It is a weird quirk of nature that 5 victories can pale in the face of a single defeat.

It is called loss aversion. The concept that we fear a loss greater than we relish a victory. We mourn $100 lost much more than we celebrate $100 won. Based purely on economics it is an irrational, human emotion with little explanation. $100 is $100 is $100. PacMan Jones can make them all rain the same.

Yet, I can’t sit here and pretend to be above this feeling, for today I am wallowing in it. I had a lucrative day yesterday, thanks to a couple excellent forecasts and astute in-game bets. I ended the day with more money than I started the day.

But it was one loss that continues to stab me in the ribs this morning.

I should be thrilled with being so right about my projections last week. For the most part, both of yesterday’s games followed the script I wrote of what I expected. Even better for the most part, I profited from those expectations, which has not always been the case this season.

More remarkably, on multiple occasions I “hedged” pre-game bets with in-game bets in hopes of hitting a smooth creamy middle winning both bets (as the THH crew calls it ‘a Twinkie’) and won those as well. I think that has worked successfully about 3 times all season, and I did it correctly twice yesterday. As Ice-Cube once said, I have to say it was a good day.

Except for one mistake on my part that I just can’t get over.

In recent years, social scientists have begun to debate whether loss aversion exists. On a Sunday in Las Vegas, I can 1,000% guarantee it does.

Bet #1 Atlanta (+3.5) vs San Francisco

Bet #2 San Francisco (+9.5) vs Atlanta – In Game

Last Sunday, I complete my rudimentary handicapping and projected that Atlanta should be even if not slightly favored over the Forty-Niners. Instead they were 3.5 point underdogs. I rushed down to the MGM sports book and laid Bet #1 convinced that if I realized Atlanta was being underrated, so would others. A home team an underdog by more than a field goal? It seemed clear money would move on Atlanta and quickly Atlanta would be underdog by a field goal or less. As it turned out, money poured in on San Francisco and the line climbed to Atlanta +4.5 before receding to +4. I faced the choice of piling more money on my bet or hoping the middle didn’t bite me. I chose poorly after a 4-point Niner win. By buying early, I lost the bet. It would be my only loss on the day and, yet the only bet I still even think about.

I’m going to look at this in full later, reaching out to an expert to understand how to avoid this in the future.

Bet #2 was made in the middle of the first half when Atlanta took a 17-point lead. It seemed clear to me that Atlanta wouldn’t hold that big of a lead (see last week’s sacrifice of a 20-point lead to the Seahawks) so I put money on the Niners to buy into the coming rally and hedge my Atlanta bet. Unfortunately it was less than half of the original bet but at least I won back some of my Atlanta losses.

Bet #3 San Francisco/Atlanta Over (48.5)

Bet #4 San Francisco/Atlanta Under (62.5) – In Game

My single biggest bet of the weekend was on the Over. After a high scoring first half that saw 38 points put on the board, it looked likely that the Over would cash so when the Niners started the second half with a strong drive, the in-game betting at Cantor jumped to 62.5 and was paying even money (it would spike to 66.5 after the Niners TD). I decided to put down money on bet #4 as a hedge to a complete stop in scoring with the hope that there would be just enough scoring to win both. Sure enough that first Niner touchdown combined with a touchdown in the final minutes, tipped over the original bet. When the Falcons failed to respond, the 2^nd bet hit as well. Twinkies for everyone.

I won twice as much money on these bets as I lost on Bet #1 on Atlanta above. Yet, I haven’t stopped thinking about Atlanta. Damn you dirty birds.

Bet #5 New England/Baltimore Under (51.5)

Bet #6 New England/Baltimore Over (40.5) – In Game

I never got a good feel for the spread on this game. My system projected Pats by 10, but I leaned toward Baltimore. I wanted Baltimore as Underdogs by more than 10. Alternatively if the Pats could have gotten to be favored by 7 or less before the game I probably would have bet on them. But with the line floating between 8 and 9 I just stayed away.

Instead I did bet on the Under, based on the close, long history between these two teams. They know each other too well to allow for a high scoring game on a cold, windy day. Sure enough, the game started very slowly. In the first half, the in-game dropped all the way to 40.5, so I laid some money assuming there would be at least some jump in scoring in the 2^nd half. The Pats were already checked out by that point but the Ravens did just enough to push the total to 41.

Can I pause for a moment and note how dumb we all are every year to think the Patriots are a legitimate Super Bowl championship contender? At this point, they are Duke basketball – they are the same team every year, a team good enough to look dominant throughout the season but not good enough to win a title. Where Duke annually relies on good three point shooting and a couple un-athletic big men, the Patriots rely on a rhythm passing game and a defense doing just enough to allow the offense to out-score their opponents. As with Duke, they annually look good against inferior teams throughout the season yet in the post-season, an opponent disrupts the Pats’ passing game or Duke’s three point shooting goes cold and they lose. Yet, the very next year, by mid-season we are all right back to thinking they are the team to beat.

