You know, Bill, there’s one thing I learned in all my years. Sometimes you just gotta say, “What the f**k…”

- Joel Goodson, Risky Business

Sunday I completed a personally remarkable WildCard weekend.

My first half and full game spread picks completed the weekend a remarkable 7 of 8 – so impressive that my days of just giving you this type of knowledge for free is about its end. I mean Harvard ain’t free – am I right?

Of course when I become a Tout I will have to start using ALL CAPS a lot more often and will have to smother the lawyer living in my gut that says to not use words like GUARANTEE.  However, with the amount of dip I have eaten in the last couple of weeks, even if I don’t smother him he will be dead of heart disease before the Super Bowl.

Naturally my one loss came at the hands at my boys in blue, when they dared to take a lead into halftime against the Steelers. The Broncos dominated – then gave away – then shocked the world in beating a vastly overrated Steeler team on Sunday afternoon. Was it really an upset? The Steelers were decimated by injuries – no Mendenhall or Pouncey, Big Ben down to only one good rapin’ leg –  and a defense that is starting to look more like all reputation, no substance. Without Ryan Clark and his defensive Team MVP cell structure, the Steelers pass defense was almost Vikings-esque and that isn’t good.  

SIDEBAR: Personal note to Troy Polamalu: I mean, seriously? You make Pro Bowls, you get shampoo commercials, and the never-ending affection of football writers and then you become the personal punching bag of Tim Tebow and Demaryius Thomas? That’s an embarrassment. The only safety play I have ever seen more pathetic than your play on Sunday was when Dan Orlovsky ran out the back of the end zone. You should cut off all of your hair as penance. Or retire. Whatever.

But I’m not here to talk about the past. Let’s move on. To the Divisional Playoffs. I am riding an incredible picking streak. The Broncos are playing a full 2 weeks after anyone expected them to. At this point, we are all playing with house money, so in the immortal words of Joel Goodson I just say:

What the f**k.

Saturday

New Orleans @ San Francisco

First Half: New Orleans (-3)

Full Game: New Orleans (-3.5)

One team is the NFL’s own Air Show – an on-going series of aerial acrobatics by a group of interchangeable parts.

The other team is the earth-moving machine that the guys in Ocean’s Thirteen used to dig underneath the casino – slow, methodical, barely making noise yet constantly moving forward and seemingly unstoppable as it slowly crushes all in front of it.

Can the Saints’ aerial bombardment “shock and awe” the Niners into submission? Will the Niners stout, quick defense disrupt the Saints show and turn into one of those European Air Show disasters?

Playing the Niners presents 2 major challenges to the Saints – first the Niners defenders aren’t like the Lions. They are built for speed. Aldon Smith. Navarro Bowman. Patrick Willis. They all have speed.

Secondly, as the old saying that I just made up goes: you can take the team out of the dome, but you can’t take the dome out of the team. Even with the forecasted pleasant bay area weather, the Saints will face strange winds, thick, plush grass and cool, heavy air. None of those are things they see in the SuperDome – except maybe the heavy air caused by 75,000 fans stuffed with gumbo and boudin.

Between the Saints being a step slow and the speed of the Niners defense, I think the machine will be slightly off – like when your computer is running yet another Microsoft update in the background and every. Thing. It. Does. Goes. Very. Slowly.

On the other side of the ball, the Niners can minimize the risk associated with the phrase ‘starting playoff quarterback Alex Smith’ by pounding the ball. The Saints aren’t built on defense for a pounding ground game. As Alabama proved last weekend in their National Semifinal defeat of Oklahoma State, a dominant defense grounding a high flying offense and a meticulous power offense that limits mistakes can win.

What’s that?…College doesn’t have a playoff?… So we have no idea if Alabama could shut down OSU’s offense?…I don’t understand…The country’s 2^nd most popular sport can’t identify a definitive champion? …HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE?

Anyway – back to a sport that crowns a true champion. The Saints may move the ball in the first half and score a touchdown or two before the Niners adjust and throw a wrench in the machine so take the Saints and give the points in the first half.

