As I sit to write this, my mind isn’t on football, it’s on basketball. College basketball has been on my TV for the last 24 hours like that Friends episode where Joey and Chandler get free porn: afraid it will be gone if I turn off the TV, I keep it on 24 hours a day.

The NBA on the other hand, much like the Philadelphia Eagles, have proven that the more great athletes you have, the more disposable you become. Filled with the greatest collection of talent in a generation and building on 3 or 4 great years that saw the resurgence of the Lakers, Celtics and the creation of the Heatles, the NBA has decided to take the year off.

I guess they decided if it worked for Dave Chapelle, it will definitely work for them.

Of course he lost his TV show.

While basketball is being defined as both a beginning (college) and ending (NBA), football, outside of the depraved showers of the Penn State locker room, is defined at the moment is ‘in between’.

College football is in between the marquee mid-season match-ups such as LSU/Alabama and Oregon/Stanford that have shaped the BCS title race and the late season match-ups that will finalize the Bowl schedule – Bedlam in Oklahoma and the SEC title game.

The NFL is in the late season, where the true contenders start to separate themselves from the early season pretenders (paging Detroit Lions, Detroit Lions, Reality is holding for you) but not yet to the point where playoff spots are being locked. At least outside of the NFC West where the Niners are on the verge of clinching the NFL’s equivalent of the PAC 12 South.

For the next couple of weeks, the entire NFL world sits in limbo. No conclusions reached just more questions and clues. Which is fine for most people because anticipation is at least half of the fun of sports. But for people writing about sports, it means generating stories out of thin air. Whether it is digging around and looking for anything that is even tangentially interesting relative to the Penn State scandal (see: Sports by Brooks) or just making up dumb arguments to keep a dialog alive (see: Bleacher Report and ESPN).

After spending weeks analyzing the Tim Tebow phenomenon from every angle short of asking what uncircumcised kids in the Philippines think of him, I have run out of things to say. Until something actually happens, there is only so much to talk about.

And so we all wait together.

But as a bright spot today I am in between something else: in between a busy fall of work and a long weekend in Vegas with the THH crew beginning Thursday. With Vegas on my mind, the THH theme this week is simple. Given the opening spread, which team would (will) you bet on?

College

Nebraska at Michigan (-2.5)

If it were October 2010, this would be a fascinating match-up of 2 of the most exciting playmakers in football: Michigan QB Denard Robinson and Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez. Unfortunately a year later and the weaknesses of each have been exposed. Robinson can throw the ball only marginally better than Mr. Robinson, Eddie Murphy’s old SNL character. Martinez is as consistent under center as acting legend A Martinez’s work schedule. If I were a betting man (wait, I AM a betting man), I take Nebraska here. Nebraska has about the only defense in the Big Ten athletic enough to contain Denard. And God help Michigan if they have to rely on a passing game. As Michigan receiver Junior Hemingway might say about the UM passing game.

The ball leaves his hand; launched into the clear, blue sky.

It hits the cold, unforgiving turf.

The faces of his receivers show frustration and anger.

It is real. It is ugly.

Colorado @ UCLA (-11)

It would be easy to paint this game as an opportunity for the Buffaloes to exact revenge on the coach that deserted them and sent them from perennial national contender to Big-12 Pac-12 doormat. But then you realize that when Rick Neuheisel left Boulder most of these players were so young that they were still eating their own boogers. The Buffaloes do not care about Neuheisel’s past but, more importantly, they do not play football well. UCLA, as crazy as it is to imagine, still has a chance to be the sacrificial virgin that gets slaughtered by Oregon in the Pac 12 title game. The Buffaloes won their first ever Pac-12 game last week and I fear that a level of satisfaction now permeates the team – at least they got that off their shoulders. I think the Bruins roll the Buffs and both CU fans that still care more about football than ski season, curse Neuheisel once again.

NFL

Chargers @ Chicago (-4)

Is there anyone outside of the sports books and Chargers owner’s box that still think Norv Turner can coach this team? How is this only a 4-point game? Are the sportsbooks banking on Philip Rivers seeing Jay Cutler across the field and playing like he did when he would blow out Cutler’s Broncos? I don’t see it, mostly because Philip Rivers seems to have become the quarterback equivalent of Sean Alexander ‘one year too late’ and comparing the Bears defense to those old Bronco defenses is like comparing Homeland to NCIS –two things trying to achieve the same goal but one being vastly superior at it.

The Bears should roll to an easy win and after the Broncos beat the Jets to tie for the division lead, maybe the Chargers leadership will finally realize that Norv and this Charger team peaked about 3 years ago and it is time to blow it up and start over.

Bengals @ Ravens (-9)

It is an odd numbered week in the NFL, so that must mean that the Ravens will play well. That makes as much as sense as anything else the Ravens have done this year, so I will go with it. The Bengals have been a nice story and Andy Dalton certainly looks like a young Brad Johnson but I think their time near the top of the division has reached its end. It was fun while it lasted and we will always be able to look back at the first 2 months fondly, like a warm summer in high school. Though with his fair skin, I imagine no summer under a scorching Texas sun is remembered fondly by Dalton.

