Twas the day before the day before Christmas and all through the house the heater was blasting because it was freaking cold outside.

I was never good at rhyming.

Is it just me or the holidays always a disappointment now that I am an adult? As a student, even into college, you have a couple weeks off, with at least one coming prior to Christmas to allow you to get all festive.

You spend days getting into brawls with 67 year old women over the 25% Scarves rack.

You pick out and decorate a tree, hang household decoration and wrap presents.

You relax, reading or watching TV with a fire in the fireplace and the lights on the tree.

Your parents blast the worst possible Christmas music for weeks on end.

Each night features a bowl game pitting one school with a direction in its name against a school with a city in its name.

In short, your entire attention is focused on the pending holidays.

Now as a working adult, I force myself to squeeze some rushed shopping between the never-ending work requests that pile up as co-workers and clients try to cram a month’s worth of work into the 3 working days before the end of the year. Forget household decorations.

Today is a holiday for my company, yet I have a list of work to-dos longer than my 9-year old niece’s Christmas Wish List.

Where the holidays used to be my favorite time of the year, now it is something I look forward to all year that inevitably disappoints. It is sort of like the city of London. I idealize it in my mind and then once there, realize it is just really crowded and expensive.

With that bah-humbug, depressing opening, let’s hit the THH for the penultimate NFL weekend.

In honor of happier holidays this week, I am using one of the 3 best Christmas TV specials of my youth to guide who to cheer on in each game.

For the record those 3 are: (1) Twas the Night Before Christmas, (2) Rudolph, the Red Nosed Reindeer and (3) Emmet Otter’s Jug Band Christmas

This time of year, there is only one question to ask yourself: What would Emmet Otter do?

Shadow and Turner are not joining because Turner grew up Amish and is not familiar with the season’s most generous mammal while Shadow regretfully admitted he didn’t like Emmett growing up, which is nearly as shameful as once being a Raiders fan.

But I will forgive him. It is the least I can do this time of year. Because I should be thankful for what I have: family, friends and a washtub with no hole in it.

Giants @ Jets

Obviously Emmet would be cheering on the Giants. First, Emmet loathes greed in all forms. With Rex clearly eating all food in his vicinity and refusing to share while Mark Sanchez nails every hot woman who doesn’t have a souvenir ‘I got hit by Derek Jeter’ baseball, the Jets personify greed. The Giants on the other hand have Eli Manning who is all about the family. If any NFL player would enter a musical contest to try and earn money to buy his mom a Christmas present, it is clearly Eli.

Bucs @ Panthers

One of the songs that Emmet and his pals play is entitled Barbecue and includes the following lyrics:

And your very favorite thing to do

Is get a perty girl dancin’ to jug-band music

And a mess of mama’s barbecue

Barbecue lifts my spirit

I swear that it never fails

And the sauce mama makes just stays there forever

If you dare to get it under your nails

Well you maybe poor with a wolf at your door

But money isn’t everything

You still got your song and a river full of fun

And you’ll always have a song to sing

So get the frown off your face

We’re gonna replace it with a grin and a dream come true

With a perty girl dancin’ to jug-band music

And a mess of mama’s barbecue

Clearly, Emmet would be cheering for Carolina and their messy, sweet, tasty barbecue in this one.

Browns @ Ravens

Emmet, his mom and his mates lost the musical contest to a bunch of lizards, snakes and a bear wearing sunglasses. A group that can’t be trusted and would do anything to make money. Sort of like Art Modell turning his back on the people of Cleveland and moving to Baltimore for a promised new stadium. Emmet, of all beings, can relate to the poor people of Cleveland and would be a proud member of the Dawg Pound this weekend.

I created this week’s THH theme a couple days ago before events far beyond the football field made it become even more appropriate.

I am not an Apple junkie. I have never owned an Apple computer. I don’t own an iPad; only partially because it sounds like a tampon from a Will Smith movie. I have never owned an iPhone but have owned nearly all of its smart phone competitors – from a Treo to 2 separate Windows phones to my current Droid. I do own an iPod (as if there is an alternative music player) but it is about 5 years old and holds no more than a gigabyte of music.

But even if those of us that don’t light candles on the Genius Bar must acknowledge Steve Jobs. In an era where businesses focus on cutting costs and strive to be the 2^nd entrant to a market (after the leader has taken the arrows from the locals), Jobs focused Apple not on making products to compete. He created objects to change the game.

While Apple products aren’t necessarily the most perfectly developed (see: the 437 versions of iPhones released) or technologically advanced, they can all be described with one descriptor.