The Pats are soft. And always will be soft until there is a complete overhaul of the team. The media will continue to fluff Bill Belichick as some great mastermind but he has built a weak team, incapable of adapting when games go against their narrowly defined gameplan. Tom Brady is the perfect embodiment of the Patriots – pretty looking, but with such a limited skillset, incapable of taking a shot on the chin and still play well.

But at least I didn’t bet into that weakness. Unlike the Falcons. Damnit.

My Vegas condo agreement requires me to publicly tout gambling picks for the week. I can’t GUARANTEE A FIVE STAR LOCK OF THE MILLENNIUM, YOU ARE A COMMUNIST TRANSVESTITE IF YOU DON’T BET ON THIS but I can identify the games that seem to me to have an essence of Lockness about them, which smells like a mix of algae, brackish water and lizard breath.

Also, I am totally welcoming of all communists. Transgendered, transvestite or other.

It is amazing that this is the week of the Conference championship games, only three NFL games remain until September, yet the NFL is only the 3^rd biggest story in sports.

Somewhere deep underground in his lair on an unpopulated Japanese island, Roger Goodell is plotting a way to get back to the top of the sports section. I assume by the end of the week, he will suspend Adrian Peterson for being inhuman, Peyton Manning for being part cyborg or announce a new ‘2^nd season’ where each team will play 5 spring games. With no pads.

This should be the NFL’s greatest month of the year and they are an afterthought thanks to a cyclist and the non-existent girlfriend of a college linebacker. I am kind of surprised Goodell hasn’t already announced suspensions for both Armstrong and Te’o, just to see his name in print.

Thankfully, I got my game handicapping out of the way early this week to ensure I could get bets down at their optimal level (and then watched the lines move against me the moment I placed my bets, as usual). Since the Te’o story broke, my productivity levels have been approaching Paris Hilton levels. I can’t look away from Twitter awaiting the next non-sensical fact to drop. This story is sort of like modern art, I have no idea what I am seeing most of the time, yet I keep staring at the shark carcass suspended in formaldehyde.

I refuse to speculate (publicly) on what the hell happened because nothing makes sense and no one possibly extending all the way to Te’o himself knows what is going on.

That of course, won’t stop much of the media to jumping to whatever conclusion they feel predisposed to. Creating knee-jerk ‘narratives’ with too little information is the foundation of most large format journalism these days anyway. Narratives, like for example, a cancer survivor overcoming the odds and beating a cast of foreigners. Or a linebacker playing inspired by the struggles of a recently departed girlfriend.

As for Lance, call me cynical but when a guy beats cancer and then repeatedly wins a race filled entirely with people that are doping, I kind of assume he is doping as well  - understanding relationships like this is why I did well on the ACTs. To say his ‘confession’ is old news is an insult to old news.

But on the other side of this strange, weird week are the AFC and NFC Championships. A pang of pain shoots through me every time I see the Ravens in the title game knowing that should be the Broncos.

But that won’t stop me from betting. In fact, given there are only 2 games remaining and one involves two of my least favorite teams, let’s go all in on gambling, picking both games against the spread and against the over/under line.

If it wasn’t for gambling I would have a hard time stomaching the looming 3 hour Ray Lewis canonization that would make an awards show ‘In Memoriam’ look even handed and objective.

Sure, he once was involved in a man’s death but as we learn over and over again, real life facts matter little compared to what the media has decided is the overarching story of someone. The media, having learned absolutely nothing this week, will once again hold up an athlete as all that is right with the world.

So cheers Ray, in the media’s eyes you will always be a great man and a great leader. Not like those charlatans Lance and the girlfriend no one bothered to research.

<quietly nudges body of knifing victim under the bed with toe of shoe>

Lockness #1 – San Francisco at Atlanta Over (48.5)

The system that I have been using projects a total of nearly 57, so who am I to argue? The offenses that have moved on the Forty-Niner defense this year have required receivers on the outside as well as a tight end threat (see: Patriots). Enter Tony Gonzalez who has finally won a playoff game to burnish his ‘greatest tight end in history’ resume (though Shannon Sharpe can’t hear him over the shine coming off his three Super Bowl rings). The second half of last week’s game showed that the Falcons defense is incapable of tackling a mobile quarterback, especially when trying to stop a power running game. I think both teams can score a little and will blast through this line.

Lockness #2 – Atlanta (+4) vs San Francisco

Yes, we were all impressed by Colin Kaepernick’s dismantling of the Packers last week but the dirty secret is that he just hasn’t been that great on the road. Outside of at New Orleans and one great half at New England (neither of whose defenses will be confused with the ’85 Bears), Colin has looked like the inexperienced player he is when he ventures from the friendly confines of Candlestick. That horrid game at St. Louis. The implosion at Seattle. When he has faced solid defenses on the road, Kaepernick has not been the game changer he has been at home or against bad defenses. I am leaning to the Falcons because, I think this game is going to be close and I will happily bet on the home team, with the best record in the NFC, to lose by a field goal or less.