Will Joe Flacco lead the Ravens past the Bengals by double-digits? That’s as sure a bet as saying Reverend Ray Lewis never broke one of the Ten Commandments.

Oh. Hmmm. Yeah, this seems like a game to tease down to -2. Tease with the Bears? Free money.

We are just 2 short days away from a new NFL season, there is a touch of cool in the air, and Bret Favre is still sitting on a farm doing anything his wife asks in the hopes she forgets about all of that Jenn Sterger sexting. Today is a good day.

It is also time for me to unveil my picks to win each conference and the eventual Super Bowl champion. While I would typically pause here to note that my prediction is as meaningless as all other predictions and should therefore be used for entertainment purposes only, that is no longer the case.

Last year I picked the Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl before the season and then over the course of the playoffs proceeded to go 13-9 in my picks (both first half and full game against the spread).

I’m basically exactly like Jimmy the Greek, less all of the racism and sexism, so you can take what I have to say as the TRUTH, and feel comfortable betting your life savings on it.

Actually don’t do that.

Really. Really. Don’t.

AFC East

There are 2 separate and equally fascinating races in the AFC East. First, between the Patriots and Jets to see who wins the AFC East title. Second, between the Dolphins and Bills for worst record and first opportunity to draft Andrew Luck. I am actually a little more intrigued by the 2^nd race, but that is for another day. I actually believe the Jets will find a way to win the AFC East this year. Part of that is derived from Mark Sanchez having another year under center, his inexplicable ability to win games he shouldn’t, the continued focus on putting more and better weapons around him and his dreamy gaze on the cover of this month’s GQ. I go weak in the knees when faced with his heart melting smile. I am also starting to think that Bill Belichick is trying to recreate late career Mike Shanahan. His ego tells him that because of earlier success he can do anything and be right. He doesn’t address glaring weaknesses (receivers). He brings in malcontents and believes his unique power is enough to control them (Ochocinco, Haynesworth) and his aging team’s playoff performance gets worse every year.

AFC East Winner:  Jets 11-5

Wild Card:  Patriots 10-6

AFC North

The AFC North makes me sad. I want things to change in the AFC North. I really do. I have spent 2 days trying to come up with a rationale for why the Steelers will falter or at least a joke about Roethlisberger raping someone. I can’t find one. Ben even got married! Until he has a late career Favre-ian scandal with a young woman we may not even have Big Ben jokes to make anymore. Sad, sad day. The Ravens tread water every year and try to get better to compete with the Steelers but never quite make it. They are the Kourtney Kardashian of the AFC North – not bad in her own right, but always playing 2^nd fiddle to her more famous sibling with a devious sexual past. This would mean that the Browns are Khloe Kardashian– not on the same level as her sisters but gaining some fame over the last year thanks to a new acquisition (yes, I just equated Lamar Odom to Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis). I guess that makes the Bengals, Bruce Jenner. Both had success many, many years ago but are now just sad, hollow shells of their former selves. Though in fairness, Bruce has had more work done to improve his appearances than the Bengals have.

Winner: Steelers 12-4

Wild Card: Ravens 10-6

AFC South

Can we just skip this one for now? Until we know the health of Peyton Manning, all predictions for the AFC South are meaningless. With a healthy Peyton for the majority of the season, the Colts run away with a bad division. Without Peyton, the AFC South turns into the Big East, and some team will get a game above .500 on the final Sunday to gain an undeserved post-season bid. The popular money is on the Texans, but until Gary Kubiak and Matt Schaub do anything but get the experts hot and bothered, I can’t trust them. The Titans are relying on Chris Johnson and 2 Seattle transplants (Hasselbeck, Locker) to carry them this year, though, the history of tiny running backs and players from Seattle are not promising. The Jaguars are looking to re-create the 2006 Denver Broncos season, in which a highly drafted rookie QB comes in and completely undermines the confidence of decent but not great veteran. We know how that one turns out. Basically, none of these teams should win the division. Let’s just assume Peyton is fully healthy for at least 12 games and give this one to the Colts again. Easier than trying to make an argument for why the Texans will suddenly learn how to win close games.

Winner: Colts 10-6 (Actually this could be any team. Someone will win the AFC South at 10-6 and lose in the first round of the playoffs)

AFC West

It has been 9 months since the end of the 2010 season, and I still can’t figure out how the Chiefs won the AFC West. It is like making the movie A-Team, it seemed reasonable at the time, but in hindsight just leaves you wondering what happened. Needless to say, it is hard to fathom how the Chiefs repeat. Sadly, it seems like the AFC West is all Chargers all the time. The homer in me wants to believe the Broncos will be vastly improved and be the sleeper of the division but I just can’t suspend my disbelief that far. The Broncos dropped from 8-8 to 4-12 thanks to an epically bad defense and a running game that was more imaginary than a game of quidditch. If John Fox can resurrect that running game and defense, Willis McGahee and Elvis Dumervil may finish 1-2 in Comeback Player of the Year voting and the Broncos could sniff a winning record. After showing some improvement last year, it is hard to see the Raiders improving any more. The Chiefs play a harder schedule this year, thank to winning the division so they should predictably fall back. That leaves the Chargers to pick up the scraps and win the division one last time before moving up the I-5 to Los Angeles.