They are all elegantly simple.

Jobs’ genius didn’t lay in inventing new products – his genius lay in taking existing products and making them simpler to use and nicer to look at. You may not be able to judge a book by its cover, but you can tell an Apple product by its casing.

As the world becomes flat, China takes over the international markets like the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man in Ghostbusters and companies are literally shipping their innovation to the cheapest offshore location, it was always nice to know that out there on the picturesque peninsula south of San Francisco, Jobs wasn’t just trying to cut costs, he was trying to find ways to improve our lives while becoming obscenely rich – truly the American dream.

I was certainly not Jobs’ ideal customer – I have no desire to sleep on the sidewalk for the opportunity to spend $600 on the newest technological gadget – but I still tip my hat to a man who may be the last in the line of true American iconoclastic inventors that started with Thomas Edison.

I like to think that Steve would appreciate this week’s THH. We are looking at 8 teams whose name is anything but Apple-esque. Where simplicity counts for everything, the convoluted naming convention would be banished. While Steve and his compatriots may have hated all of these teams, our task today is to find the even more disagreeable.

Fittingly accompanied by ‘You’ by TV on the Radio – played on my iPod.

Shadow: I must be getting old.   Used to be able to stay up all night playing Final Fantasy VII, sleep for 2.5 hours, drink some Mountain Dew and be right back at it.  Now…you just give me a couple of 16 hour days in a conference room filled with the combined funk of 30 variable bodies rotating in and out over the course of the day mixed with the lingering aroma from haphazardly consumed takeout meals and I am done in.  Physically and mentally drained.  But not too tired to turn in a THH entry for the week.

Theme: Teams with location-confusing names. Which team has better rationale for using a confusing name

College (State schools but named after cities)

Boise State v Fresno State

SD: Some people hate people from a different ethnic groups, countries or class of society. There are people that even hate a different region or state in their own country (though in defense most of those people hate Texas, which totally makes sense). I don’t have those problems, I focus my hate on a different group: State schools whose name is based on the city where they are located. This is not ancient Greece, filled with City-States. This is America. And in America there is no state named Boise. No state named Fresno. Those are cities inside states. No wonder our kids are so bad at Geography. Schools of higher learning don’t even know the difference between a city and a state, so how can we expect a 5th grader to know the capital city of the state of North Dakota (Bismarck – and I didn’t even google it). However, in this match-up of dysfunctional teams, I will side with Fresno. Setting asides Fresno State’s slightly odd obsession with the valley where it is located, at least California has other cities. In a state as big and diverse as California, the residents of Fresno probably do feel like their own little state. Outside of potato farms, ski resorts and bi-curious Senators what does Idaho have outside of Boise? Boise is Idaho. Quit trying to be uppity and differentiate yourselves from the rest of your state Broncos.

Shadow: We all know that both Turner and I have spent loads of time in the town with the Smurf turf.  It’s also kind of an important city in the state, what with it being the capital and all.  All of these could be reasons to justify its use of ‘State’…but you have forgotten one thing.  And, that one thing is this:  www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_dSjQ1qKrw   It may be a city in the middle of the California nowhere….but if someone goes to the trouble of classifying a “Fresno State of Mind”….that school wins.

Pittsburgh v Rutgers

SD: Pitt has done such a fine job of disassociating itself from its state that I actually thought Pittsburgh was a private school like the University of Denver or the University of Miami until I started researching this theme. Beyond a grudging admiration for the cloaking done by the Panthers I will go with them here for the same reason I went with Fresno. At least there are other cities and schools in Pennsylvania. Rutgers is THE state university of New Jersey – yet doesn’t seem to want to admit it. You hear the name of the river it sits next to more often than the state where it resides. Take pride in your state Rutgers. Just because New Jersey is the Jan Brady between New York’s Marsha (for its attractions and self regard) and Pennsylvania’s Cindy (for holding some promise but getting lost in the shuffle with the rest of the family), doesn’t mean you can’t take pride in your particular place in this world. You don’t see pro teams based in New Jersey pretending they aren’t form there, do yo…..oh. Nevermind.

Shadow: It is kind of hard to compete with the likes of a Penn or a Penn State.  While Pitt toils in the shadows of its bigger brethren in the state, with possibly a bit of an inferiority complex, what real choice did Jersey have?  Do any of these names roll off your tongue:  New Jersey State University?  UofNJ?  They were screwed.  Inability to create an acceptable sounding acronym is clear rationale for just naming your school for a war hero and calling it good.