Full disclosure: Personally, I want the Forty-Niners to win. But separating heart from mind, being favored on the road by anything over a field goal seems like too much.

Lockness #3 – Baltimore at New England Under (51.5)

Again my system projects a different score than the line offered by Vegas. This time it suggests a score around 47. A look back at the history between these teams and it is easy to understand why. Outside of their week #3 match-up this year, these teams haven’t scored more than 48 points in this match-up since 2007 (5 match-ups). I just don’t see a back and forth scoring fest like we saw in both AFC games last week. These teams know each other well; they know the other team’s strengths and weaknesses. Last year’s AFC title game between the same teams (two teams that have seen little turnover in personnel), totaled 43 points. Throw in a forecast of a cool windy day in Foxborough causing havoc with the passing game and I am riding with boredom this week.

Lockness #4 – Baltimore (+8) at New England

Ok, I refuse to always be a slave to the machine. This time, I am going against what the system projects. My numbers say New England is about 10 points better than Baltimore but I don’t buy it, the system said the Broncos were 12 points better than Baltimore too. Baltimore may be this year’s Giants. A team that is playing better in the post season than they ever did in the regular season, making projections based on their regular season performance irrelevant. A defense getting strong (and healthy) at the right time and a quarterback not making mistakes. I think the Ravens keep it close – as stated above they know how to play against the Patriots and are coming in riding a wave of confidence from that ridiculous win in Denver last week. A game they had no right to win.

But as I am sure we will be reminded repeatedly, the great and glorious leader Ray Lewis willed his over-matched Ravens to the win.

This is one of those days when I know I will never be a professional gambler.

I don’t want to look back at this weekend. I don’t want to review my bets. Every time I think back about the games this weekend, I get a hollow feeling in my stomach like when you feel guilty or anxious about something but momentarily can’t remember what it is.

And the incredible thing is that I actually ended up making money this weekend. I won more money gambling than I lost.

But no amount of money can make up for the heart-wrenching loss for the Broncos.

I have prided myself for years on not getting emotionally involved in the NFL. I take wins and losses with a shrug of the shoulders and maybe a mumbled “that’s too bad”. Ever since the Broncos beat the Packers in 1998 to claim their first Super Bowl and get that Bills/Vikings scarlet ‘L’ off their chests, NFL games have been more of an entertainment for me than a emotional cage match.

When the Broncos blew that AFC Championship game against the Steelers in 2006, I was more frustrated than disappointed. Frustrated by a team that got out-coached and just wasn’t as good as the opponent. When I started writing here, my emotional armor became even stronger as I prided myself on remaining a dispassionate analyst.

But this weekend was different.  For the first time since the halcyon days of Elway and T.D., we had a solid team – as good on offense as on defense. The Broncos could look like a machine at the best of times this season – churning up yardage and points on offense, grinding down the will of the opponent on defense. It was the complete package. This team looked special.

And that is what made the loss so especially crushing. It wasn’t just that we lost, it was the way we lost.

(Note, I have moved from ‘them’ to ‘us’ and will remain here for the remainder of this writing because no one can feel this disappointed about an Other)

We had so many chances to win that game – and not just the obvious ones. Plays to put it away; get up by 2 touchdowns and break the will of an old, tired and cold team, yet we never could. We kept making mistakes and keeping hope alive for the Ravens until finally a slip here, a mistake there ended the season. That was what was infuriating about this game. There were glimpses of the machine – especially in the first half – but for the most part as soon as the machine started to hum Champ Bailey would get burned deep or a tipped pass would be intercepted and returned for touchdown or the refs would decide Tuck Rules are only enforceable if you are married to a super model.

I could sit here and criticize specific mistakes – the lack of a killer instinct late in both halves or the unwillingness to throw the ball down field or believing Champ Bailey is still quick enough to stay with one of the fastest receivers in the league in one on one coverage – but what is the point? It wasn’t one mistake that lost the game it was the totality. Whether it was the cold or a bye week’s rust, the machine was just enough out of tune all day to let Joe FREAKIN Flacco beat us.

I watched the game at the Hard Rock and ended up sitting next to a couple visiting from Denver. We spent the game chatting and joking and cheering. I think there were even a couple high fives or fist bumps in there. We had the instant comradery that comes from cheering on a common team in a sports book. When that kick sailed through the uprights and officially ended the Broncos season, all three of us got up and walked away – me to my car to drive home and hide in a Netflix queue for the remainder of the night, them to…wherever. We didn’t say ’bye’ or ‘nice to meet you’ or any sort of pleasantries. We just separated without a word, because there was nothing that could be said.