Winner: Chargers 10-6

Wild Card

Patriots at Chargers: Hey, if the Mavs can win a NBA Championship, maybe this really is the year of the perennial also-ran. Chargers win.

Ravens @ Colts: With Ray Lewis on the field, a stabbing pain is always suspected to be a knife wound. Unfortunately for Colts fans, that is just Peyton’s neck getting slammed to the turf by Haloti Ngata. Ravens win.

Division Round

Chargers at Steelers: Nevermind. Guess it isn’t the year for the also-rans. Maybe Mark Cuban can buy the Chargers with his massive earning from Avion tequila and find a way to finally win them a championship after he moves them to L.A. Steelers win.

Ravens at Jets: An ugly game, and not just because Rex Ryan and Joe Flacco are prominently involved. The Ravens have been looking for a way to get their passing game going for years and yet to find it. A blustery January day in New Jersey is not the place to find it. Jets win.

AFC Championship

Jets at Steelers: A re-match of last year – way to go out on a limb with that one, Dave – that will probably play out in much the same way. Picking the Steelers to beat the Jets, is dull, unexciting and expected. Just like this game will be. But at least, it features 2 teams that no one likes, outside of the legion of bandwagon fans that have emerged over the last few years.

Steelers, 2011 AFC Champion.

Ugh.

There are two old clichés that have defined much of what I believe about sports:

(1) Those that don’t learn from the past are destined to repeat it

And

(2) I am from Missouri; you have to show me something to make me believe it

Basically until I see something that convinces me otherwise, I am going to rely on what has happened before. While it occasionally keeps me from feeling like a genius for calling the out of nowhere championship run, for the most part this keeps me from falling into the same old traps that repeatedly suck in others.

Over the years I have accumulated a number of these assumptions that I hold to as religiously as ESPN holds to the belief that the entire country only cares about the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies. They have served me well, been repeatedly proven correct and, as Chuck D said, allow me to write don’t believe the hype.

Some of my core commandments:

 - Notre Dame football will be overhyped and ultimately end up mediocre

- A politician that cheats on his wife will always choose a fat, unattractive woman

 - Virginia Tech football will lose one or two games each year that they shouldn’t

- If the side effects of a drug are worse than the ailment being treated, that drug isn’t worth taking

- The Cowboys will disappoint

- The Texans will end the season within a game of being .500

- Always bet on him if there is a heavy favorite in non Triple Crown horse races

- Sportswriters will always believe it was better in the past

However, something is happening that is making me worry that at least one of my bedrock beliefs is in jeopardy of being proven wrong. Naturally, this leads me to wonder: what could that mean for the rest?

For years, the Mavericks have leveraged a deep, experienced team to achieve a solid regular season record and high playoff seeding. However, outside of a 2006 run that resulted in a painful loss to the Heat in the Finals, this consistent regular season success has ended in early playoff disappointment.

It had reached the point where it had become a given. The Mavs would raise hopes as one of the premiere teams in the NBA during the regular season, before going all Tony Romo once the playoffs arrived.

But now, the Mavs have already survived an upset bid by the perennial sleeper Trail Blazers and vanquished the defending champion Lakers.

Last night, they took a 1 game lead on the Team Formerly Known As The SuperSonics Before They Were Stolen By A Bastard From Oklahoma (or TFKATSSBTWSBABFO as I call them).

Unless the TFKATSSBTWSBABFO find some way to slow down Dirk Nowitzki, who reigned down more bombs than were dropped in the London Blitz, the Mavs could be well on their way to the NBA Finals once again.

Frankly, this is more Earth shattering to my worldview than Thor being the highest grossing movie for 2 weeks in a row.

If the Mavs, in their advanced age with no major team or coaching changes can suddenly find a new gear in the post-season and a new will to win does this mean that other opinions that I have taken as a given could also buck years of tradition and suddenly find new success?

Can a team that I annually write off and mock others for believing in, suddenly blow all of my expectations out of the water?

If so, who?

 There is one logical contender. A team that is consistently highly regarded, with a lot of talent that consistently fails to meet expectations. The team is also experienced and has seen little turnover. A couple supporting players being brought in could find a way to overcome a coach and team leader that has consistently failed in the clutch.

It pains me to say, but could the Mavs success prelude a deep Chargers playoff run?

Every year the Chargers are tagged by the experts as a Super Bowl contender. And every year they fail miserably. In fact, it is so predictable I wrote an entire post last summer mocking ultimate-insider Peter King’s early pick of a San Diego Super Bowl appearance (which, to his credit, had changed to a Packer/Steeler Super Bowl pick by the season’s start).

But what if, 2011 is one of those years where form doesn’t hold?

