representative for the state of Utah.)</p>
<p>However, all of those wide open uncensored communication does have a negative side.</p>
<p>People actually believe that when they say something, it matters.</p>
<p>As anyone who has seen those guys standing on street corner proclaiming “the end of the world is n’igh” can attest, there is a difference between speechifying in public and actually influencing how people live.</p>
<p>Where we all walk by that guy muttering ‘nut-job’ under our breath, so do people that stumble upon your insane ramblings on the internet.</p>
<p>The ability to write what you think on a public forum doesn’t mean that your opinion holds any more weight than when it was only espoused from the stool at the corner of the bar.</p>
<p>It just feels like it.</p>
<p>Nowhere is this more apparent than the world of sports blogging.</p>
<p>Everyday millions take to the internet to tell the professionals in their favorite sport why they are complete idiots. They argue, debate and insult.</p>
<p>Yet, the professionals they love/hate so much just don’t care. And that makes them even angrier.</p>
<p>In Denver, Tebowmaniacs and citizens of Broncos country were infuriated when Kyle Orton <a href="http://www.kdvr.com/news/kdvr-orton-says-his-job-is-to-impress-teammates-not-fans-20110808,0,184885.story">said</a> a few weeks ago that he was only concerned with impressing his teammates, not the myopic, misinformed or uneducated fans blindly cheering for Tim Tebow.</p>
<p>But he is absolutely correct.</p>
<p>Whether fans or local sportswriters who spend too much time in tanning booths think that Tebow could play better because he won games in college, or loves Jesus, or seems nice, or whatever the rationale is, doesn’t matter inside the locker room. His teammates see every day that Kyle Orton is the better player and all they care about is winning.</p>
<p>Just because fans have more avenues than ever before to yell their thoughts doesn’t change that, as a wise man once said, those thoughts are like a cow’s opinion. It is moo.</p>
<p>The internet opens up the world to any idiot (including this one) to say what he thinks, but it doesn’t mean that what he thinks has any more weight.  </p>
<p>And now we have Twitter, which adds an even more direct route to the teams and players. Now, the unwashed masses not only can post their random thoughts in public, they can say them directly to the faces of the players.</p>
<p>Well, not directly to their faces. Most people that use the internet to critique and insult people would turn into groupies if they ever met the people they so hate face to face.</p>
<p>Twitter has turned the internet from a guy with a megaphone and a Jesus Saves sign into a conversation. This can be good and bad.</p>
<p>Arian Foster, after tweaking his hamstring, took the opportunity to lash out at people worried about his health for strictly fantasy reasons (poor Arian must not realize there are only 14 Texans fans in the country, so the only reason that anyone cares about him is fantasy). This led professional blowhard Colin Cowherd to take the opportunity to <a href="http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2011/08/28/colin-cowherd-now-has-a-twitter-beef-with-arian-foster/">respond</a>. And then Foster responded back.</p>
<p>I think we can all agree that Cowherd is a jackass who knows as much about sports as my cat (and really whose only redeeming quality in life is his relationship with Michele Beadle), so Foster broke the cardinal rule for athletes. He reacted.</p>
<p>Twitter provides a false sense of intimacy with those we follow. We receive messages that look a lot like a text, from those we follow. It makes us think they are looking for responses and a conversation, further empowering all of us to think our relationships with athletes aren’t at arms-length but as friends when the vast majority of the time it is just a one way monologue.</p>
<p>Foster reacting to both fans and then a professional moron only exacerbates the problem. Now people know they can get to Foster. And more will.</p>
<p>Foster needs to learn from other athletes and recognize that Twitter can bring you closer to fans. But it also makes fans thinks they are closer to you.  </p>
<p>People already think that they can influence the sports and teams they love by yelling the loudest.</p>
<p>I shudder to think of what the world will be like if they actually do have that influence.</p>

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		<title>Intelligent Design and the NFL Quarterback</title>