In other words, our relationship was just like the Bronco season – we met unexpectedly, had a better time than planned and then it all ended suddenly and painfully and with no explanation.

Bet #1 – Denver (-9) vs Baltimore

Did it help that I had money on the Broncos? Of course not. Over the course of the NFL season, I have grown to loathe large point spreads, essentially avoiding anything over a touchdown by midway through the year. Until this week. My math said the Broncos were double-digits better than the Ravens so I unemotionally bet. Did that loss add to my pain? Honestly, no. By the middle of the 4^th quarter I was just hoping for a win, bet be damned. Even in OT, when the bet was lost, I was cheering as hard or harder than I had all game. This just didn’t help my mood. As I wrote the other day, I crossed the streams of money and heart. And it was me, not the Stay-Puft Marshmallow man that was torn to bits.

Bet #2 – Atlanta (-2.5) vs Seattle

Bet #3 – Atlanta/Seattle 2^nd Half Over (22)

It takes a special kind of incompetence to turn a 20 point lead in the middle of the 3^rd quarter into a field goal in the closing seconds to win by 2, but that special kind of incompetence has been a Falcons home specialty all season. After yet another epic Falcons failure to cover the spread earlier this year I joked that they are the first team in NFL history to have a home field disadvantage. Nothing has changed. The Falcons are the most underwhelming good home team in the NFL. Continuously they find ways to sneak out wins they don’t deserve against lesser teams, but never by enough to cover the point spread. It seemed preordained that they would find a way to blow that 20-0 halftime lead (and I had calculated 46 total points for the game – and this bet reflected 42 points), so I put a semi hedge on the Falcons to let the Seahawks back in the game. Sure enough, the Seahawks came charging back, the Falcons went into their weekly hole and I broke even on the game. If only Mike Smith had the intelligence to go for two in the 3^rd quarter like everyone in America not named Brian Billick realized they should, I might have won both bets. But the Falcons are vehemently against gambling and are determined to teach a lesson to anyone that bets on them.

Bet #4 – New England v. Houston Over (47.5)

This was my largest bet of the weekend and the salvation to my bankroll (along with a couple successful NBA bets that may end up being the start of a beautiful friendship with football starting to wind down). I wrote last week that I projected significantly more points than this line (57 to be exact) and apparently I wasn’t the only one. With a relatively balmy day in New England, the Over jumped all the way to around 51 by kick-off. Needless to say I was feeling pretty good about this one. After a slightly sluggish start the teams kicked it into high gear, had 30 points at the half and cruised to 69 total points. It was an exceedingly satisfying financial gain, having successfully handicapped the game, bought at the best possible line and seeing it play out exactly as expected. My only disappointment was not betting even more on it.

At least then, I could have had big profits to fill the gaping hole left in my heart by the Broncos.

My Vegas condo agreement requires me to publicly tout gambling picks for the week. I can’t GUARANTEE A FIVE STAR LOCK OF THE MILLENNIUM, YOU ARE A COMMUNIST TRANSVESTITE IF YOU DON’T BET ON THIS but I can identify the games that seem to me to have an essence of Lockness about them, which smells like a mix of algae, brackish water and lizard breath.

Also, I am totally welcoming of all communists. Transgendered, transvestite or other.

It is really kind of hard to believe we are here. No more college football. Seven NFL games remaining on the season. We are closer to the vast never-ending desert that is the off-season than we are to Thanksgiving. Where did the season go?

If I look for a positive it is that with only 4 games to analyze, it is easier to get in-depth on each game and feel better about laying money on it. The negative being that with only four games each will receive a larger amount of money and the point spreads will be that much stronger. I also have more money to focus on a smaller menu of options.

So if you are keeping track at home that means I am applying more money to more sharply developed lines that I may or may not have a better feel for. Yes, that is a recipe for big losses. At least Notre Dame isn’t involved this weekend.

But that is what I signed up for and I am going down swinging. A year from now I will be back in Denver, dreaming of the ability to lose money on NFL playoff games. In the spare hours I am not back at my real job, I will stare longingly at the lines on donbest.com and identify where I would be betting. All of my complaints this year about losses and bad beats are just the whining of the spoiled – “But daddy, I don’t want a pony with white spots!”

Instead of lamenting tough lines and the inevitable losses, I need to spend the next three weeks just appreciative of what I am doing. How many people out there would kill to toss aside life’s pressures and spend a football season gambling in Vegas?

Put your hands down, someone might see you.

So, forget any more complaints from me. I get to spend the weekend in sports books of the Strip yelling and cheering for football games in which I have vested emotional and financial interests. Even If I lose my bets, I am the lucky one.