Despite their repeated playoff failures with Phillip Rivers under center and Norv Turner under the headset, the Chargers aren’t far off from contending in an increasingly wide-open AFC as the traditional powers continue to age. The Chargers largely underperformed last year thanks to abysmal special teams, a disappointing running game and a lack of talent at wide receiver.

The defense was solidified in the draft to replace players that have migrated away. The Special Teams coordinator was canned and can only get better. Ryan Matthews enters a 2^nd year with a better understanding of what is needed to play in the pros.

The only missing piece is wide receiver. If they can re-sign Vincent Jackson or trade him for a receiver that wants to be in San Diego, they could return to their perennial spot atop the AFC West, won last year by the Chiefs, presumably through the use of some sort of black magic.

A new wide receiver might play the role something like the Mavs adding Tyson Chandler: he isn’t the key factor to the Mavs success but provides another weapon to use.

The only missing factor would be finally finding a way to win in the playoffs. And, in addition to any residual Mavs magic, the Chargers have one big bonus working in their favor: stability.

Other teams may be trying to integrate free agents right up to the beginning of the season, thanks to the lock-out delaying any and all roster moves. In this year, stability and veteran leadership could take on out-sized advantage. Having the vast majority of the team and coaching staff in place could be enough to help the Chargers finally get over the hump and live up to their talent level.

I am the last person advocating a perennial underachiever finding a way to reach new heights without significant changes.

But if the Mavs can suddenly find a switch to turn on, why couldn’t the Bolts?

There is apparently some cult or religious group that believes this coming Saturday, May 21^st will be the beginning of the end of the world. I typically ignore these whack jobs, but maybe this time they aren’t completely wrong.

If the Mavs can be on the brink of a title – it is, at a minimum, the end of the sports world as we know it.

Back to finish out our guesses at how the First Round of the NFL draft would play out if only teams cared as much about amusing us as they do making money.

#17 – Patriots (from Raiders: I am sad that we don’t get to see what fast, talentless player Al Davis would take this year) – Anthony Costanzo is a tackle from Boston College. He is a hometown boy that can come in to protect the weepy face of the franchise Tom Brady. He can also become the next white, overrated fan favorite (or as I call it: the Birdman) after Danny Woodhead loses his job (foreshadowing!)

#18 – Chargers – The Chargers need to trade up and grab Patrick Peterson. Not only does he replace Antonio Cromartie’s pass coverage that the poor Chargers defense missed last year but also more importantly helps the Chargers abysmal special teams. However, there is no word on whether Peterson can replace Cromartie’s dominance of the Father-Son-Son-Son-Son Picnic.

#19 – Giants – The Giants should grab Da’Quan Bowers if the Clemson defensive lineman can fall to them. I know Bowers has some injury concerns, but it seems like the rest of the Giants defensive linemen are always hurt, so Bowers would immediately bond with his teammates in the ice tub.

#20 –Buccaneers – Bucs tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. infamously said several years ago that he is a soldier. If that were true he would spend more time at the MASH unit than Hawkeye Pierce. However if the Bucs draft Nate Solder, the massive CU lineman, they would have one player who at last sounds like a soldier.

#21 – Chiefs – I still have no idea how the Chiefs won the AFC West. The only thing that I can come up with is thievery. They took the quarterback and GM from the Patriots. They took their coach from the Cardinals. Really they are just trying to mimic successful teams. For that reason, they can take Mike Pouncey, twin brother of Steeler pro-bowler Maurkice. Mike isn’t as good as Maurkice but the Chiefs aren’t a good as the Patriots or Steelers, so he should fit in well.

#22 – Colts – The Colts have been looking for a running back to take the pressure off of Peyton Manning. Ever since Edgerrin James’ career fell apart faster than Hedo Turkoglu in the 2011 playoffs the Colts have drafted Joseph Addai and Donald Brown in the first round and neither has been able to keep the job. Daniel Thomas has one attribute that neither Brown nor Addai has, size. He can take a pounding. Like when Manning stretches him out with a high pass while a linebacker takes aim at his ribs. Unlike most of Peyton’s other receivers he might only miss 1-2 games rather than the rest of the season.

#23 – Eagles – Needing another target for Michael Vick, the Eagles should grab Kyle Rudolph, the tight end out of Notre Dame and top tight end prospect in the draft. Sure, Rudolph can help blocking for Vick and catching passes, but mostly I just want to see what a fan-base that booed Santa could do to a guy named Rudolph if he disappoints.

#24 – Saints – The Saints have the most prolific offense in the NFL. Their defense however isn’t quite Super Bowl caliber. This team gave up 41 points to the Seahawks! Aaron Williams, the corner out of Texas would give them at least one shut down corner. I don’t know if he can tackle Marshawn Lynch but he would at least fly fewer than 5 yards on the stiffarm.  

#25 – Seahawks – Speaking of the Seahawks, despite the offensive explosion against the Saints, the Seahawks need to start thinking about the future of their team. Matt Hasselbeck is 35 years old (and a free agent) and I think we can all agree Charlie Whitehurst could shave his beard and the nickname Clipboard Jesus would still be at least ½ right. Jake Locker is a living legend in the state of Washington. If the Broncos can roll the dice with Tim Tebow, the Seahawks should bring in an athletic freak Locker and he can have a year or two to learn behind Hasselbeck. Just hope Hasselbeck doesn’t teach him about making predictions.