NFL (Teams not named after the city/state where they are located)

Arizona @ Minnesota

SD: Marketing firms and focus groups were the end of good sports team names. Where once political incorrectness (Redskins), regional pride (Cowboys) and out-of-control egotism (Browns) created team names, as time went on names were chosen to maximize their appeal to as broad a customer base as possible. Team colors are chosen that resonate with specially selected focus group participants (i.e. the only people dumb enough or having so little else going on that they are willing to join a focus group) and we end up with 4 new teams with teal or purple as primary colors in a 5 year stretch (Marlins, Rockies, Jaguars, Panthers, Diamondbacks). But nowhere is this more prevalent than the choosing of a state name rather than a city. Hoping to build loyalty throughout their home states we get the Colorado Rockies – who have yet to play a game in Grand Junction – and the Florida Marlins, who play an 9 hour drive from some Florida residents. We also get the Minnesota Vikings and Arizona Cardinals. I pick the Vikings here. I suspect, given the twin-cities where they are based, that the Vikings chose ‘Minnesota’ so as not to have to pick between Minneapolis and St. Paul or, worse, the ungodly hyphenate Minneapolis-St. Paul Vikings. However Arizona has no excuse but the cult of inclusiveness. The oldest Arizona based professional team – the Suns  – has survived being identified with a single city and still garners the most ardent fans in the state. I say that isn’t a coincidence.

Shadow: Why bother limiting yourself to a single city when you can try and endear yourself to an entire state?  But let’s look a little closer and see these corrected names.  The Phoenix Cardinals versus the Minneapolis Vikings.  On the one hand, we have two birds (all right, one is mythical).  That is kind of like a double negative.  On the other hand, we are mishmashing Native American, Greek, and the Norse.  Exactly which demographic are you going for there?  In the end, we will side with Minnesota, since we are pretty sure the Cardinals ownership will do anything for a buck…and would eventually rename the team the University of Phoenix Cardinals, and confuse people everywhere into wondering why a college team is playing in the NFL.

NY Jets @ New England

SD: What is better: out-right falsehood or ambiguity to the point of uselessness? If you asked a foreigner to drive to the home stadium for each of these teams without a map, how long would it take him? He could spend days driving all over New York state. He could spend a week driving through all of the states that make up New England. The odds of him stumbling across the New York Jets in New Jersey and the New England Patriots in Foxborough, Massachusetts are pretty slim. While both of these names bother me, I guess I have to begrudgingly go with the Patriots. At least their name is true. New England isn’t very specific or helpful, but at least it isn’t out-right deception.

Shadow: The Patriots…..in true Bellicheat fashion, aren’t even satisfied with a state, they are going to claim a whole freaking region of the country.  Both the Jets and the Giants share the same sin of housing themselves across the river…but let’s be serious, have you seen the tax rate in New York?  I can’t really blame them.  Normally I would have expected myself to be using the word gluttony to describe Rex Ryan literally shutting down a Fogo De Chao….but in this case, I just can’t support the Pats pretending to represent 17 different states (that statement may be exaggerated).

I woke up in Tallahassee this morning for the first time in about 4 years and last time I saw almost nothing outside of our RV tailgate and the stadium. I haven’t spent real time in Tallahassee since about 2002. Going to get coffee this morning, Turner and I walked around downtown Tallahassee, admiring the brick roads, old buildings and Spanish moss hanging from the trees. A rain storm passed through last night and the weather is perfect; almost cool in the shade but warm in the sun with low humidity. In the, shockingly cool, dry air a hint of anticipation rides over everything as everyone in town has only one thing on their mind: the game.

In summary, I am in heaven.

I am almost left feeling a little pre-emptively sad for when we leave on Sunday. After the anticipation and build up: returning to a town where I lived for seven years and really grew up for what is the biggest college football game of the season – and the last 10 years for Florida State.

I am also feeling nostalgic for the ‘good old days’ – when FSU had top five match-ups every year and I was a young wide-eyed kid from the mountains of Colorado.

Our THH theme this week seems especially appropriate for my current wistful mindset. All about the here and the now versus the past.

Let’s just hope that Saturday night combines the best of both worlds; a great game today that reminds me of the dominant FSU teams of yesterday.

Turner couldn’t join us this week, as he is curled up in the fetal position, mumbling ‘Boomer Sooner’ to himself repeatedly preparing for tomorrow. But old friend Shadow is doing double duty this week.