Lockness #1 – Denver (-9) vs Baltimore

Ok, if I lose this one, I will not feel lucky. For much of the season, I have avoided crossing the streams of emotional ties and financial bets. I may have learned a lot of tricks of the professional gambler this fall, but one component I have yet to master is the balancing of fan and bettor. I struggle to dispassionately analyze my teams. I spent the last weeks of the regular season bracing for the inevitable Broncos no-show game. Yet, it never came. They kept winning and, more importantly, kept covering the spread. I enjoyed the run as a fan, but never profited from it as a bettor. Which was fine with me.

But now, only four games remain and the Broncos possess home field advantage I would have avoided them again except the handicapping system I am now using, that showed such promise last week, labels them the best bet on the board this week. My system projects the Broncos to win by more than 12. At a 9 point line, this is the most value from a single team. Damnit.

Setting aside the quantitative rationale, what makes me feel more comfortable about this bet is the display by the Ravens after last week’s win over the Colts. The Ravens celebrated and honored Ray Lewis like their season was over. I know that it was Lewis’ final home game but that much of a celebration screamed ‘we know we are done’. Can they find some new wrinkle to close the gap that we saw between these teams when they played a few weeks ago? Hard to see that. Even if the Ravens defense finds a way to slow the Broncos offense, the Broncos defense has grown into such a solid unit, I struggle to see Joe Flacco’s unibrow coming into a raucous, freezing Mile High and move the ball consistently.

My math shows that the Broncos will roll and all of the intangible analysis I can do, says the same. Gulp.

Lockness #2 – New England vs Houston Over (47.5)

With memories of the Patriots beating the Texans 42-14 on December 13, it is easy to imagine another Patriots blow out. I actually think that the Texans will play this game much closer and would lean to them covering the +9 point spread. The parallels with 2010 make this very interesting.

On December 6^th, 2010 the Patriots beat the Jets in Foxborough 45-3. The Jets returned in the divisional playoffs and beat the Patriots 28-21. Could this forecast a much better game, even an upset? If so, I am not the only one that thinks so:

As of Thursday, Bob Scucci, sports book director for Coast Casinos, had taken twice as many bets on the New England Patriots as he had on the Houston Texans.

However, the total money bet on Sunday’s second divisional playoff game was almost even.

“The public loves the Patriots, but the bigger money is on the Texans,” said Scucci, a respected Las Vegas veteran, who oversaw the Stardust sports book during its prime in the 1990s.

But having just been burned by betting on historical parallels (Hi, Notre Dame!) and with my system projecting a 10-point Patriots win, I am hesitant to jump heavily on the Texans. If the line gets above 10 before the game starts I will probably bet something, but I feel much better about the Over.

We know the Patriots are going to score points. They always do, having scored less than 20 points once all season (back in week #2’s upset loss to Arizona, a loss that looks dumber and dumber by the week). If the Texans are able to find ways to score on the Patriots defense, then the Over should be easily by-passed. Not even the weather, the great variable in New England this time of year will cooperate – forecast shows a clear day and a high in the mid-50’s on Sunday.

My system projects nearly 57 points, passing the total line by almost 10 points. This makes the Over my favorite bet of the weekend and my biggest bet.

Obviously, this means the proper bet is a parlay of the Patriots and the Under.

Lockness #3 – Hail Mary of the Week: Parlay – Ravens, Packers, Seahawks Moneyline (+2400)

We’ve all been there. Bets have been going against us all day. Down to one last bet, it just isn’t worth trying to win less than double our money because when you are trapped at the bottom of a well, 3 feet off the ground is still deep in the well. We need the big score to get back. We could look for a parlay and hope 5 or 6 things all break our way or we can find one highly improbable thing that might, maybe, possibly, could happen and go all-in on it. This is the ‘Break Glass in Case of Emergency’ bet in the sports book.

With 2 big underdogs there are a couple high moneyline options if you think the Texans (+375) or Ravens (+350) can pull the upset, but if you are going to swing for the fences you might as well swing for McCovey Cove. This bet is less about making a lot of money and more about the emotional hedge. I will be actively cheering against this bet to win. My desire for the Broncos and Niners to win has nothing to do with making money, these are personal. Given that, if they are going to lose I might as well make some money off of it.

I threw in the Seahawks because despite my love of the city of Seattle I am getting a little sick of the orgasmic love of Russell Wilson and will be cheering for the Falcons this weekend (I also have a small bet on the Falcons to win and cover the -2.5 spread). Wilson has become the agnostic equivalent of Tim Tebow. He is the favorite quarterback of bandwagon fans that describe themselves as ‘not religious but spiritual’.

An exciting style of play, charisma and being on a team with a great defense has led to a never-ending media love-fest. Wilson definitely has a chance at a better career than Tebow, possessing more traditional quarterback skills, but that doesn’t mean the current obsession hasn’t gotten out of whack. Wilson going into Atlanta and getting reminded he is an undersized rookie would be a good way to quiet all of those media members that begin rubbing themselves every time a young quarterback shows up and exceeds expectations.