In the second half, like a horror movie murderer that never runs but always catches the running teen girl in the tight fitting tank top, the Niners slowly ground down the Saints defense and clog their offense. The Niners not only cover the full game spread but win out-right.

Denver @ New England

First Half: New England (-7)

Full Game: New England (-13.5)

The Broncos are on a crusade.

Oh, yes – there is the “Drive to the Super Bowl” and whatnot but that isn’t what this team is about. The whole ‘glories on Earth’ thing is beneath them. They aren’t after trophies.

They are after souls.

At the end of the 1997-1998 season, the Broncos entered the playoffs as a wildcard and embarked on the ‘Revenge’ Tour as each week featured a team that they felt they owed. The Jaguars (wildcard) had beaten them in the previous year’s playoffs. The Chiefs (divisional) and Steelers (AFC championship) had beaten the Broncos during the regular season and the Packers (Super Bowl) were defending champs.

The 1997 Broncos were a Quentin Tarantino character without even realizing it.

This year’s Bronco team isn’t out to revenge past defeats. Rather they have taken on their leader’s persona and are out to vanquish evil doers. The Broncos aren’t beating football teams, they’re cleansing a game’s morals. One Commandment at a time.

Last week, was the defeat of a rapist.

Allegedly.

Next comes a cheat and philanderer.

Allegedly.

And then, were the Broncos to defeat the Patriots and face the Ravens (favored over the Texans), they would face thieves (that stole a team from the people of Cleveland) and a murderer (<cough>Ray Lewis<cough>).

Allegedly.

In three short weeks, the Broncos can cleanse these playoffs of the sinners.

They can exorcise the demons. This house will be clear.

But can good truly triumph over evil again? The odds are long. But they were also long against a Jewish carpenter once, and raise your hand if you just got home from worshipping Jupiter and Juno.

The Broncos have 2 things going for them (beyond the existential power of the Heavens). First Tebow requires poor secondary play to throw the ball well – he needs receivers with some space thanks to less than Brady-esque confidence and accuracy (see: Steelers and Vikings games). Thankfully, the Patriots have a pass defense as bad as anyone in the NFL.

Secondly, while the Patriots did dominate the Broncos a few weeks ago, they dominated because of Broncos mistakes. Three awful turnovers before half turned a lead into a deficit – and these Broncos are as likely to stage a large comeback as they are to make it rain at The Gold Club.

History has also shown that while the Patriots may be consistently strong, their Achilles heel has been playoff re-matches at home (last year vs. Jets and 2 years ago vs. Ravens).

I am tempted to say take the Patriots in the first half, but I think at best, they get a push with the 7 point spread.

It is just too many points. Take the Broncos for the first half and full game and feel the warmth and strength that comes with being on the side of the just.

Last year, in the inaugural ‘Doubling Down’ series, I had a shockingly successful run in picking both halftime and full time playoff games against the spread.  A smarter man than I would go out on top. Call it a fun experiment and move on with my life to things I am more qualified to write about. Whatever that may be. 

But not me. A few weeks ago I sat a blackjack table in Mandalay Bay until about 1 in the morning. I had been drinking for about 14 hours. I could barely see, let alone think. Yet, the gambling gods had shown favor on me and I was doing pretty well. Until I wasn’t. And when a smarter man would go to bed to save his money to bet on NFL the next morning, I stayed.

And lost it all.

So that is what this is. It is my drunk 1 am visit to a blackjack table. Here if I have a bad week I lose my reputation as an NFL Sharp rather than a pocket full of cash. But, thankfully my reputation is smaller than my bankroll.

So, with nothing at stake beside my good name, let’s dive in and pick each Wild Card game. Let’s start with the Saturday games.