		<link>http://www.profootballblogger.com/nfl-news-and-notes/intelligent-design-and-the-nfl-quarterback/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Aug 2011 01:50:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dave</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Last week ESPN released a ‘revolutionary’ new stat purported to provide a better measure of a quarterback than traditional statistics. The goal was to include such concepts as ‘Win Probability’ and ‘Clutch Index’ along with the standard measurables to definitively identify the best quarterback. But just like ESPN’s belief that we all can’t hear enough [...]]]></description>
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<p>Last week ESPN released a ‘revolutionary’ new stat purported to provide a better measure of a quarterback than traditional statistics.</p>
<p>The goal was to include such concepts as ‘Win Probability’ and ‘Clutch Index’ along with the standard measurables to definitively identify the best quarterback.</p>
<p>But just like ESPN’s belief that we all can’t hear enough about Brett Favre or Tiger Woods and his ex-caddie, this new stat fails to do anything beyond making ESPN feel more self-important.</p>
<p>I have done enough railing against the statistical revolution in sports and its myopic conclusions recently that I am starting to feel like Joe Morgan in the face of Moneyball or Pope Urban VIII punishing Galileo.</p>
<p>In fact, maybe theology is the best explanation for my sports world view. In a world increasing ruled by the science of sports statistics, I am decidedly in favor of the model of Intelligent Design: that some unseen or intangible force holds responsibility for many of the measurable things we see.</p>
<p>No two quarterbacks better define this unseen truth than Matt Schaub and Mark Sanchez, the two flip-sides of the statistical debate: one whose worth is greatly exaggerated, and one whose worth is diminished for the exact same reasons.</p>
<p>(I can’t believe I am about to write something positive about a Jet. If you see small bits of foodstuff on your screen, then you know my lunch was a casualty of this experiment.)</p>
<p>Entering his 3<sup>rd</sup> year, Sanchez has the statistics of a below-average NFL quarterback. No matter which way you <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/12482/mark-sanchez">slice</a> his stats, they scream mediocrity (unless he faces a 4<sup>th</sup> and 1 in overtime of a hot September game, then he is pretty much unstoppable).</p>
<p>Even the new all-encompassing, all-knowing, all-seeing ESPN <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6834507/nfl-peyton-manning-top-two-qbr-seasons">Total Quarterback Rating</a> stat doesn’t think much of The Sanchize. Sanchez’s finest season (2010) ranks as the 62<sup>nd</sup> best season of the last three years, well behind such notables as Shaun Hill’s 2008 season with San Francisco (#42), Seneca Wallace’s 2008 campaign with Seattle (#46) and Dan Orlovsky’s 2008 Lions season (#53).</p>
<p>I wonder how QBR accounts for Orlvosky running out the back of his own <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGs1VuT6FEw">endzone</a>? Did that help his Win Probablility or Clutch Index?</p>
<p>Despite Sanchez being slightly less valuable than Ryan Fitzpatrick and slightly more valuable than Carson Palmer, the Jets have posted a cumulative record of 23-14 and found their way into the AFC title game the last two years with him under center.</p>
<p>No stat is going to prove what anyone has seen if they have watched Sanchez.</p>
<p>The guy finds a way to win.</p>
<p>Whether it is throwing a hail mary that ends up becoming pass interference and a first and goal or finding Santonio Holmes on an 8-yard slant that becomes an overtime touchdown, Sanchez wins games, Orlovsky or Hill could only dream of winning.</p>
<p>Every day, Sanchez defenders try and make the same arguments about Sanchez that (probably a lot of the same) people make about Jeter: ignore his stats, the guys is clutch.</p>
<p>My long-lost brother Jason McIntyre of The Big Lead has wars of words with Sanchez haters everyday on my Twitter timeline. I want to be one of the haters, I really do. I want big, fat Rex to go away, give birth to that baby he has been carrying for 3 years and just shut up. I want the Jets to be humbled. But I can’t do it.</p>
<p>Every time I doubt and mock, Sanchez finds a way to stick it to me one more time.</p>
<p>I know many defenders look to Sanchez’s playoff record as proof of his greatness (or at least his Better-than-Seneca-Wallace-ness). But look at his 4 wins. Two are against the Bengals and Chargers, which is sort of like beating Ohio State and Oklahoma in BCS title games. The third was a rubber match against a confident/cocky Patriots team that the Jets knew better than Rex Ryan knows his wife’s bunions. The fourth was the win in Indy last year, that pretty much sums up Sanchez perfectly: painful stats (18-31, 189 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT), but out-scored Indy 10-6 in the 4<sup>th</sup> to win 17-16.</p>