#26 – Ravens – The Ravens have brought in a number of veteran receivers over the last couple of years. Unfortunately, those receivers have about as much chance of beating a corner deep as Donald Trump has of winning the Presidential election. Drafting local boy Torrey Smith of Maryland would finally give the Ravens a receiver whose 40-yard dash time can’t be timed with a sun-dial.

#27 – Falcons – Looking to replicate the success of big/small back tandems the Falcons should draft Kendall Hunter to pair with Michael Turner. As both the Titans and Panther proved in years past the small/big running back combo is key to having a great regular season and failing in the playoffs. That would be totally new for the Falcons.

#28 – Patriots – Breaking hearts across  every Ben Affleck movie set, Belichick drafts running back Mikel Leshoure out of Illinois. Using a first round draft pick on a runningback from an underperforming Big 10 team? What could possibly go wrong for the Patriots?

#29 – Bears – Now that Bears quarterback Jay Cutler has become engaged to Laguna Beach start Kristin Cavallari, the Bears need to invest in a lineman to protect Cutler, who proved last winter he won’t be challenging Brett Favre’s consecutive game played streak. Tyron Smith, played at USC so he is used to playing with players more interested in being successful in Hollywood than in being successful on the football field.

#30 – Jets – The Jets need to continue to strengthen their defense while their young offense matures together. Linebacker Akeem Ayers out of UCLA provides another playmaker for the Jets defense. Rex Ryan really thinks Ayers could be a star. Rex is positive he has the best feet of any linebacker in the draft.

#31 – Steelers – They will have to trade up for him, but I have been saying for months that Nick Fairley’s destiny is to be a Steeler. He can dominate offenses from his defensive line position. His game is centered on playing in the shades of grey of the rule book and he is used to a fan base that is so loathed by others they would actually desecrate their most treasured symbols.  

#32 – Packers – It is easy to say that the Super Bowl champs don’t need more help but don’t forget that Aaron Rodgers was sacked 31 times last year. Adding Mississippi State’s Derek Sherrod would help shore up the Packers offensive line. And we all know that all of Green Bay loves players from Mississippi. I am already looking forward to Sherrod’s first teary-eyed press conference in 2024.

These days, the news coming from the world of football is more depressing than owning Cavaliers season tickets. With nothing but gloom and doom about the chance of seeing a new collective bargaining agreement any time soon, all of the experts are preparing the rest of us for a NFL-less autumn.

Before we get to the nothing- but-bad-news-football world of 2011, let’s take one last look back at the season we just enjoyed. Assuming you aren’t a Panther fan. Or Patriot fan. Or even a Steelers fan.

It is time for my annual rite of self-inflicted public torture that I like to call ‘Looking Ahead by Looking Back’ in which I review (and mock) my own pre-season predictions and provide the earliest predictions for the 2011 season….you know, if we have one.

My preseason AFC predictions:

AFC East

Everyone and their half-blind 7 year old niece is picking the Jets to win this division. However, these are the same people (less a few of the nieces I think) that constantly tell us how a premier quarterback is the key to winning in the NFL. You can say a lot of things about Mark Sanchez: he dates hot women, he has a cool nickname (the Sanchise), he does a good imitation of other people’s strange walks, etc. but one thing you can’t say is that he is a premier quarterback. Last year, he had a QB rating of 63. That is almost in the Jamarcus range (pre-Purple Drank…maybe). Sanchez threw 12 TDs and 20 interceptions. This is the QB of the best team in the AFC and maybe the NFL? Rex can say it all he wants, but it doesn’t make it true. Remember another hot rookie QB, Matt Ryan? His QB ratings each year: ’08 – 88, ’09 – 81 – and that was with expanded talent around him. Teams had a year of tape to learn from and study. I think the combination of the hype and too many off-season moves where winners and leaders (Alan Faneca, Thomas Jones) being replaced with unproven or troublemaking but talented players (Antonio Cromartie, Santonio Holmes) could be too much for the Jets. With the Jets failing that leaves the usual suspects to fill their void. The Patriots will be the same ol’, same ol’ team:  great passing game, questionable run game and defense but a coach and a (actual premier) QB to lead the way. The sleeper will be the Dolphins, who are essentially the Jets with less publicity. Solid young QB, solid running game, upgraded offseason passing game (B-Marsh) and defense (Karlos Dansby). As for the Bills, well they are a short 9 months from being in prime position to draft Jake Locker so….good for them.

AFC East Winner: Patriots (10-6)

Wild Card: Dolphins (9-7)

Actual Winner: Patriots (14-2)

Actual Wild Card: Jets (11-5)

Not the worst start for me. I did successfully pick the Division winner, though I low-balled their win total by as many wins as the Broncos had this entire season (wiping away tear). All of that anti-Jets ranting looks marginally less brilliant. Though I still stand by most of it (except for one thing – sorry Santonio). It would be fascinating to see Mark Sanchez’s passer rating by quarter. I would bet that his 4^th quarter rating is at least 10 points higher than any other quarter. He just finds a way to win. It may be ugly, but he is successful. Any high school girl can see that.