Shadow: I am going to Hawaii on Monday.  For a week.  Just me and Mrs. Shadow.  This should make me happy.  So why do I only feel complete jealousy at Superdave and Turner spending 96 hours of quality time with college football, alcohol, food that is bad for you, and meaningful talks late into the night like in Stand by Me.  Let’s get to the hate before I start to get verklempt (again).

The Rules: One team in each of our THH match-ups had a distinguished period where they were one of the best around while the other is currently one of the best teams (sort of like a certain game in the panhandle of Florida this weekend). Which team do you like more – the one that was great or the one that is great?

(Clarification: the past team is based on the team at that time. So if you were a huge Ken Dorsey fan, he would be a deciding factor, not the current Cane trainwreck)

College:

Utah v BYU

SD: So we are stretching things a little as Utah went from BCS buster and perennial Cinderella to mid-pack PAC-12 team. But they are still more relevant than a BYU team that won a national championship in the eighties but now annually has 1 or 2 decent wins and 1 or 2 head scratching losses. Just like another mediocre, independent religious school that gets slightly more publicity for no reason. I am just happy to make a Notre Dame joke when discussing two completely unrelated schools. I will take Utah here, simply it is still a travesty that BYU won the national title over OU in 1985. (I have now fulfilled a contractual obligation to say one nice thing about OU.

Shadow: This one really has me torn.  For most of my teenagehood I absolutely hated BYU because I was a huge Air Force fan and was pretty much going to be a fighter pilot when I grew up.  But for one really screwed up year, I was in love with a Mormon girl, so I convinced myself I loved BYU….to the point where I even applied to go there.  Because of these conflicting memories…I think I will just go with the Utes.

OSU v Miami

SD: The U of old was easy to hate. No team has ever embraced the bad guy role like the late 80’s/early 90’s Miami teams. It was a more innocent time in the late 80’s, back when a young naïve Alaskan sportscasters could sleep with a visiting college athlete without worrying whether it would end their political aspirations and implode something called the internet that had yet to be given to the public. The U was something new, and for many people, kind of scary. They wanted to be loathed. They fed on people’s hate (and on really nice meals paid for by Luther Campbell eaten off of strippers). I miss that. I may have hated The U, but I loved the U for that. It gave us an enemy. But they were also so incredibly talented that you had to respect both their play and their “I don’t give a f**k.” attitude. I wish more teams would embrace the Darth Vader role. In fact, if another extremely talented team in Miami would tap their inner-U they would be a lot more entertaining. But LeBron wants to be Jerry Rice, not Michael Irvin. And because of that he will never be as legendary as either.

Shadow: Since one of my greatest wishes is for both of these teams to forever be irrelevant, this is an excellent use of the hierarchy.  Miami isn’t in my favorite team’s conference.  Point in their favor.  I also think they were royally screwed in their title game against OSU.  Point in their favor.  Plus when they were the cream of the college football crop, they were actually pretty fun to watch.  I could never say that about any incarnation of OSU.  GO Canes.

NFL:

Jacksonville @ NY Jets

SD: It is easy to forget now, that for a few years the Jaguars were considered one of the 2 or 3 best teams in the NFL. They almost always had a great regular season record and got close in the playoffs before losing short of the Super Bowl. Mark Brunell, Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith and Tom Coughlin were the Philip Rivers, LaDanian Tomlinson, Vince Jackson and Norv Turner of their day. But since I attended the game where the Broncos beat them on their way to their first Super Bowl victory in 1997, I can’t have much hatred. Not nearly as much as I have for loud-talking, lots-of-food eating Rex Ryan and swimsuit model/part-time quarterback Mark Sanchez.

Shadow: Seeing as how Jacksonville’s window of distinction coincides with brutal memories of what could have been a third ring for Elway and TD, I just can’t see myself on their side.  I may dislike Rex and San-Cheez, but part of it is minor jealousy when I think the Broncos aren’t too far behind the Jets personnel-wise, yet we fail to win close games where the Jets seem to.  I guess I will pull for the Broadway Boys here.

Green Bay @ Carolina

SD: It says something that football junkie Shadow questioned the inclusion of the Panthers as a ‘team that was once one of the best around’. A victim of timing, lost in the sands of time as one of those anonymous teams that lead the NFC in a time of AFC dominance it is easy to forget tha tin a 3 year span they played in both a Super Bowl and 2 NFC title games. Sort of like the Browns of the late 80’s – without a defining failure like The Drive or The Fumble. However, I really like our reigning Super Bowl champs. A happy, young, tight-knit team with a strong front office and the best fan base in sports. So Go Pack Go. Wipe away the memories of Jake Delhomme and Muhsin Muhammed. It is time for Panther fans to create a new dynasty anyway. Sort of like my Noles. 32 hours to kick off, gulp…

Shadow: A funny thing happens when your team isn’t QB’d by a tired, old gunslinger who should have been glue years ago…..you become instantly more likeable.  Maybe it is still part of the Super Bowl hangover and watching them put it to one of my least favorite teams….but the Panthers don’t have a shot here.  I will take the championship belt antics of Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Cheeseheads.