Houston vs. Cincinnati****

Halftime: Houston (-2)

Full Game: Houston (-3)

Am I really picking T.J. Yates to win a playoff game and cover a spread? Yes. Yes I am. The easy argument would be to say I don’t trust Andy Dalton, a rookie QB, on the road against a stout Texans defense; that a healthy Andre Johnson and Arian Foster can take the pressure off TJ. But there is another more important factor in picking the Texans: revenge.

Did you see the seats that the Bengals gave TJ’s parents at Yates’ first start in Cincinnati? That was disrespect if I have ever seen it. TJ is coming out for blood this week. There is no greater motivation then defending the honor of your mother. And make no mistake – by putting Mr. and Mrs. Yates in seats marginally closer to Dayton than to the field, the Bengals essentially pulled out a glove and slapped TJ across the face. IT IS ON. And TJ is bringing Brian Cushing and his ‘supplements’ with him.

In the name of Mrs. Yates, I think the Texans come out strong and roll, give the points at half and across the full game and you too can spend these 3 hours laughing, smiling and reminiscing about the early 1990’s Broncos teams right along with Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips as the Texans roll.

****HUGE ASTERISK: If Yates is truly hurt and Jake Delhomme plays a prominent role in this game, then ignore all of the above and make a run for the hills like an asteroid is going to hit the ocean over the weekend.

New Orleans vs. Detroit

Halftime: New Orleans (-6.5)

Full Game: New Orleans (-11)

Drew Brees pretty much single-handedly won me my fantasy league this year. It is the 2^nd year in a row I have won this league, which means 1 of 2 things:

1 – as the league is full of lawyers, law school really isn’t as difficult as non-lawyers think it is

or

2 – I am about 9 months away from taking a job away from Mathew Berry and forcing him to try and make a living by writing Crocodile Dundee 4: Is Paul Hogan Is Still Alive?

Basically regardless of the outcome here, Brees has already had a pretty successful 2011 season. At least for me.

As for this game, which is significantly less meaningful than my championship game a couple weeks ago (but whatever), I can’t turn my back on what Bress has done for me. I am loyal like that.

Over the course of 60 minutes, I expect the Lions to make too many mistakes and the unstoppable Mardi Gras float that is the Saints offense to run the Lions over like a little kid who got too greedy chasing down beads dropped in the street.

With the freakiest receiver this side of Justin Blackmon, a solid QB (when healthy) in Matthew Stafford and a solid defensive line (when not suspended) I expect the Lions can keep it close for awhile.

Until the clock strikes midnight and Stafford gets up from a tackle holding his arm and grimacing. Or a Boy Named Suh goes all Ron Artest and tries to climb into the stands and rip the umbrella from Tom Benson’s cold, dead hands (after he rips his throat out – Roadhouse style – obviously).

In short, the Lions, much like their coach, are about as disciplined and mature as the cast of Real World at 3 am. There will be an implosion and it will be ugly.

Take the Lions in the first half – hope for a 14-10, 17-14 or 21-17 Saints lead and then hide the women and children, take the Saints full game with the points, pop a cold beer and wait for the implosion.

Much like my vocal cords, THH is recovering a little slowly from last week’s epic game in Tallahassee. While THH was in complete hibernation until it was too late to pick the college games, my voice crept slowly back to life as the week progressed. On Sunday, my voice ranged a soft whisper to, at best, the voice of a guy talking through a hole in his throat. By Tuesday I was starting to sound like Kathleen Turner. By Thursday I had made it all the way back to Wendi Nix.

Really, the only benefit to my scratchy throat was my dead-on sing along to a Johnny Cash song on my I-pod.

Anyway, I have finally recovered from last week’s painful FSU loss. Sadly, the Noles did not. Somehow a team that gave up 23 points to the best team in the land allowed Clemson to put up 35 today. But more on that later.

Let’s set aside the very painful world of college football and focus on the pros.

In honor of one of my all-time favorite Americans, this week is Neighbors week. All the games feature teams playing a team from a neighboring state.

It’s just too bad I didn’t get to this before the college game because I was really excited to label the Nebraska/Wyoming game ‘The Cabelas Bowl’ – a battle between the state that is the home to Cabela’s and a state that is home to 69% of their consumers.