<p>Forget all statistical rationale and just accept the fact that Sanchez wins games.</p>
<p>Sanchez’s worst case career trajectory is Brad Johnson: a guy that never had a losing season as a starter until the age of 36; had decent statistics (career 82.5 QB Rating, with a peak of 90) and won a Super Bowl with a strong defense.</p>
<p>He wasn’t going to win you a fantasy league title, but he might win your favorite team a Super Bowl.</p>
<p>In contrast there is Matt Schaub, a statistical superstar who will never win your team even a 10<sup>th</sup> regular season game.</p>
<p>In ESPN’s God-of-Quarterbacks-stat, Schaub’s 2009 season, comes in as the 9<sup>th</sup> best season of any quarterback in the last three years. Even his 2010 season, when he personally submarined one of my fantasy teams, comes in as the 13<sup>th</sup> best season – ahead of some guy named Aaron Rodgers, who apparently didn’t have a very good 2010 season. The Texans record in those 2 years is 15-17.</p>
<p>Schaub’s career record is 25-31. More importantly, can anyone remember one single time Schaub marched the Texans down the field when they most needed a win? I would ask a Texan fan, but I think it is more likely I could meet and ask Bigfoot.</p>
<p>Schaub is the king of putting up gawdy <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/5615/matt-schaub">stats</a> until the game is on the line and then disappearing faster than Steve Slaton’s fantasy relevance. Schaub’s (traditional) QB rating is nearly 30 points higher in games the Texans win. When winning his QB rating is 112, when losing 92, when tied 76.</p>
<p>Schaub is going to always be the guy that statisticians and NFL scouts love more than fans. He will post decent stats and will make some pretty throws doing it. He will always get lots of chances, and teams will mistakenly give up too much in trades and salary in the belief they can turn those stats into wins. But his team will never win. He will never lead a drive in the final minutes to win an important playoff game. He just doesn’t have it in him.</p>
<p>In short, where Sanchez is Brad Johnson re-incarnate, Schaub looks an awful lot like Marc Bulger.</p>
<p>I know which one I would rather have on my team.</p>
<p>The guy with the Super Bowl ring.</p>

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		<title>Drafting More than Beer 2011 – Part One</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Apr 2011 13:06:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>dave</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Draft week is finally here; real, concrete news out of the NFL that is more about players than lawyers. I know a bunch of lawyers. The last thing I want is lawyers to be the key players in my sports soap operas. Strangely it is also the week in which NFL teams become most like [...]]]></description>
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<p>Draft week is finally here; real, concrete news out of the NFL that is more about players than lawyers.</p>
<p>I know a bunch of lawyers. The last thing I want is lawyers to be the key players in my sports soap operas.</p>
<p>Strangely it is also the week in which NFL teams become most like politicians &#8211; you know &#8211; former lawyers that decided to ‘give back’ (i.e. – the power of running a firm full of other lawyers wasn’t enough for their massive egos). No matter what head-scratching moves a team makes in or leading up to the draft, the team will act like they just chose the right goblet from the Grail Knight.</p>
<p>On draft day, Cam Cameron acted like he sincerely believed one-legged Tim Ginn was the missing piece from a Dolphin Super Bowl run.</p>
<p>On draft day, the Forty-Niners convinced themselves Alex Smith was the heir apparent to Steve Young, rather than Jim Druckenmiller.</p>
<p>Draft day, where optimism really does spring eternal.</p>
<p>Of course, that isn’t the case. If history has taught us anything, it is that most of these high draft picks can at best aspire to an NFL career long enough to qualify them for a pension (assuming the NFLPA gets a pension in the coming labor agreement).</p>
<p>But that won’t stop each team from making the heartfelt case that the newest member of the organization will be the one hoisting the Lombardi trophy.</p>
<p>But which players will fail to meet those lofty expectations? I’m so excited for the draft I flew to Charlotte tonight to get the low-down on the first overall pick right from the source. Maybe its a sign, maybe it isn’t, but on the way in from the airport I saw a construction site at least 2 blocks long with a sign reading ‘Future Home of Cecil Newton’s Church That He Really Did Pay For All by Himself’.</p>