We are just 2 short days away from a new NFL season, there is a touch of cool in the air, and Bret Favre is still sitting on a farm doing anything his wife asks in the hopes she forgets about all of that Jenn Sterger sexting. Today is a good day.

It is also time for me to unveil my picks to win each conference and the eventual Super Bowl champion. While I would typically pause here to note that my prediction is as meaningless as all other predictions and should therefore be used for entertainment purposes only, that is no longer the case.

Last year I picked the Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl before the season and then over the course of the playoffs proceeded to go 13-9 in my picks (both first half and full game against the spread).

I’m basically exactly like Jimmy the Greek, less all of the racism and sexism, so you can take what I have to say as the TRUTH, and feel comfortable betting your life savings on it.

Actually don’t do that.

Really. Really. Don’t.

AFC East

There are 2 separate and equally fascinating races in the AFC East. First, between the Patriots and Jets to see who wins the AFC East title. Second, between the Dolphins and Bills for worst record and first opportunity to draft Andrew Luck. I am actually a little more intrigued by the 2^nd race, but that is for another day. I actually believe the Jets will find a way to win the AFC East this year. Part of that is derived from Mark Sanchez having another year under center, his inexplicable ability to win games he shouldn’t, the continued focus on putting more and better weapons around him and his dreamy gaze on the cover of this month’s GQ. I go weak in the knees when faced with his heart melting smile. I am also starting to think that Bill Belichick is trying to recreate late career Mike Shanahan. His ego tells him that because of earlier success he can do anything and be right. He doesn’t address glaring weaknesses (receivers). He brings in malcontents and believes his unique power is enough to control them (Ochocinco, Haynesworth) and his aging team’s playoff performance gets worse every year.

AFC East Winner:  Jets 11-5

Wild Card:  Patriots 10-6

AFC North

The AFC North makes me sad. I want things to change in the AFC North. I really do. I have spent 2 days trying to come up with a rationale for why the Steelers will falter or at least a joke about Roethlisberger raping someone. I can’t find one. Ben even got married! Until he has a late career Favre-ian scandal with a young woman we may not even have Big Ben jokes to make anymore. Sad, sad day. The Ravens tread water every year and try to get better to compete with the Steelers but never quite make it. They are the Kourtney Kardashian of the AFC North – not bad in her own right, but always playing 2^nd fiddle to her more famous sibling with a devious sexual past. This would mean that the Browns are Khloe Kardashian– not on the same level as her sisters but gaining some fame over the last year thanks to a new acquisition (yes, I just equated Lamar Odom to Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis). I guess that makes the Bengals, Bruce Jenner. Both had success many, many years ago but are now just sad, hollow shells of their former selves. Though in fairness, Bruce has had more work done to improve his appearances than the Bengals have.

Winner: Steelers 12-4

Wild Card: Ravens 10-6

AFC South

Can we just skip this one for now? Until we know the health of Peyton Manning, all predictions for the AFC South are meaningless. With a healthy Peyton for the majority of the season, the Colts run away with a bad division. Without Peyton, the AFC South turns into the Big East, and some team will get a game above .500 on the final Sunday to gain an undeserved post-season bid. The popular money is on the Texans, but until Gary Kubiak and Matt Schaub do anything but get the experts hot and bothered, I can’t trust them. The Titans are relying on Chris Johnson and 2 Seattle transplants (Hasselbeck, Locker) to carry them this year, though, the history of tiny running backs and players from Seattle are not promising. The Jaguars are looking to re-create the 2006 Denver Broncos season, in which a highly drafted rookie QB comes in and completely undermines the confidence of decent but not great veteran. We know how that one turns out. Basically, none of these teams should win the division. Let’s just assume Peyton is fully healthy for at least 12 games and give this one to the Colts again. Easier than trying to make an argument for why the Texans will suddenly learn how to win close games.