Fittingly for a city that has built an advertising campaign around the theme of ‘what happens here, stays here’, Last Vegas has a secret. It may not be obvious to a visitor here for a few days of drunken debauchery but the longer you stay here, the more obvious it becomes.

Las Vegas is an optical illusion.

Everything about the city is not what it seems to be. From the simple fact that the size of the casinos makes everything appear closer than it actually is to the illusion of glamour that permeates every casino, it is all a lie built to entice.

The Las Vegas of advertisements is pulled directly from an episode of Keeping Up with the Kardashians or Entourage – glamorous people having the time of their lives. But in reality, it is desperate people; people extending themselves beyond what they can afford chasing that image. Whether it is losing money at casino tables or squeezing into a dress 3 sizes too small and paying $20 per drink in a club, Las Vegas makes people believe they are living in a fantasy world for a few days. It is only when you pick up your head and look around do you see the people around you aren’t models. Assuming you are still sober enough to tell.

There are no clocks and no windows in casinos for a reason – partially to keep you gambling long past when you should and partially to re-enforce the belief that this fantasy world in which you are living is wholly and distinct from the regular world outside. Outside of here you can’t afford to lose $500 in 2 hours of playing craps. In here you can, because this isn’t the real world, it is more like a movie.

Of course, if you do escape the casinos, reality provides an ugly reminder of its existence. Not more than 2 blocks off the Strip sit old, worn down apartments housing people that came here chasing one dream and ended up living another.

I have now been here 3 months. Las Vegas is no longer a dream land of endless wonders for me. It is just where I live. I am staying right on the Strip but spend more time away from the Strip – whether shopping for groceries or working at a coffee shop – than I do in those palaces that have come to define VEGAS (all caps and dropping the ‘Las’ intended).

But still, I had forgotten Las Vegas’ other secret. Walking the endless expanse of the Strip it is easy to imagine those massive casinos stretching as long and as wide as Manhattan. In reality Las Vegas is still just an oasis in the desert. It isn’t a neverending metropolis. It is a small city surrounded by hundreds of miles of mountains and desert.

So, with my first Saturday ‘off’ since arriving I decided it was time to re-acquaint myself with actual nature. Twenty minutes after departing the Strip – less time than I need to get to a hiking area back in Denver – I arrived at Red Rock Canyon. An hour and a half later, after a run through the scrub brush sitting at the base of the mountains ringing the Las Vegas valley, I had lungs full of non-recycled air and I was reminded how small the Strip really is. Immersed in it, it can be all-consuming. But seen from a distance and it is just a string of buildings, no different than any major city in the country.

Las Vegas isn’t some magic wonderland where all responsibilities disappear and dreams come true; it is just a city selling an image like Hollywood or ‘the city that never sleeps’.

Every time I walk to the sports book in the MGM, I walk by David Copperfield’s theater and the bust of Copperfield that appears to have been sculpted by the blind girl from Lionel Richie’s video for ‘Hello’. I guess if MGM is willing to create a bust of you, you are probably a pretty good magician. Especially if you somehow also convinced a supermodel to agree to marry you.

Fitting, then that the couple ultimately broke up before marrying, citing their busy schedules. In Las Vegas, even for legendary magicians, the reality never matches the illusion.

Bet #1 – Army vs Navy – Under (56)

As mentioned last week, there was a strong history of these teams failing to cover the Over/Under line in recent year. These teams end up giving up a lot of points during the season to teams full of players dreaming of the NFL and score points on those same teams by employing the novelty of the triple option attack. But when playing each other, it is like playing their own mirror image –or like WOPR playing Thermo-Nuclear War against itself in War Games. There are no tricks because the other team spends all season practicing against a triple option. Both teams are filled with players who have more important things to worry about than the NFL draft. This equality leads to a stalemate. Close, low-scoring games decided by one ill-timed turnover.

Sure enough, as I walked back into my condo after my run, Navy led Army 17-13 with only a few minutes to play. Army got inside of Navy’s ten yard line before a muffed hand-off resulted in a fumble and a Navy win. Regardless of whether Army had held on to the ball, my bet was won long before.

Bet #2 – Indianapolis Colts (-5) vs Tennessee

Even after publicly stating last week, I was nervous about this game, due to losing earlier bets against the Titans on the road, I still put this bet down as it appeared to be one of the better bets on the board. Sure enough, the Titans took a lead but the Colts crawled back and trailed by 2 with a few minutes left. A long drive resulted in a field goal and one point lead after TY Hilton dropped an easy touchdown pass. Just when this appeared to have no chance of covering, the Colts intercepted Titans quarterback Jake Locker deep in the Titans end on the next possession. A touchdown could clinch the game and my bet. Instead, the Colts offense went nowhere, kicked a field goal and won by four. I am beyond complaining about close losses at this point. I have certainly enjoyed a few wins I didn’t deserve so naturally I am going to lose a few like this. Besides, it wasn’t the only instance of being so close to winning I would see on Sunday morning.