But instead, we will focus on the big boys. And in honor of these neighborly battles, the games will be decided with one simple question:

What would Mr. Rogers do?

NFL

Houston @ New Orleans

I know Mr. Rogers is remembered as the epitome of wholesome family entertainment but if there is one thing that our religious and Republican leaders have taught me, it’s that the more wholesome and devout someone appears, the more crazy sh*t they like to do when the lights are off. While this might make you think Mr. Rogers would cheer for Houston and their soon-to-be outed Governor Rick Perry (who doth protests way too much), I think we all know that when it comes to debauchery, New Orleans is in a neighborhood all its own. Geaux Saints.

Detroit @ Minnesota

One of the best parts of Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood was when he went to visit the neighborhood of Make-Believe. Unlike fans of rap battles, it would be understandable that anyone that values neighborhoods and neighbors would not like Detroit, but, the neighborhood of Make-Believe is key to understanding why both Mr. Rogers and I would cheer for the Lions. Only someone that spends part of their week in the Land of Make-Believe could ever think that Matthew Stafford could stay healthy for an entire season.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

While Mr. Rogers’ entire show was about his neighborhood that was all make-believe. Even the stuff outside the neighborhood of Make-Believe. Mr. McFeely was not a delivery man. He was an actor named David Newell, playing a character named after Fred Rogers’ grandfather. Mr. Rogers’ real neighborhood was the other shows that aired around his show on PBS. So in that way, the inhabitants of Sesame Street were more Mr. Rogers’ neighbors than anyone in Make-Believe land. And anyone that has spent any time on Sesame Street knows we should be nice to our fellow humans. LeGarrette Blount clearly never watched Sesame Street, so Fred and I are both rooting for the Falcons.

I arrived in Texas this morning.

Sadly, I was hoping I would land in the middle of a Anchorman-style back-alley brawl with A&M, Texas and Baylor alumni groups fighting to the death but instead it is just hot and dry and flat like usual. Too bad.

Though for the record, if any local alumni group is throwing a trident in a back-alley brawl it is absolutely the alumni group from Rice.

Being in Dallas also puts me in the mind of the Cowboys and the NFC. With Jerry’s spaceship visible for 50 miles in every direction it is hard to not think about the Cowboys when you are here. Even if your one trip to Jerryworld was less than ideal (though that trip still generates more hits than every other post on this site combined, so I really can’t say too much negative about Mr. Jones).

With Jerry in mind then, let’s pick this year’s NFC Champion as well as our eventual Super Bowl Champ.

NFC East

Obviously the trendy pick here is the Eagles. In fact, it is so obvious that it is clear to me that it will never happen (call that Vizzini logic). Have you noticed that all of the key players on the Eagles are physically small? Vick, McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Nnamdi Asomugha. All are slight for professional football players. On the positive side, this means they won’t be cursed with man-boobs later in life, but on the negative it means that they are more susceptible to injury today. It is hard for me to see all of them making it throught he season unscathed, most likely because neither DeSean nor Vick ever has. I think that will allow the Cowboys, flying under the radar for the first time in 2 decades, to sneak in and take the division. If Romo can stay healthy and the defense plays to its potential it won’t take much for the Cowboys to be the most overrated football team in America by early October (especially with Notre Dame already proving that they are a joke). The Giants look like the very definition of mediocrity to me and the Redskins actually had a quarterback competition between Rex Grossmann and John Beck. Even worse it was for starter!