As for the Dolphins….would it make a difference if I thought J-Lo’s ownership of the Dolphins, her stint as judge on America’s Got Talent and her apparent Benjamin Button disease in which she gets hotter and her marriage more inexplicable each year meant that 2010 would be the year of J-Lo and the Dolphins? No? Ok, fine. I whiffed. Chad Henne sucks.

2011 Prediction: Ok, Rex Ryan, I give in. Your out-of-control ego and even more out-of-control eating are too much for me. I haven’t believed in you or your team for two years and both years you have made the AFC title game. I give up, you win. In 2011, the Jets will go 16-0 in the regular season and win every game 47-0.  I shall never doubt Rex again.

2011 Winner: Jets (Wild Card: Patriots)

AFC North

Much like the Jets in the AFC East, the Ravens are getting all the hype in the AFC North. With expanded targets for Joe Flacco (Anquan Boldin and now T.J. Houshmandzadeh), a consistent defense and Ray Rice and Willis McGahee at running back there are few questions about the Ravens outside of ‘do I really want to own any Ravens on my fantasy team’? Well, I own Ray Rice if that answers your question. With Big Ben sitting in figurative jail for the first 4 weeks of the season (lucky for him it is only figurative), the Steelers could start out slow and never quite catch up, especially with a defense I still don’t trust – presence of insured hair or not. The Bengals have 2 separate VH1 reality shows on their roster but might be better off if that meant Flavor Flav and Brett Michaels were slated to start. I just can’t trust the Bengals. Whether it is not believing Cedric Benson can duplicate last year, Carson Palmer can play solidly again or T.O. and Ochocinco can both be fine with reduced targets, something just doesn’t quite click for me on this team. If the team starts out 0 and 2 thanks to a tougher Conference champ schedule that starts at New England and then home for Baltimore, we could quickly spiral into an ugly, ugly situation. Which will just make Ochoncinco feel like he is back on his reality show. There might be another team in this division…hmmm…I just can’t recall who it is right now.

AFC North Winner: Ravens (11-5)

Actual Winner: Steelers (12-4)

Actual Wild Card: Ravens (12-4)

So I underestimated the Steelers ability to withstand Big Ben’s suspension (as well as the Steelers fans ability to put things like morals and values ahead of winning football games). The comment about the defense looks especially foolish…right up to the Super Bowl. Better late than never, I guess. Thanks Aaron. I also overestimated Joe Flacco’s ability to take advantage of his new targets and the Ravens offense as a whole. Thank god, the rest of my fantasy team was stacked so I could still win my league with Rice underperforming. And yes, this was just another pathetic attempt to interject my fantasy team winning its league for the first time. Hey, if we are looking back let’s look at all the highlights of the season. Which is why I don’t need to mention the Browns or Bengals further.  

2011 Prediction: Another too-close-to-call between the Steelers and the Ravens. But, the Packers showed how to beat the Steelers. Unfortunately, the Ravens aren’t equipped to take advantage of those exposed weaknesses. It’s like when Ray Lewis sees a guy outside of a club wearing body armor. He knows what he wants to do to him, but isn’t equipped to do it.

2011 Winner: Steelers

AFC South

It seems like the Colts have owned the AFC South for decades. But that isn’t true. The AFC South wasn’t even created until 2002. See, it hasn’t even been a decade. Do I think their reign ends this year? Umm, no. People like to try and draw attention to themselves on the internet by being the loudest, most obnoxious and most different (hey it worked for Glenn Beck). While I have been known to go a little over-the-top on occasion (all completely warranted for the record), above everything else I am rational. So, maybe I am destined to have 8 readers forever. I would rather have 8 readers and be correct in picking the Colts than sky-rocket up the google rankings by picking the Texans to go to the Super Bowl while also claiming Peyton Manning was the real father of Kourtney Kardashian’s baby. Until the Colts show sort of chink in their regular season armor (let’s not discuss the playoffs just yet), I have to pick them. Speaking of the Texans, I hate to be the oil spill in the gulf of expectations but I am not buying it. A harder schedule thanks to drawing the NFC East and placing 2^nd in the division last year, an inconsistent QB (last year: 8 games with QB rating over 100; 6 games under 90) and an unproven running game all scream to me ‘unfulfilled expectations’.  The Titans however are getting no pre-season press outside of the fantasy magazines putting Chris Johnson #1 overall. Two years ago the Titans went 13-3 and last year the Titans had a 2,000 yard rusher and their only losses after Week #6 were to the Colts and Chargers. With a full off-season knowing he is the MAN, Vince Young could have a surprisingly solid year. Keep CJ healthy, find a go-to wide receiver (I have my fantasy league money on Kenny Britt) and the Titans could be the surprise team of the year. The Jaguars could have drafted Tim Tebow and at least gotten some publicity. They didn’t so I will give them what they want – to be ignored.