Bet #3 - Three Team Tease: Green Bay (-1) vs Detroit, Jacksonville (+8.5) vs New York Jets, Tampa Bay (-1.5) vs Philadelphia

While Jacksonville scored just enough to lose by seven to the Jets and cover on Sunday morning, the Bucs had one of the most inexplicable losses of the season to the Eagles. A team playing at home, with a chance to make the playoffs against a team quarterbacked by a rookie without his starting running back whose coach is weeks from being fired roughly 3 years too late.

Nick Foles had picked apart the Bucs defense all day but Tampa still held a 5 point lead when they punted the ball back to the Eagles with 2:51 on the clock. The Eagles converted two fourth downs, the Bucs secondary dropped at least one game-clinching interception and the Eagles ended up on the 1-yard line with 2 seconds to play. One last play for the win – Foles rolled out and found Jeremy Maclin on the sideline for the game-winning touchdown. It was an embarrassing effort for the Bucs, ended the feel good story in Tampa and killed this tease for me. Thanks Bucs.

Bet #4 – Detroit (+3.5) at Green Bay

Bet #5 – Green Bay vs Detroit Under (48)

I watched this week’s games at the Hard Rock, popping my in-game betting cherry with Cantor’s system. I won’t go into the myriad of bets I made (I will say betting on the Cardinals to not gain first downs and turn the ball over was lucrative), but will say two in-game bets on the Forty-Niner games helped wipe the stain of the morning off my bank roll. My final bets of the day, placed as I walked out, were these two on the Sunday Night game.

I haven’t had much success betting Sunday night games when the bets are placed at the end of a long day trying to win back losses from earlier but I felt good about these. The Lions have come out strong in recent weeks against Green Bay and Houston so getting them as an underdog of more than a field goal seemed like a lot of value to me (especially with a pay out of even money). More importantly, the cold, snowy weather in Green Bay seemed to imply to me that we would see a low-scoring, close game between two pass-happy teams that know each other well. Sure enough the Lions’ first drive was a seven and a half minute long touchdown drive. My only regret at that moment was not betting more on the first half bet. Ultimately the Lions took a 4 point lead into half, paying my first bet.

In the second half, the Packers rallied and shut down the Lions offense. Facing a 10-point deficit with less than a minute to play the Lions were deep in the Packers end. Needing two scores, rather than burning a lot of clock seeking a touchdown, they kicked a field goal and then tried for the on-side kick. They failed to recover the on-side kick, and the Packers won. More importantly, after the field goal the total settled at 47. Just enough under the 48 I had bet.

Bet #6 – New England (-3.5) vs Houston

This was the single largest bet I have laid since I arrived. Part of that derived from a conscious effort to increase the size of my bets; part of it was my absolute conviction that this was the type of game that the Patriots live for. As I said last week – home game against another high powered team; a chance to make a statement; of course the Patriots were going to win easily. We have seen this game so many times that I was never even considering placing a hedge bet on the Texans even as the spread slid toward Patriots -6.

The Patriots have been so consistently strong for so long we have seen all of the storylines at this point. We know exactly what to expect from Belichick and Brady. Dominating victories over other quality teams in the regular season. Close games against overwhelmed teams that they should dominate. Inexplicable losses in the playoffs or Super Bowl. The script for the Patriots season is more repetitive than The Bachelor.

It may be predictable and a little boring having the exact same Patriots story every season but at least we can profit from its unoriginality.

My Vegas condo agreement requires me to publicly tout gambling picks for the week. I can’t GUARANTEE A FIVE STAR LOCK OF THE MILLENNIUM, YOU ARE A COMMUNIST TRANSVESTITE IF YOU DON’T BET ON THIS but I can identify the games that seem to me to have an essence of Lockness about them, which smells like a mix of algae, brackish water and lizard breath.

Also, I am totally welcoming of all communists. Transgendered, transvestite or other.

<sigh>

And then there was one.

With only a single college game this week, we are consolidating the Lockness into a single post.

One sad, lonely post sitting on the dock of the bay staring forlornly as the sun begins to slide under the horizon. A cooler sits on the dock, a can of Busch Light sweating a ring of water on to the wooden plank. A fishing pole in the post’s hands, line extended out into the dark, green waters but there are no fish biting. A breeze blows a chill through the post’s flannel shirt and he shivers.

He knows his time is almost done. And now his one true companion – the yin to his yang, peanut butter to his jelly, the white spy to his black spy – is gone.

There are a few weeks left and the bowl season and then playoffs but the clock is ticking. Soon the sun will set, the beer can will be emptied and the Lockness will be gone for good.