Winner: Cowboys 11-5

Wild Card: Eagles 10-6

NFC North

The home of our Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers but also home to 2010 division winners Chicago Bears and trendy sleeper pick Detroit Lions (as well as a Vikings team that went from overrated to afterthought in less than a year thanks to one forty plus year old former drug addict. Explain that one to your kids). Two things to remember about the 2010 Packers. First, they needed the Lions beating the Bucs in Tampa to even make the playoffs on a tiebreaker. Second, they had something like 17 regular players out with injuries at various times throughout the season yet still won 3 straight road playoff games and the Super Bowl. Basically, what I am saying is that I don’t see any way they don’t cruise to an easy NFC North title this year. I think the Bears fail to achieve last year’s heights due to (1) tougher division champ schedule (2) defense that is a year older and (3) an even mopier Jay Cutler who dumped the only person in America that doesn’t despise him. The Lions still feel too young to me. Or maybe they are too Matt Stafford-y for me; relying on a guy who doesn’t make it through a 16-game regular season on Madden without an injury. The Vikings brought in Donovan McNabb 3 years too late and therefore will get a lot of garbage time in December for young Christian Ponder, whose accuracy I have a new found respect for after watching EJ Manuel last weekend.

Winner: Packers 12-4

NFC South

Last year’s NFC South champion Falcons have all the earmarks of a perennial division champion. Unfortunately that division champion is named the Norv Turner-era San Diego Chargers. Like the Chargers, the Falcons have a young quarterback with a bland name and relatively bland game. Both undeniably talented but never destined to date a super model. Solid but not spectacular defenses. And regular season success followed up by post-season failure. The Falcons feel like a team that will make the playoffs every other year; the years they get a soft schedule for placing poorly in their divisions the year before. The Saints, on the other hand, made every right move. They jettisoned Kardashian-loving, Heisman-returning Reggie Bush, who could never quite fit and replaced him with Heisman holding Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles who is best known as L.T.’s former back-up in San Diego and the inspiration for my favorite gambling phrase. More importantly, after giving up a spectacular run to Marshawn Lynch in the playoffs they also shored up their defensive line. Their only competition looks to come from Tampa Bay, where a young group of cast-offs may be in the process of forming a new super team. Thankfully, for my sanity and Fox’s ratings, I think we are at least one more year away from a Lions/Bucs NFC Championship.

Winner: Saints 12-4

Wildcard: Buccaneers 10-6

NFC West

It is interesting that every time I write about an entire NFL conference I end with the West. In this case, last is MOST CERTAINLY least. After giving us our first ever Division winner with a losing record last year, it seems that the NFC West somehow got worse in the offseason. This would be like finding out a Bachelor contestant got more desperate after their time on the show. Or that the cast of Jersey Shore are more embarrassing when the cameras aren’t rolling. It might be the most underreported story of the year. The Seahawks lost Matt Hasselbeck and now look to either Tavares Jackson or the original Clipboard Jesus, Charlie Whitehurst, as their every down quarterback. But at least they have no talent around him to take off the pressure. The 49ers are the same every year: plenty of talent but lacking enough talent in important areas <cough> Alex Smith <cough> to ever really compete. The Cardinals have pinned all of their hopes to a former back-up that played about one game last year. The Cardinals think they got the next Philip Rivers. I think they got the next Trent Green. The Rams, on the other hand look like a young team headed in the right direction. They still have no receivers for Sam Bradford to throw to (Danny Amendola…seriously???) but after being one game short of the playoffs last year I think they can make it this year.

Winner: Rams 10-6

Wildcard

Eagles at Rams – looks like we are still a year away from the Lions, Bucs and Rams becoming this generation’s version of the 1990’s 49ers, Cowboys and Packers. God help us all. Eagles win.

Buccaneers at Cowboys – Say what you want about Tony Romo in high pressure situations but he knows how to win at home against overmatched teams. Cowboys win.

Divisional Playoffs

Cowboys at Packers – Say what you want about Tony Romo in high pressure situations but on the road in hostile conditions against good teams he turns into a quivering blob of jelly. Packers win.

Eagles at Saints – Remember that one time that Drew Brees and Sean Payton hosted an important game in the Super Dome and lost? Yeah me neither. Saints win and Spike Lee is inspired to create a 10 hour documentary about the horrors of dog fighting.

