Thursday, December 8, 2011 will go down as one of the strangest days in the history of sports. From the moment we woke up (at least those of us here out west) to the moment we went to bed, bombshells were dropping like we were in 1941 London.

We start with a superstar baseball player who may or may not be 31 years old signing a 10-year contract with a new team in L.A.. My favorite part of this is the catch-22 it puts Angels fans in. The only way a 10-year contract (ending when Pujols is at least 41 – that’s right at least) is worth this much is if Albert starts borrowing some of Barry Bonds training secrets. But then if Pujols borrows Bonds training secrets, the Angels become a laughingstock and it is totally not worth it.

Then a bunch of pitchers traded teams but none of them are life changing, so as a non-baseball fan I will cover them all thusly: fast forward to May, I switch on a <insert name of baseball team> game and say to myself: “Oh yeah, I forgot <insert name of pitcher traded yesterday> went to <insert name of baseball team>. Wow, he already gave up 5 runs and it is only the 3^rd inning? Good signing.”

By lunch time, the NBA had kicked into high gear as the Mavs pulled a Marlins “post-championship fire sale” for secondary players – Caron Butler to the Clippers and (possibly) Tyson Chandler to the Knicks.

But these moves were immediately eclipsed by Chris Paul’s knee brace….I mean Chris Paul trade rumors.

As the sun began to kiss the mountains here in Denver, it became confirmed that the Hornets were trading Paul to the Lakers in a 3 team trade that would send Pau Gasol to Houston and Lamar Kardashian to New Orleans – along with several former Rockets and Bruce Jenner’s left-over face skin.

At that point, the day has been fun, interesting and somewhat logical (even if the Angels overpaid by 4 years and $50 million). But like some sort of horror movie, as night descended, so did the insanity.

I would have thought it was a bad joke or the fever induced delirium of a bitter Gator fan when the first rumors of Charlie Weis becoming head coach at Kansas materialized. But then it actually happened.

A team desperate to be even relevant in the college football landscape went out and hired a proven loser. An arrogant, lazy coach living on an undeserved reputation who has done nothing but fail since he left the cold embrace of Lord Belichick. Rather than gain respect and attention by actually trying to build a real program through hard work, KU leadership decided to go for the sex tape approach to grabbing attention. Yes, releasing a sex tape is a good way to get attention, but then you are famous for all the wrong reasons. Let’s stop this analogy right here, because the words ‘Charlie Weis’ and ‘sex tape’ in the same paragraph are starting to make my eyes bleed.

KU will undoubtedly be mentioned more frequently on College GameDay next season with Charlie scooting around the sidelines – but most of that attention will be of the ‘what is wrong with KU under Weis?’ variety.

A long time Weis loather, I am thrilled with the jokes that this affords me but, as a FSU fan, saddened by the years of dominating UF that we have lost.

As we were still laughing at KU, David Stern took it as a personal affront and said “Oh, you think that was short-sighted and misguided? Well, take a look at this!” before disallowing the Paul trade.

Apparently some whiny owners complained about competitive balance. Which is an interesting argument, so I hope one of those idiots answer one question for me:

How does Paul signing with a big market team next summer as a free agent, netting the Hornets absolutely nothing in return, help them compete better than the 4 players and draft pick they would have gotten in this deal?

Apparently Dan Gilbert, owner and Chief Idiot on Charge of the Cavaliers would prefer every other team sit through their own Decision each summer as their superstars head to (literally) sunnier destinations.

What a long, strange day it has been.

In honor of the Trading Places Thursday we just witnessed, this week, we pick two games that involved some sort of swap. So which team won that ‘trade’?

Indianapolis @ Baltimore

SD: In the middle of a cold winter night nearly 20 years ago, the Colts snuck out the door and left Baltimore like Cal Ripken’s wife leaving Kevin Costner’s house. Allegedly. It took another decade but when Cleveland wouldn’t give Art Modell a new stadium for his crappy Browns, Baltimore finally had a team to root for again. Since both moves were completed each team has won a Super Bowl. Each team has produced one of the best players of the last fifteen years (Peyton Manning, Ray Lewis). Each team has a key contributor accused of murder (Marvin Harrison, Ray Lewis – again). In the end, the city of Baltimore got all of the same things that Indianapolis took from them, outside of an original scroll of On The Road, without having to move to Indianapolis. That sounds like a win to me.