AFC South Winner: Colts (11-5)

Wild Card: Titans (10-6)

Actual Winner: Colts (10-6)

I really went .500 in the AFC South. Another division winner called correctly.  And I really went out on a limb with this one. I also called the epic disappointment that everyone who was hyping the Texans in the pre-season felt. But really that was so obvious, I am almost embarrassed to have gotten it so correct. Just like people will say when Justin Bieber shaves his head and moves to a Llama farm in Chile in 2022 with his ‘friend’ Gunther. On the other hand, I ignored the once-every-five-years inexplicable resurrection of the Jags. They should just rename their team the Locusts, since the come from nowhere on a regular basis and wreak havoc before just as suddenly disappearing. Remember this when people are hyping them in August. The Titans really hurt me though. I was all-in on the Titans. And then VY went off the rails again and we were subjected to the Kerry Collins experience.

2011 Predictions: If the Colts can win in 2010 when every receiver who has even seen a Peyton Manning commercial was hurt, how can we expect them to lose next year? Remember the Jags will disappear again, the Titans are a mess and the Texans are the Texans. For the record, change a few of these proper names and the entire preceding paragraph can be applied to the 2012 Presidential election.

2011 Winner: Colts

AFC West

Is this finally the year? For all outward appearances the Chargers got worse in the offseason. They lost Cromartie, Jamal Williams and maybe Vincent Jackson. Unfortunately they kept Norv Turner and Shawne Merriman is another year removed from his PED-fueled prime. The Chargers just scream ‘collapse’. But I think they hold on for another year. Not because of their greatness but mostly because of the widespread mediocrity across the rest of the AFC West. I think the Broncos are better than they are given credit for in Vegas. I don’t think they are any worse than their 8-8 record last year when they played a tougher schedule (replacing NFC East with NFC West is like going from the SEC to the Mountain West). With Orton under center they at least have an offensive leader. They have also tried to re-design the defense to fit in the 3-4 scheme better than the undersized players who got run over at the end of last year. I think they are as good or better with the loss of Marshall who took his talents to South Beach in a trendsetting move among athletic egotists. Orton became too fixated on a guy that isn’t a playmaker. Now Orton will spread it around and hopefully one or two wide receivers will do more than catch an 8-yard pass and give back 3-yards before being tackled. Their problem will be the run game. Both generating their own and stopping the other team. Some are picking the Chiefs as a sleeper this year. More like coma pick. I have no idea what anyone sees in the Chiefs. They have an overwhelmed head coach, two new coordinators that have done nothing but fail since they left the Belichickian womb, an astoundingly mediocre quarterback, two ‘ok’ running backs and an ok defense. If the Chiefs get within one game of being .500 I will go get that Charlie Weis lap band surgery. They are at best slightly below average. If there is a sleeper pick in the AFC West, it might be the (gulp) Raiders. With a competent QB for the first time in nearly a decade, some young skill players with potential and a consistently solid defense, this is one of those teams that could get inspired by an emotional head coach and make a surprising run. I just think they are still a year and a playmaker or two away. So, the Chargers win the division again in what looks like the most Rock-Paper-Scissors even division in the land.

AFC West Winner: Chargers (9-7)

Actual Winner: Chiefs (10-6)

Boy I guess I am lucky that the Chiefs were 4 games over .500 or I would be calling a Doctor for an estimate on that surgery. On first glance this was probably the worst prediction I have ever written. But let me take a Palin-like swipe at making this sound like a good prediction. I did call the fall of the Chargers. I also accurately predicted Kyle Orton’s solid passing year for the Broncos. And I think we can all agree that the Raiders are an up-and-coming team.  So it isn’t all bad. Now about that Chiefs pick. Well, I still don’t know how they won 10 games. I saw them get crushed by the Broncos in Denver. No team that gives up 49 points to the Broncos should win 10 games. In fact, I think the Union should get that put in the new CBA.

2011 Prediction: You may find this hard to believe but I don’t think the Chiefs will repeat. I will give you a minute to catch your breath from that shocker. But then who steps in? Sadly, I will go back to the Chargers. I am really close to picking the Raiders but just can’t do it because…well…it’s the Raiders.

Playoffs:

Wild Card:

Dolphins @ Chargers: Last year a young QB with a solid defense and good running game from the AFC East came into San Diego and surprised the Chargers in the playoffs. With Norv leading the way it is Déjà vu all over again.

Titans @ Patriots: the Patriots are getting old. Can the wily veterans hang with the young speedsters from the Titans? Not any more. 

Divisional Playoffs:

Dolphins @ Colts: Manning picks apart the Dolphins like a Japanese fisherman in The Cove.

Titans @ Ravens: Titans defense just not enough to hold back Ravens potent offense. Wow, that is a sentence I never expected to write. Maybe I should throw in a Flacco unibrow joke just for old times’ sake.