NFC Championship

Packers at Saints – A battle of our last two Super Bowl winners in probably the most painful Hierarchy of Hate decision I will have to make until the Seminoles go pro and are put in the Broncos division. I like everything about both of these teams: the players, the cities, the uniforms. Even that they were once quarterbacked by Lynn Dickey and Bobby Hebert. This game is just too close to call. I will take the Vegas way out and give the 3-point win to the home team.

(Note: please don’t ask why I think the Saints are the home team with both teams having equal regular season records. If Roger Goodell doesn’t have to explain any of his arbitrary decisions, neither do I).

NFC Champion: New Orleans Saints

Super Bowl

Saints vs. Steelers

The dirty secret about the Steelers is that they are starting to get older. James Harrison only has so many more cheap shots left in him. Troy Polamalu is already chasing that sweet shampoo money because he knows time stops for no man, even those with hair down to their waist. Hines Ward was in such bad shape that his off-season workout was limited to ballroom dancing! After a season beating up on the slower AFC North and taking a pounding in the process, the Steelers are in no shape to chase the speedy Saints all over the field for 60 minutes.

The first Hand Grenade from Tropical Isle is on me. Saints win another Super Bowl.

Back to finish out our guesses at how the First Round of the NFL draft would play out if only teams cared as much about amusing us as they do making money.

#17 – Patriots (from Raiders: I am sad that we don’t get to see what fast, talentless player Al Davis would take this year) – Anthony Costanzo is a tackle from Boston College. He is a hometown boy that can come in to protect the weepy face of the franchise Tom Brady. He can also become the next white, overrated fan favorite (or as I call it: the Birdman) after Danny Woodhead loses his job (foreshadowing!)

#18 – Chargers – The Chargers need to trade up and grab Patrick Peterson. Not only does he replace Antonio Cromartie’s pass coverage that the poor Chargers defense missed last year but also more importantly helps the Chargers abysmal special teams. However, there is no word on whether Peterson can replace Cromartie’s dominance of the Father-Son-Son-Son-Son Picnic.

#19 – Giants – The Giants should grab Da’Quan Bowers if the Clemson defensive lineman can fall to them. I know Bowers has some injury concerns, but it seems like the rest of the Giants defensive linemen are always hurt, so Bowers would immediately bond with his teammates in the ice tub.

#20 –Buccaneers – Bucs tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. infamously said several years ago that he is a soldier. If that were true he would spend more time at the MASH unit than Hawkeye Pierce. However if the Bucs draft Nate Solder, the massive CU lineman, they would have one player who at last sounds like a soldier.

#21 – Chiefs – I still have no idea how the Chiefs won the AFC West. The only thing that I can come up with is thievery. They took the quarterback and GM from the Patriots. They took their coach from the Cardinals. Really they are just trying to mimic successful teams. For that reason, they can take Mike Pouncey, twin brother of Steeler pro-bowler Maurkice. Mike isn’t as good as Maurkice but the Chiefs aren’t a good as the Patriots or Steelers, so he should fit in well.

#22 – Colts – The Colts have been looking for a running back to take the pressure off of Peyton Manning. Ever since Edgerrin James’ career fell apart faster than Hedo Turkoglu in the 2011 playoffs the Colts have drafted Joseph Addai and Donald Brown in the first round and neither has been able to keep the job. Daniel Thomas has one attribute that neither Brown nor Addai has, size. He can take a pounding. Like when Manning stretches him out with a high pass while a linebacker takes aim at his ribs. Unlike most of Peyton’s other receivers he might only miss 1-2 games rather than the rest of the season.

#23 – Eagles – Needing another target for Michael Vick, the Eagles should grab Kyle Rudolph, the tight end out of Notre Dame and top tight end prospect in the draft. Sure, Rudolph can help blocking for Vick and catching passes, but mostly I just want to see what a fan-base that booed Santa could do to a guy named Rudolph if he disappoints.

#24 – Saints – The Saints have the most prolific offense in the NFL. Their defense however isn’t quite Super Bowl caliber. This team gave up 41 points to the Seahawks! Aaron Williams, the corner out of Texas would give them at least one shut down corner. I don’t know if he can tackle Marshawn Lynch but he would at least fly fewer than 5 yards on the stiffarm.  