Winner: Colts 10-6 (Actually this could be any team. Someone will win the AFC South at 10-6 and lose in the first round of the playoffs)

AFC West

It has been 9 months since the end of the 2010 season, and I still can’t figure out how the Chiefs won the AFC West. It is like making the movie A-Team, it seemed reasonable at the time, but in hindsight just leaves you wondering what happened. Needless to say, it is hard to fathom how the Chiefs repeat. Sadly, it seems like the AFC West is all Chargers all the time. The homer in me wants to believe the Broncos will be vastly improved and be the sleeper of the division but I just can’t suspend my disbelief that far. The Broncos dropped from 8-8 to 4-12 thanks to an epically bad defense and a running game that was more imaginary than a game of quidditch. If John Fox can resurrect that running game and defense, Willis McGahee and Elvis Dumervil may finish 1-2 in Comeback Player of the Year voting and the Broncos could sniff a winning record. After showing some improvement last year, it is hard to see the Raiders improving any more. The Chiefs play a harder schedule this year, thank to winning the division so they should predictably fall back. That leaves the Chargers to pick up the scraps and win the division one last time before moving up the I-5 to Los Angeles.

Winner: Chargers 10-6

Wild Card

Patriots at Chargers: Hey, if the Mavs can win a NBA Championship, maybe this really is the year of the perennial also-ran. Chargers win.

Ravens @ Colts: With Ray Lewis on the field, a stabbing pain is always suspected to be a knife wound. Unfortunately for Colts fans, that is just Peyton’s neck getting slammed to the turf by Haloti Ngata. Ravens win.

Division Round

Chargers at Steelers: Nevermind. Guess it isn’t the year for the also-rans. Maybe Mark Cuban can buy the Chargers with his massive earning from Avion tequila and find a way to finally win them a championship after he moves them to L.A. Steelers win.

Ravens at Jets: An ugly game, and not just because Rex Ryan and Joe Flacco are prominently involved. The Ravens have been looking for a way to get their passing game going for years and yet to find it. A blustery January day in New Jersey is not the place to find it. Jets win.

AFC Championship

Jets at Steelers: A re-match of last year – way to go out on a limb with that one, Dave – that will probably play out in much the same way. Picking the Steelers to beat the Jets, is dull, unexciting and expected. Just like this game will be. But at least, it features 2 teams that no one likes, outside of the legion of bandwagon fans that have emerged over the last few years.

Steelers, 2011 AFC Champion.

Ugh.

Last week ESPN released a ‘revolutionary’ new stat purported to provide a better measure of a quarterback than traditional statistics.

The goal was to include such concepts as ‘Win Probability’ and ‘Clutch Index’ along with the standard measurables to definitively identify the best quarterback.

But just like ESPN’s belief that we all can’t hear enough about Brett Favre or Tiger Woods and his ex-caddie, this new stat fails to do anything beyond making ESPN feel more self-important.

I have done enough railing against the statistical revolution in sports and its myopic conclusions recently that I am starting to feel like Joe Morgan in the face of Moneyball or Pope Urban VIII punishing Galileo.

In fact, maybe theology is the best explanation for my sports world view. In a world increasing ruled by the science of sports statistics, I am decidedly in favor of the model of Intelligent Design: that some unseen or intangible force holds responsibility for many of the measurable things we see.

No two quarterbacks better define this unseen truth than Matt Schaub and Mark Sanchez, the two flip-sides of the statistical debate: one whose worth is greatly exaggerated, and one whose worth is diminished for the exact same reasons.

(I can’t believe I am about to write something positive about a Jet. If you see small bits of foodstuff on your screen, then you know my lunch was a casualty of this experiment.)

Entering his 3^rd year, Sanchez has the statistics of a below-average NFL quarterback. No matter which way you slice his stats, they scream mediocrity (unless he faces a 4^th and 1 in overtime of a hot September game, then he is pretty much unstoppable).

Even the new all-encompassing, all-knowing, all-seeing ESPN Total Quarterback Rating stat doesn’t think much of The Sanchize. Sanchez’s finest season (2010) ranks as the 62^nd best season of the last three years, well behind such notables as Shaun Hill’s 2008 season with San Francisco (#42), Seneca Wallace’s 2008 campaign with Seattle (#46) and Dan Orlovsky’s 2008 Lions season (#53).

I wonder how QBR accounts for Orlvosky running out the back of his own endzone? Did that help his Win Probablility or Clutch Index?

Despite Sanchez being slightly less valuable than Ryan Fitzpatrick and slightly more valuable than Carson Palmer, the Jets have posted a cumulative record of 23-14 and found their way into the AFC title game the last two years with him under center.

No stat is going to prove what anyone has seen if they have watched Sanchez.