<p>Let’s go team by team through the first round and identify the players they should draft. I won’t pretend that I know what these teams will actually do, and have little evidence of teams following my advice (other than my epic guidance for the Jets to draft Mark Sanchez two years ago) but that doesn’t stop me from telling them what they should do.</p>
<p>And by ‘should do’ I mean ‘the draft pick that I think would be most fun for them to take’ not ‘will definitely make them better’.</p>
<p><strong>#1 &#8211; Panthers</strong> – General consensus is that Cam Newton will be drafted by the Panthers. And who am I to argue. Jimmy Clausen has gotten his last two coaches fired, would you want him to be your franchise QB? Me neither. Some teams are scared off by Newton’s off-field transgressions (felonies, 3 schools in 3 years, transparent auctioning of his skills to the highest bidder), but I think Carolina is uniquely suited to ignore this. Their home state school is led by Butch Davis who has run a clean program once in his coaching career, when he coached the Browns, and we know how that turned out (24-34 record). If willing to hire a perennial cheat like Davis, I would imagine most North Carolinians would almost look with pride at Newton using the transfer payments he received to attend Auburn to help repair his father’s church.</p>
<p><strong>#2 – Broncos</strong> – Marcel Dareus fits a glaring need for the Broncos along their defensive line. A glaring need that has been present for so long, it is almost becoming it’s own tradition unlike any other. Beside adding some size and skill to the  Broncos front line, I also like imagining John Fox (who isn’t the youngest coach in the league) and John Elway (who took his fair share of hits to the helmet) trying to keep Marcel Dareus and Darcel McBath straight.</p>
<p><strong>#3 – Bills</strong> – You would think that as bad as the Bills have been for years, they would look for a flashy player – a quarterback or receiver to drum up interest among their bi-country fan base. However, they are smart and recognize a team should build from within. Offensive Line and defensive front seven. The Bills are so smart they have have a Harvard man under center! That is why they will grab potential superstar linebacker Von Miller from Texas A&amp;M. Miller could be the best linebacker they have had since Cornelius Bennett played. A player taken when the Bills were led by another Harvard man, Marv Levy. See, with all these Ivy leaguers, the Bills are smart. They aren’t any good at football, but they sure are smart.  </p>
<p><strong>#4 – Bengals</strong> – With both Chad <span style="text-decoration: line-through;">Ochocinco</span> <span style="text-decoration: line-through;">Johnson</span> Washedupo and Terrell Owens most likely on their way out of Cincy as soon as the Bengals are allowed to release them, it is important to get Jordan Palmer some help. You can’t go wrong with Julio Jones who looks like he has all the skills to be a star. This is such an obvious pick, that I hear VH1 has already contacted Julio about his own TV series.  I like to think the show is about Julio helping kids that get picked on at the playground to learn to stand up to bullies. Then they can call it ‘Me and Julio Down By the Schoolyard’.  </p>
<p><strong>#5 – Cardinals</strong> – The Cardinals went from perennial Super Bowl contenders to the bottom of the worst division in the NFL when Kurt Warner decided he would rather dance on primetime than play for them. After a season of using quarterbacks that wouldn’t be hired to be Adam Sandler’s stunt double in The Longest Yard, the Cardinals need to grab Blaine Gabbert. He is a lock. What could go wrong with the Cardinals drafting a tall, immoble, white quarterback whose last name ends in ‘rt’?</p>
<p><strong>#6 &#8211; Browns</strong> – AJ Green, the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2DXPALzcio">ridiculously</a> talented wide out from Georgia fills a big hole for the Browns. Let’s just hope the Browns have better luck with him than the last WR they drafted known for his one-handed catches in college. Once Braylon Edwards got to Cleveland the only thing he could catch was <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4534215">pity</a> and scorn from LeBron’s hangers-ons.</p>
<p><strong>#7 – Forty-Niners</strong> – Unwilling to accept that the Alex Smith era is need of euthanization, the Forty-Niners continue to try and improve their defense to off-set Smith. To put some more skill in front of all-world linebacker Patrick Willis, the Niners should grab Robert Quinn. Sure, he didn’t play last season after taking illegal benefits from agents, but let’s face it, the Forty-Niners haven’t played for most of this decade. Call it a wash.</p>