#25 – Seahawks – Speaking of the Seahawks, despite the offensive explosion against the Saints, the Seahawks need to start thinking about the future of their team. Matt Hasselbeck is 35 years old (and a free agent) and I think we can all agree Charlie Whitehurst could shave his beard and the nickname Clipboard Jesus would still be at least ½ right. Jake Locker is a living legend in the state of Washington. If the Broncos can roll the dice with Tim Tebow, the Seahawks should bring in an athletic freak Locker and he can have a year or two to learn behind Hasselbeck. Just hope Hasselbeck doesn’t teach him about making predictions.

#26 – Ravens – The Ravens have brought in a number of veteran receivers over the last couple of years. Unfortunately, those receivers have about as much chance of beating a corner deep as Donald Trump has of winning the Presidential election. Drafting local boy Torrey Smith of Maryland would finally give the Ravens a receiver whose 40-yard dash time can’t be timed with a sun-dial.

#27 – Falcons – Looking to replicate the success of big/small back tandems the Falcons should draft Kendall Hunter to pair with Michael Turner. As both the Titans and Panther proved in years past the small/big running back combo is key to having a great regular season and failing in the playoffs. That would be totally new for the Falcons.

#28 – Patriots – Breaking hearts across  every Ben Affleck movie set, Belichick drafts running back Mikel Leshoure out of Illinois. Using a first round draft pick on a runningback from an underperforming Big 10 team? What could possibly go wrong for the Patriots?

#29 – Bears – Now that Bears quarterback Jay Cutler has become engaged to Laguna Beach start Kristin Cavallari, the Bears need to invest in a lineman to protect Cutler, who proved last winter he won’t be challenging Brett Favre’s consecutive game played streak. Tyron Smith, played at USC so he is used to playing with players more interested in being successful in Hollywood than in being successful on the football field.

#30 – Jets – The Jets need to continue to strengthen their defense while their young offense matures together. Linebacker Akeem Ayers out of UCLA provides another playmaker for the Jets defense. Rex Ryan really thinks Ayers could be a star. Rex is positive he has the best feet of any linebacker in the draft.

#31 – Steelers – They will have to trade up for him, but I have been saying for months that Nick Fairley’s destiny is to be a Steeler. He can dominate offenses from his defensive line position. His game is centered on playing in the shades of grey of the rule book and he is used to a fan base that is so loathed by others they would actually desecrate their most treasured symbols.  

#32 – Packers – It is easy to say that the Super Bowl champs don’t need more help but don’t forget that Aaron Rodgers was sacked 31 times last year. Adding Mississippi State’s Derek Sherrod would help shore up the Packers offensive line. And we all know that all of Green Bay loves players from Mississippi. I am already looking forward to Sherrod’s first teary-eyed press conference in 2024.

The NFC is home to the most interesting match-up and least interesting match-up of the weekend. At least when it comes to the game. When it comes to gambling, both games are exceedingly interesting.

Ahh, the wonders of the point spread.

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

(1^st Half line: New Orleans -6.5, Full game: New Orleans -10)

I am afraid that I may be unable to bring my usual impartial analysis to this game. I have spent the week in Seattle and as I sat in traffic crossing Mercer Island I have had 3 days of local radio hosts finding ways in which the Seahawks can win this game. You can blame the Rams. The Seahawks so thoroughly dominated the Rams on Sunday night, a ray of sunshine has parted the gloomy Seattle winter. Suddenly, hope beckons like a barista with your non-fat latte. Beating the Saints isn’t a distant mirage, instead it is ever more tangible thing, like the ferry returning through the fog from Bainbridge Island.

Ok, enough with the Seattle specific analogies! We get it. Move on.