Chicago @ Denver

A little less than 3 years ago, the Broncos sent a whiny Jay Cutler to the Bears in exchange for Kyle Orton’s neck beard and some draft picks. A year ago, this question would have looked like a no-brainer as the Broncos were headed to the #2 overall pick and the Bears to the NFC title game. But now, Cutler’s inability to stay healthy (or fight through injuries), his tabloid relationship with professional attention whore Kristen Cavalleri and the Bears perennial mediocrity must leave Bears fans scratching their moustaches and drowning their sorrows in Old Style. The Broncos are riding the high of the Tebow phenomenon, winning inexplicable games every week and becoming America’s (if not God’s) Team. Bronco country tried a time period in which we had a good, but not great team and a good but not great quarterback that we rode to early round playoff exits every year (see: 2000-2005). It wasn’t fun. Give me the lunacy and ridiculousness of the Tebow era any day, even if it doesn’t last any longer than his famous speech.

 When it comes to NFL disappointment, I live by the motto: It is better to burn out than fade away.

With the Colts getting pounded by perennial tease Houston on Sunday, you can expect to hear much over the coming days and weeks about how dependent the Colts are on now-injured Peyton Manning.

Kerry Collins and the Colts looked so bad that there is already talk of the Colts being in the race for soon-to-be #1 overall pick Andrew Luck if Manning can’t return this season.

The argument is also being made that the Colts are so bad sans-Manning that it actually resolves his on-going rivalry with Tom Brady. The Patriots went 11-5 without Brady. Assuming the Colts are much, much worse than 11-5, this is ‘proof’ that Manning is the superior quarterback.

I don’t know if that is true but I do know one thing it does definitively prove: the rest of the Colts are not very good.

Which is the biggest story that seems to be ignored in all of this.

Bill Polian, Colts Vice Chairman (i.e. man in charge) has run this team into the ground.

The Colts leadership have done an abysmal job putting together a team. Bill Polian is the key architect of the Colts organization and is a widely hailed genius. He helped build the 1990’s perennial bridesmaid Buffalo Bills and then came over to the Colts and chose Manning over Ryan Leaf.

After Polian drafted Manning he continued his drafting prowess by taking Pro Bowlers Reggie Wayne in 2001, Dwight Freeney in 2002 and Dallas Clark and Robert Mathis in 2003. Along with Manning this became the core of a Colts that have won at least 10 games and made the playoffs every year since 2002.

The consistency of these players and greatness of Manning has greatly overshadowed the real truth about the Colts – that they are thinner than Karen Carpenter.

Being a small market team, the Colts have made a living in the draft and at the low end of the free agent pool, refusing to commit the resources to chase high profile, high cost free agents, letting them go to bigger markets and bigger egos. While that approach is fiscally responsible, it puts much greater importance on good draft picks and low-end free agents – riskier players that don’t have an obvious track record of success.

Since that 2003 draft, the Colts have continuously missed with their high draft picks. Players like Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, Tony Gonzalez, Tony Ugoh and Jerry Hughes have been brought in to address glaring needs. Yet all have failed to play to their draft position.

The lower end of the draft has been slightly better with players like Austin Collie, Antoine Bethea and Pierre Garcon, but those are complimentary players, not players that can be the foundation of a franchise.

The list of notable free agents signed essentially begins and ends with Jeff Saturday and Adam Vinatieri.

Whether through Polian’s exhaustion, ego or incompetence, the Colts have failed to find a next generation to begin filling in as their core players age. We saw it last year when Clark was hurt and the Colts offense never really recovered. Of course, now it is staring us in the face with Manning on the shelf.

Polian will forever get a pass from an NFL press that propagates conventional wisdom and always focuses on long ago glories, thanks to his earlier successes, but someone needs to note how he has failed over the last 5 plus years.

As a Bronco fan, I am well acquainted with purported geniuses whose reputation lasts longer than their achievements.

Mike Shanahan is a great game day coach and won 2 Super Bowls with one of the 5 best quarterbacks in history, one of the most talented running backs in history and a group of experienced free agents. But after the retirement of Elway, Terrell Davis’ injuries and the retirement of the free agents, Shanahan was never able to find a next generation to continue the Bronco’s success. He ignored trouble areas (like the defensive line) and instead obsessed with positions that he better understood and believed were the key weaknesses on the team (defensive backs at one point, quarterback, wide receiver). As the team atrophied with his continued draft and free agent misses, so did the results until Shanahan was finally fired about 2 years too late.

It is clear that the Colts are on the same trajectory. Someone must be held to account and it can’t be Jim Caldwell, least of all because he may have actually passed away 2 years ago – it is hard to tell.

Polian was once a great GM but that was long ago. He has failed for the better part of the last decade. Whether this is a result of losing ability and motivation with age, an ego that has convinced him he is infallible or a myopic point of view that refuses to acknowledge his fine work of the past is getting old, the Colts are stagnating.

If you look at the other teams that have been consistently strong over the last decade they have followed a common formula. A strong core consisting of a coach and quarterback and a revolving cast around them. The Patriots are famous for constantly turning over players – preferring to release a quality player a year early than a year late. Mike Vrabel is released and replaced by Jerod Mayo. Asante Samuel is sent packing and in steps Devin McCourty.