The guy finds a way to win.

Whether it is throwing a hail mary that ends up becoming pass interference and a first and goal or finding Santonio Holmes on an 8-yard slant that becomes an overtime touchdown, Sanchez wins games, Orlovsky or Hill could only dream of winning.

Every day, Sanchez defenders try and make the same arguments about Sanchez that (probably a lot of the same) people make about Jeter: ignore his stats, the guys is clutch.

My long-lost brother Jason McIntyre of The Big Lead has wars of words with Sanchez haters everyday on my Twitter timeline. I want to be one of the haters, I really do. I want big, fat Rex to go away, give birth to that baby he has been carrying for 3 years and just shut up. I want the Jets to be humbled. But I can’t do it.

Every time I doubt and mock, Sanchez finds a way to stick it to me one more time.

I know many defenders look to Sanchez’s playoff record as proof of his greatness (or at least his Better-than-Seneca-Wallace-ness). But look at his 4 wins. Two are against the Bengals and Chargers, which is sort of like beating Ohio State and Oklahoma in BCS title games. The third was a rubber match against a confident/cocky Patriots team that the Jets knew better than Rex Ryan knows his wife’s bunions. The fourth was the win in Indy last year, that pretty much sums up Sanchez perfectly: painful stats (18-31, 189 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT), but out-scored Indy 10-6 in the 4^th to win 17-16.

Forget all statistical rationale and just accept the fact that Sanchez wins games.

Sanchez’s worst case career trajectory is Brad Johnson: a guy that never had a losing season as a starter until the age of 36; had decent statistics (career 82.5 QB Rating, with a peak of 90) and won a Super Bowl with a strong defense.

He wasn’t going to win you a fantasy league title, but he might win your favorite team a Super Bowl.

In contrast there is Matt Schaub, a statistical superstar who will never win your team even a 10^th regular season game.

In ESPN’s God-of-Quarterbacks-stat, Schaub’s 2009 season, comes in as the 9^th best season of any quarterback in the last three years. Even his 2010 season, when he personally submarined one of my fantasy teams, comes in as the 13^th best season – ahead of some guy named Aaron Rodgers, who apparently didn’t have a very good 2010 season. The Texans record in those 2 years is 15-17.

Schaub’s career record is 25-31. More importantly, can anyone remember one single time Schaub marched the Texans down the field when they most needed a win? I would ask a Texan fan, but I think it is more likely I could meet and ask Bigfoot.

Schaub is the king of putting up gawdy stats until the game is on the line and then disappearing faster than Steve Slaton’s fantasy relevance. Schaub’s (traditional) QB rating is nearly 30 points higher in games the Texans win. When winning his QB rating is 112, when losing 92, when tied 76.

Schaub is going to always be the guy that statisticians and NFL scouts love more than fans. He will post decent stats and will make some pretty throws doing it. He will always get lots of chances, and teams will mistakenly give up too much in trades and salary in the belief they can turn those stats into wins. But his team will never win. He will never lead a drive in the final minutes to win an important playoff game. He just doesn’t have it in him.

In short, where Sanchez is Brad Johnson re-incarnate, Schaub looks an awful lot like Marc Bulger.

I know which one I would rather have on my team.

The guy with the Super Bowl ring.

Back to finish out our guesses at how the First Round of the NFL draft would play out if only teams cared as much about amusing us as they do making money.

#17 – Patriots (from Raiders: I am sad that we don’t get to see what fast, talentless player Al Davis would take this year) – Anthony Costanzo is a tackle from Boston College. He is a hometown boy that can come in to protect the weepy face of the franchise Tom Brady. He can also become the next white, overrated fan favorite (or as I call it: the Birdman) after Danny Woodhead loses his job (foreshadowing!)

#18 – Chargers – The Chargers need to trade up and grab Patrick Peterson. Not only does he replace Antonio Cromartie’s pass coverage that the poor Chargers defense missed last year but also more importantly helps the Chargers abysmal special teams. However, there is no word on whether Peterson can replace Cromartie’s dominance of the Father-Son-Son-Son-Son Picnic.

#19 – Giants – The Giants should grab Da’Quan Bowers if the Clemson defensive lineman can fall to them. I know Bowers has some injury concerns, but it seems like the rest of the Giants defensive linemen are always hurt, so Bowers would immediately bond with his teammates in the ice tub.

#20 –Buccaneers – Bucs tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. infamously said several years ago that he is a soldier. If that were true he would spend more time at the MASH unit than Hawkeye Pierce. However if the Bucs draft Nate Solder, the massive CU lineman, they would have one player who at last sounds like a soldier.