This game should be a blowout. The Seahawks lost to the Broncos (pre-messiah)! They got run off the field by the Saints earlier this year and in the last few weeks have gotten killed by the Forty-Niners and the Bucs. Their choice at quarterback is between an old, injured Matt Hasselbeck and unproven Charlie Whitehurst. The reigning Super Bowl MVP is bringing in the defending champs. And Brees was also Sportsman of the Year, so you can’t even say he brings some kind of “d-bag” karma like other teams (Paging Mr. Sanchez). This game should be over by halftime. In fact, it seems like a lot of fans around the country kind of hope the Seahawks just retire at halftime and save us all the time.

However.

With the loudest fans in the league; cool, wet weather and a Saints team traveling all the way across the country without 2 running backs (Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas on IR), and a hobbled leading receiver, there is just enough to make one pause and wonder if maybe the Seahawks really can win this game. Their quarterback will either be a playoff-proven winner or a guy with the nickname ‘Clipboard Jesus’ – which is awesome – who just won a (pseudo) playoff game a week ago.

So, here is how it plays out in my mind:

The Saints come out and try to quiet the crazy Qwest field crowd by opening up the offense. Unable to keep up with the Saints receivers, the Seahawks give up a couple big plays and find themselves facing a big deficit until the defense tightens and Leon Washington (NOLE ALERT!) makes a big special teams play near the half.

14-7 Saints at the half (take the Saints and lay the points).

In the second half the Saints strike again but with no running game, they can’t keep the Seahawks off the field. The Seahawks, with Hasselbeck hurt and on the bench, are led for a late touchdown by Clipboard Jesus himself (did I mention how awesome that name is? Tebow has to be pissed he didn’t get that nickname before becoming starter) to close the lead but not enough for the win.

Final score: 28-20 Saints. (Take the Seahawks and the 10).

(In fact I think it has moved to 10.5 or 11 by now so this is as much a no-brainer as picking Halibut over Salmon. Or King Felix over Sabathia for the Cy Young. Ok, I’m really done now).

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles

(1^st Half: Philly -1, Full game: Philly -2.5)

Despite any discussion of Clay Matthews hair, Andy Reid’s stomach, Aaron Rodgers girlfriend or DeSean Jackson’s antics, this game comes down to one simple thing:

Do the football gods really allow Michael Vick to succeed in the playoffs?

He has single-handedly changed the Eagles into a power this year through his incredible talents, yet has taken an immense beating in the process. He is on my side of his 30^th birthday. Can he put the City of Brotherly Love on his back and win this game, or will his body fail him and ultimately put the city’s unconditional support in a rape stand?

(“In a rape stand”? “On a rape stand”? Vick would know these things but I don’t)

Can the unseen forces that require I not wear FSU gear during Seminole games or they lose also allow Vick to finally end Philly’s long football championship drought? Would it be ironically appropriate that a convicted dog fighter be the one to finally win a title for a fan base best known for throwing snow balls at Santa and batteries at opposing players or would it just be a sad statement on the priorities of our country?

I’m not sure, and based on these lines, Vegas isn’t sure either.

At every other position, the Packers have an advantage. But can anyone be sure that Vick won’t just come out and win this game by himself?

Of course we can’t but I don’t think he will.

This game reminds me a little of the FSU/VT national title game from 11 years ago. A solid offensive team and athletic defense on one side. A decent defense and Michael Vick on the other. Sure, Philly has more weapons on offense than that Tech team did but this Packer team has a stronger defense, so call it a wash.

I expect both teams to start strong, with offenses holding the advantage early. A couple early scores on both sides should keep it close while the defensive coordinators scramble to find an answer at halftime.

With the 1^st half spread too close to call, take the points : Packers +1 and hope for a 14-14 tie.

In the second half, the athletic Packers defense should both reign in Vick and also slowly wear him down. On the other side of the ball, I expect the Packer offense can keep the ball moving with Rodgers relying on a variety of receivers to find holes in the Eagles defense.

A Charles Woodson interception of Vick should end the game and the Packers not only cover but win the game outright.

Final score: Packers 28, Eagles 24.

The football gods are good. The football gods are just.