The Steelers have had significant turnover on their offense with players like Willie Parker and Santonio Holmes leaving and being replaced by Rashard Mendenhall and Mike Wallace. They have had less turnover on the defensive side and it is starting to show its age but still has younger players like Lawrence Timmons to act as the core for the next generation.

The Colts have Manning and….

Whether Manning’s injury definitively proves his greatness over Brady is a pointless debate. My friend Doug and I still argue Elway vs. Marino and they both retired a decade ago.

But Manning’s injury does definitively prove that the Patriots organization is better than the Colts organization.

Refreshing an organization is healthy – whether at the top or the bottom. It is time for the Colts to get some new blood in leadership.

Bill Polian may want you to pay no attention to the man behind the curtain but someone needs to be held to account for this failure.

We are just 2 short days away from a new NFL season, there is a touch of cool in the air, and Bret Favre is still sitting on a farm doing anything his wife asks in the hopes she forgets about all of that Jenn Sterger sexting. Today is a good day.

It is also time for me to unveil my picks to win each conference and the eventual Super Bowl champion. While I would typically pause here to note that my prediction is as meaningless as all other predictions and should therefore be used for entertainment purposes only, that is no longer the case.

Last year I picked the Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl before the season and then over the course of the playoffs proceeded to go 13-9 in my picks (both first half and full game against the spread).

I’m basically exactly like Jimmy the Greek, less all of the racism and sexism, so you can take what I have to say as the TRUTH, and feel comfortable betting your life savings on it.

Actually don’t do that.

Really. Really. Don’t.

AFC East

There are 2 separate and equally fascinating races in the AFC East. First, between the Patriots and Jets to see who wins the AFC East title. Second, between the Dolphins and Bills for worst record and first opportunity to draft Andrew Luck. I am actually a little more intrigued by the 2^nd race, but that is for another day. I actually believe the Jets will find a way to win the AFC East this year. Part of that is derived from Mark Sanchez having another year under center, his inexplicable ability to win games he shouldn’t, the continued focus on putting more and better weapons around him and his dreamy gaze on the cover of this month’s GQ. I go weak in the knees when faced with his heart melting smile. I am also starting to think that Bill Belichick is trying to recreate late career Mike Shanahan. His ego tells him that because of earlier success he can do anything and be right. He doesn’t address glaring weaknesses (receivers). He brings in malcontents and believes his unique power is enough to control them (Ochocinco, Haynesworth) and his aging team’s playoff performance gets worse every year.

AFC East Winner:  Jets 11-5

Wild Card:  Patriots 10-6

AFC North

The AFC North makes me sad. I want things to change in the AFC North. I really do. I have spent 2 days trying to come up with a rationale for why the Steelers will falter or at least a joke about Roethlisberger raping someone. I can’t find one. Ben even got married! Until he has a late career Favre-ian scandal with a young woman we may not even have Big Ben jokes to make anymore. Sad, sad day. The Ravens tread water every year and try to get better to compete with the Steelers but never quite make it. They are the Kourtney Kardashian of the AFC North – not bad in her own right, but always playing 2^nd fiddle to her more famous sibling with a devious sexual past. This would mean that the Browns are Khloe Kardashian– not on the same level as her sisters but gaining some fame over the last year thanks to a new acquisition (yes, I just equated Lamar Odom to Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis). I guess that makes the Bengals, Bruce Jenner. Both had success many, many years ago but are now just sad, hollow shells of their former selves. Though in fairness, Bruce has had more work done to improve his appearances than the Bengals have.

Winner: Steelers 12-4

Wild Card: Ravens 10-6

AFC South

Can we just skip this one for now? Until we know the health of Peyton Manning, all predictions for the AFC South are meaningless. With a healthy Peyton for the majority of the season, the Colts run away with a bad division. Without Peyton, the AFC South turns into the Big East, and some team will get a game above .500 on the final Sunday to gain an undeserved post-season bid. The popular money is on the Texans, but until Gary Kubiak and Matt Schaub do anything but get the experts hot and bothered, I can’t trust them. The Titans are relying on Chris Johnson and 2 Seattle transplants (Hasselbeck, Locker) to carry them this year, though, the history of tiny running backs and players from Seattle are not promising. The Jaguars are looking to re-create the 2006 Denver Broncos season, in which a highly drafted rookie QB comes in and completely undermines the confidence of decent but not great veteran. We know how that one turns out. Basically, none of these teams should win the division. Let’s just assume Peyton is fully healthy for at least 12 games and give this one to the Colts again. Easier than trying to make an argument for why the Texans will suddenly learn how to win close games.