AFC Championship:

Colts @ Ravens: This game is won by the home team – as their past two playoff games have been. Ravens won in 2009 in Baltimore while the Colts won in 2010 in the Oil Can. For this scenario, let’s assume Ravens get the homefield and the win. Why? I don’t know.  Let’s say cold weather and wind keeps Manning from getting the passing game going while Flacco plays well thanks to the added insulation stretching across his forehead (there it is).

AFC Champions: Ravens

Actual AFC Champion: Steelers

Breakdown of my playoff predictions:

Pros: Patriots fall at home to young team. AFC West champ loses at home in Wild Card round. AFC Champion is a tough, defensive team from the AFC North. That joke about the Peyton Manning and the Dolphins.

Cons: Overestimated Colts and Ravens offenses. The phrase “Titans versus Ravens AFC Divisional playoff game”.  The phrase “Ravens’ potent offense”. Basically anything and everything associated with Baltimore and the Ravens up to but not including Edgar Allen Poe.

2011 Prediction: There is always turn-over in the NFL, especially as the best teams start to get older. Some team could come out of nowhere and go deep into the playoffs while teams like the Colts and Patriots start to show their age (I can’t believe I am saying this, but the Raiders are a prime candidate for this). Or nothing changes and the AFC playoffs look exactly like they did this year. It could really go either way. There is only one guarantee about next season.

2011 Winner: Every Fan.

If there is a 2011 season, I don’t care who wins as long as they play the game. 

The football world is upside down. You could argue that this is because I am on the wrong side of the globe from the rest of the football world sort of like those old cartoons when Bugs Bunny tunnels through the world and comes out of the ground upside down in China but I don’t think it is. I just don’t know what happened to the football world while I sat on planes for 20 hours the other day. Look at the developments:

- The Buccaneers and Chiefs are both 2 and 0.

- Jay Cutler is playing well and acting more like a leader than at any other time in his life outside of when he picked the bar to hit with his boys on Friday night.

- Mark Sanchez just out-played Tom Brady and then went home that night with a hotter woman (2^nd part is conjecture)

- Kyle Orton has shut up Broncos fans from pining for Tim Tebow to start. This ranks just behind that Koran burning guy getting charged $200k by the Gainesville police in the list of most disappointing developments for Alachua county evangelicals this week.

- Brett Favre is not playing well. Oh wait, nevermind a nearly 41-year old with a bad ankle and an unmatched history of turning the ball not playing great is the most obvious development this side of Wade Phillips and Tony Romo failing in a crucial moment.

- Boise State and TCU are either overrated or on the shortlist of real national title contenders.

- The Pac-10 looks surprisingly strong and one of their apparently weaker teams is USC. I think we have finally found Lane Kiffin’s greatest strength: making traditional powerhouse programs bad.

The world as we knew and understood is no more. I am at a loss. And not just because I just woke up to go to work and my computer says it is 7:26pm.

College

Alabama @ Arkansas

SD: The biggest battle in college football is between these two neighboring states that are mirrors of each other. Their unlikable coaches were embarrassing NFL failures that came crawling back to the college game yet retain an aura of invincibility and egos only slightly smaller than their new home states. The team colors are the same and they have very similar cursive A emblems on their ball caps so you can never tell which bandwagon high school baseball players have jumped on. Basically there is no difference between these teams other than one likes to run and one likes to pass. I will go with Bama only because when you have questionably intelligent fan-bases I think it is smarter to go with a state that can be shortened to a simple 4-letter name as opposed to a state name with a silent ‘s’ on the end of it. That is just begging for a confused fan to butcher your team name after 14 Busch Lights. Know your people Hogs.

South Carolina @ Auburn

SD: Another battle of ranked SEC teams. Since I picked Auburn last week I will go with the Ole Ball Coach and Gamecocks this week. Call this the Kenny McKinley Memorial pick. Kenny’s suicide this week casts a pall over both USC and the Broncos. The Broncos will struggle with the football factory known as the Colts so let’s hope the Cocks come through.

NFL

San Diego @ Seattle

SD: There are many reasons for me to cheer for the Seahawks over the Chargers. Broncos rival vs. my second hometown. Phillip Rivers versus Matt Hasselbeck. The ghost of Vince Jackson versus the ghost of T.J. Houshmandzadeh. But to me the difference is the coaches. Not only does Pete Carroll show more emotion on his way to the bathroom than Norv Turner in a playoff game but Pete is willing to do anything to win – just look at his time at USC. Maybe if Norv was willing to go the extra mile and look the other way when his players cheat he would do better in the playoffs. Oh wait, he did look the other way back when his entire defense was using more steroids than the Bash Brothers in 1992. Coincidentally when the Chargers were good. Norv, get on the phone with BALCO stat!

Detroit @ Minnesota

 SD: I can’t believe I am about to say this: I love the Lions. Not only is my entire fantasy team riding on Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best (yes, I did well last week) but I love the resurrection of the Lions for one simple reason: Thanksgiving. For the first time in years, we may have an entertaining game on Thanksgiving – just in time because the Cowboys now look like they could be take the Lions place as the annual Thanksgiving memorial sacrificial lamb. Add in Favre fatigue and this one is more lopsided than a game between Boise State and USC would be.

Upside down, indeed.