<p><strong>#8 – Titans</strong> – Still looking to replace Albert Haynesworth’s pass rush that jumped at Dan Snyder’s millions years ago, the Titans should reach for Cameron Jordan. Not only will he give them a edge pass rusher, but could open up a whole new population of potential season ticket holders, when frat boys from all over the south buy game tickets after hearing the Titans have acquired Jordan, assuming he is a former sorority girl that has joined the Titans cheerleading squad.  </p>
<p><strong>#9 – Cowboys</strong> – There are three things Jerry Jones loves in this world. Meddling with his football team, bringing in players with questionable character and his alma mater Arkansas Razorbacks. I give you the perfect storm of Jones’ incompetence: Ryan Mallett.</p>
<p><strong>#10 – Redskins</strong> – The Redskins need help everywhere except quarterback where Rex Grossmann looks to be a perennial Pro Bowler. I see them going for defense – specifically Prince Amukamara. As every Bronco fan remembers, Mike Shanahan has a fetish for drafting cornerbacks. Also, I think of this as tossing a bone to the idiot Birther movement. Just think of the jokes they can make with a guy whose name sounds like African royalty in the same city as President Obama. Those jokes would probably be hilarious. At least to other people dumb enough to be birthers.</p>
<p><strong>#11 – Texans</strong> – In the mistaken belief that their offense isn’t a problem, the Texans should look to add more playmakers on defense so this can be the year they finally live up to their annual sleeper contender status. Justin Houston, a linebacker out of Georgia is the perfect fit. 6’3”, 270 pounds with a 4.6 40-yard dash. Plus his last name is Houston! And coming from Georgia he is accustomed to his team failing to meet overblown pre-season expectations.</p>
<p><strong>#12 – Vikings</strong> – It looks like it might finally be the end of the Favre era. Let’s all commemorate the falling of an American hero, by pouring our Vicodin out on the curb. Needing a replacement for Favre, the Vikings should turn to Andy Dalton. Sure, there are some <a href="http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/20/red-hair-a-red-flag-for-andy-dalton/">concerns</a> his red hair may prevent him from succeeding in the pros, but with the Vikings playing in a dome and Minnesota’s long winters at least we won’t have to worry about Dalton failing because of the sun’s debilitating effects on his fair skin.</p>
<p><strong>#13 – Lions</strong> – After just 3 or 4 games, the injury bug impacted Jahvid Best’s rookie campaign for the Lions last year and resurrected concerns about him from college that he can’t stay healthy. If Matt Millen were still in charge he would just go draft Ryan Williams this year despite taking a running back last year. Millen already had experience blowing a draft pick on an overrated Va Tech running back when he took Kevin Jones in 2004. Sigh, I miss Matt Millen.</p>
<p><strong>#14 – Rams</strong> – New Rams owner Stan Kroenke wants to make a big splash with his first draft. He wants to make the big-name pick that will draw attention back from the Cardinals and Albert Pujols’ on-going contract drama. Most importantly he wants to help 2<sup>nd</sup> year quarterback Sam Bradford. What name makes the most sense to draw excitement to the Rams? If I have said it once, I have said it never, nothing gets fans excited like an offensive lineman from Wisconsin. Gabe Carimi is just the man to get the City by the Arch talking.</p>
<p><strong>#15 – Dolphins</strong> – The Dolphins just can’t trust injury-prone Ronnie Brown or mellow-dude Ricky Williams to handle the running game. It is time to start finding young legs to take some of the load. Bruising, consistent Mark Ingram would be the perfect answer but I can’t be the only one thinking that giving Mark Ingram Senior an excuse to visit Miami is a bad <a href="http://articles.nydailynews.com/2008-09-05/sports/17906552_1_arrest-warrant-laundering-mark-ingram">idea</a> if we want to win the War On Drugs.</p>
<p><strong>#16 – Jaguars</strong> – After years of drafting bustastic wide receivers in the first round, the Jaguars are finally starting to build their defense so that they can still win games, while their perennially mediocre offense sputters along and their fan base continues to shrink. To help both problems, the Jags can draft Jimmy Smith out of CU. Not only will he solidify the Jags’ secondary, but Jags fans can just recycle their old wide receiver Jimmy Smith jerseys and reminisce about the good old days when they were relevant.</p>
<p><em>We will back to finish out the rest of the first round later this week.</em></p>

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