#21 – Chiefs – I still have no idea how the Chiefs won the AFC West. The only thing that I can come up with is thievery. They took the quarterback and GM from the Patriots. They took their coach from the Cardinals. Really they are just trying to mimic successful teams. For that reason, they can take Mike Pouncey, twin brother of Steeler pro-bowler Maurkice. Mike isn’t as good as Maurkice but the Chiefs aren’t a good as the Patriots or Steelers, so he should fit in well.

#22 – Colts – The Colts have been looking for a running back to take the pressure off of Peyton Manning. Ever since Edgerrin James’ career fell apart faster than Hedo Turkoglu in the 2011 playoffs the Colts have drafted Joseph Addai and Donald Brown in the first round and neither has been able to keep the job. Daniel Thomas has one attribute that neither Brown nor Addai has, size. He can take a pounding. Like when Manning stretches him out with a high pass while a linebacker takes aim at his ribs. Unlike most of Peyton’s other receivers he might only miss 1-2 games rather than the rest of the season.

#23 – Eagles – Needing another target for Michael Vick, the Eagles should grab Kyle Rudolph, the tight end out of Notre Dame and top tight end prospect in the draft. Sure, Rudolph can help blocking for Vick and catching passes, but mostly I just want to see what a fan-base that booed Santa could do to a guy named Rudolph if he disappoints.

#24 – Saints – The Saints have the most prolific offense in the NFL. Their defense however isn’t quite Super Bowl caliber. This team gave up 41 points to the Seahawks! Aaron Williams, the corner out of Texas would give them at least one shut down corner. I don’t know if he can tackle Marshawn Lynch but he would at least fly fewer than 5 yards on the stiffarm.  

#25 – Seahawks – Speaking of the Seahawks, despite the offensive explosion against the Saints, the Seahawks need to start thinking about the future of their team. Matt Hasselbeck is 35 years old (and a free agent) and I think we can all agree Charlie Whitehurst could shave his beard and the nickname Clipboard Jesus would still be at least ½ right. Jake Locker is a living legend in the state of Washington. If the Broncos can roll the dice with Tim Tebow, the Seahawks should bring in an athletic freak Locker and he can have a year or two to learn behind Hasselbeck. Just hope Hasselbeck doesn’t teach him about making predictions.

#26 – Ravens – The Ravens have brought in a number of veteran receivers over the last couple of years. Unfortunately, those receivers have about as much chance of beating a corner deep as Donald Trump has of winning the Presidential election. Drafting local boy Torrey Smith of Maryland would finally give the Ravens a receiver whose 40-yard dash time can’t be timed with a sun-dial.

#27 – Falcons – Looking to replicate the success of big/small back tandems the Falcons should draft Kendall Hunter to pair with Michael Turner. As both the Titans and Panther proved in years past the small/big running back combo is key to having a great regular season and failing in the playoffs. That would be totally new for the Falcons.

#28 – Patriots – Breaking hearts across  every Ben Affleck movie set, Belichick drafts running back Mikel Leshoure out of Illinois. Using a first round draft pick on a runningback from an underperforming Big 10 team? What could possibly go wrong for the Patriots?

#29 – Bears – Now that Bears quarterback Jay Cutler has become engaged to Laguna Beach start Kristin Cavallari, the Bears need to invest in a lineman to protect Cutler, who proved last winter he won’t be challenging Brett Favre’s consecutive game played streak. Tyron Smith, played at USC so he is used to playing with players more interested in being successful in Hollywood than in being successful on the football field.

#30 – Jets – The Jets need to continue to strengthen their defense while their young offense matures together. Linebacker Akeem Ayers out of UCLA provides another playmaker for the Jets defense. Rex Ryan really thinks Ayers could be a star. Rex is positive he has the best feet of any linebacker in the draft.

#31 – Steelers – They will have to trade up for him, but I have been saying for months that Nick Fairley’s destiny is to be a Steeler. He can dominate offenses from his defensive line position. His game is centered on playing in the shades of grey of the rule book and he is used to a fan base that is so loathed by others they would actually desecrate their most treasured symbols.  

#32 – Packers – It is easy to say that the Super Bowl champs don’t need more help but don’t forget that Aaron Rodgers was sacked 31 times last year. Adding Mississippi State’s Derek Sherrod would help shore up the Packers offensive line. And we all know that all of Green Bay loves players from Mississippi. I am already looking forward to Sherrod’s first teary-eyed press conference in 2024.