Lockness #1 – Army vs Navy Under (56.5 points)

Some might argue it is un-American to gamble on the Army vs Navy game. It is wrong to wager on the outcome of a contest between two teams made up of the finest men our country can produce; teams of incredibly intelligent, hardworking men willing to make sacrifices few of us would. Many of these men could have gone to fancy schools and earned high paying careers but instead they are going through four of the hardest years a teenager could imagine with the only reward at the other end of the tunnel being a life of constant danger and unimaginable horrors. It cheapens what these men do by attempting to profit from their efforts.

In reality, gambling on this game is not an affront to their sacrifice but a celebration of it. In my lifetime our capitalist society has fought cold and hot wars against communists and religious fanatics that see our decadent way of life as an outrage to their equally corrupt ideologies. What better way to raise a middle finger to those that disparage the ‘western way of life’ to both celebrate our military heroes while at the same time making a little money on them. That is as American as anything in this country not named Brett Favre.

I am taking the Under here because (1) these teams haven’t hit the Over in their last six meetings and this line is higher than all but one of those lines that they didn’t hit and (2) I may make money off our Armed Services but I am not going to pick one over the other. I believe in all Armed Services equally not scoring a lot of points.

As Gerald Ford said: “A strong defense is the surest way to peace.”

I am sure ‘and winning bets’ is implied.

Lockness #2 – New England (-3.5) vs Houston

As disappointing as it is to have almost no college football this weekend, it is even worse that the NFL games aren’t really appealing. Either very large spreads or close spreads where it feels like a coin flip is the difference between the two. I like Indy at home -5 versus Tennessee, but have had some bad experiences in similar situations betting against the Titans (see: at Buffalo and at Jacksonville).

Instead I will go with the most public bet of them all – the Patriots. I tend to think the Pats are overrated by Vegas (7-5 against the spread), but not this week. I think they come out to make a statement. The Pats seem to get a little lazy and sloppy against inferior teams but at home, on national TV against the AFC team with the best record I think they come out and make a statement. Houston is still getting used to this ‘hunted’ tag and I don’t think they are quite ready for it. They got crushed by the Packers at home on a Sunday night earlier this year, a team structurally similar to the Pats in the reliance on a strong passing game and a defense with holes. The Pats meanwhile play their best against the best teams – look at what they did to the Broncos, a dominating win that looks much more impressive today than it did at the time.

If there is one bet I wish I could make on this game it is the Over on the number of times Jon Gruden uses the phrase ‘this guy’ during the broadcast. Between Tom Brady, Arian Foster, Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Andre Johnson and J.J. Watt, the ‘this guy’ over/under line would need to be higher than a line for a re-match of the 70-63 West Virginia/Baylor game. That Over would be more than a Lockness, it would be Super Double Lock of the Century.

Bets on Army, Navy and the Patriots. My patriotism is so strong it is like Brett Favre, George Washington and Stephen Colbert’s pet Eagle all rolled into one.

Lockness #3 – Three Team Tease of the Week: Green Bay (-1) vs Detroit, Jacksonville (+8.5) vs New York Jets, Tampa Bay (-1.5) vs Philadelphia

Sure, you could say these bets represent three games in which the teased spread moved across key seven and three point lines. That is the analytical rationale for these bets. But deep down, there is another even more logical rationale for these bets.

I am betting against dumpster fires.

The Eagles, Jets and Lions are all such messes that Lindsay Lohan looks at them and says ‘well, thank god I am in better shape than they are.’ Quarterback controversies involving who is less likely to throw that back-breaking 4^th interception. Coaches just a few weeks from the unemployment line. Honestly the biggest risk here is one of these teams just forfeiting the game completely and voiding the bet. But I will take that risk.

Lockness #4 – Hail Mary of the Week: Oakland Moneyline (+500) vs Denver

We’ve all been there. Bets have been going against us all day. Down to one last bet, it just isn’t worth trying to win less than double our money because when you are trapped at the bottom of a well, 3 feet off the ground is still deep in the well. We need the big score to get back. We could look for a parlay and hope 5 or 6 things all break our way or we can find one highly improbable thing that might, maybe, possibly, could happen and go all-in on it. This is the ‘Break Glass in Case of Emergency’ bet in the sports book.

Maybe it is the gun shy Bronco fan in me awaiting the inevitable Bronco no-show, but in a week where the few big underdogs are big underdogs for a reason (see graphic above), the best rationale for hitting a big pay day is the Raiders. A short week. Home game. Big underdog. Broncos having clinched the division last week. An offense that is its own worst enemy with turnovers and penalties.

Maybe the crazy Black Hole inspires the team to actually play disciplined football for once. Maybe the team wants to come out and show something against a rival on national TV to honor their coach, grieving over the loss this week of his father. The Raiders have played decent at points this season (beating Pittsburgh, nearly winning in Atlanta), so they aren’t completely worthless (see: Philadelphia). If there is ever a week where they might show up and beat a significantly better opponent, it is this week.