Winner: Colts 10-6 (Actually this could be any team. Someone will win the AFC South at 10-6 and lose in the first round of the playoffs)

AFC West

It has been 9 months since the end of the 2010 season, and I still can’t figure out how the Chiefs won the AFC West. It is like making the movie A-Team, it seemed reasonable at the time, but in hindsight just leaves you wondering what happened. Needless to say, it is hard to fathom how the Chiefs repeat. Sadly, it seems like the AFC West is all Chargers all the time. The homer in me wants to believe the Broncos will be vastly improved and be the sleeper of the division but I just can’t suspend my disbelief that far. The Broncos dropped from 8-8 to 4-12 thanks to an epically bad defense and a running game that was more imaginary than a game of quidditch. If John Fox can resurrect that running game and defense, Willis McGahee and Elvis Dumervil may finish 1-2 in Comeback Player of the Year voting and the Broncos could sniff a winning record. After showing some improvement last year, it is hard to see the Raiders improving any more. The Chiefs play a harder schedule this year, thank to winning the division so they should predictably fall back. That leaves the Chargers to pick up the scraps and win the division one last time before moving up the I-5 to Los Angeles.

Winner: Chargers 10-6

Wild Card

Patriots at Chargers: Hey, if the Mavs can win a NBA Championship, maybe this really is the year of the perennial also-ran. Chargers win.

Ravens @ Colts: With Ray Lewis on the field, a stabbing pain is always suspected to be a knife wound. Unfortunately for Colts fans, that is just Peyton’s neck getting slammed to the turf by Haloti Ngata. Ravens win.

Division Round

Chargers at Steelers: Nevermind. Guess it isn’t the year for the also-rans. Maybe Mark Cuban can buy the Chargers with his massive earning from Avion tequila and find a way to finally win them a championship after he moves them to L.A. Steelers win.

Ravens at Jets: An ugly game, and not just because Rex Ryan and Joe Flacco are prominently involved. The Ravens have been looking for a way to get their passing game going for years and yet to find it. A blustery January day in New Jersey is not the place to find it. Jets win.

AFC Championship

Jets at Steelers: A re-match of last year – way to go out on a limb with that one, Dave – that will probably play out in much the same way. Picking the Steelers to beat the Jets, is dull, unexciting and expected. Just like this game will be. But at least, it features 2 teams that no one likes, outside of the legion of bandwagon fans that have emerged over the last few years.

Steelers, 2011 AFC Champion.

Ugh.

Back to finish out our guesses at how the First Round of the NFL draft would play out if only teams cared as much about amusing us as they do making money.

#17 – Patriots (from Raiders: I am sad that we don’t get to see what fast, talentless player Al Davis would take this year) – Anthony Costanzo is a tackle from Boston College. He is a hometown boy that can come in to protect the weepy face of the franchise Tom Brady. He can also become the next white, overrated fan favorite (or as I call it: the Birdman) after Danny Woodhead loses his job (foreshadowing!)

#18 – Chargers – The Chargers need to trade up and grab Patrick Peterson. Not only does he replace Antonio Cromartie’s pass coverage that the poor Chargers defense missed last year but also more importantly helps the Chargers abysmal special teams. However, there is no word on whether Peterson can replace Cromartie’s dominance of the Father-Son-Son-Son-Son Picnic.

#19 – Giants – The Giants should grab Da’Quan Bowers if the Clemson defensive lineman can fall to them. I know Bowers has some injury concerns, but it seems like the rest of the Giants defensive linemen are always hurt, so Bowers would immediately bond with his teammates in the ice tub.

#20 –Buccaneers – Bucs tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. infamously said several years ago that he is a soldier. If that were true he would spend more time at the MASH unit than Hawkeye Pierce. However if the Bucs draft Nate Solder, the massive CU lineman, they would have one player who at last sounds like a soldier.

#21 – Chiefs – I still have no idea how the Chiefs won the AFC West. The only thing that I can come up with is thievery. They took the quarterback and GM from the Patriots. They took their coach from the Cardinals. Really they are just trying to mimic successful teams. For that reason, they can take Mike Pouncey, twin brother of Steeler pro-bowler Maurkice. Mike isn’t as good as Maurkice but the Chiefs aren’t a good as the Patriots or Steelers, so he should fit in well.

#22 – Colts – The Colts have been looking for a running back to take the pressure off of Peyton Manning. Ever since Edgerrin James’ career fell apart faster than Hedo Turkoglu in the 2011 playoffs the Colts have drafted Joseph Addai and Donald Brown in the first round and neither has been able to keep the job. Daniel Thomas has one attribute that neither Brown nor Addai has, size. He can take a pounding. Like when Manning stretches him out with a high pass while a linebacker takes aim at his ribs. Unlike most of Peyton’s other receivers he might only miss 1-2 games rather than the rest of the season.

#23 – Eagles – Needing another target for Michael Vick, the Eagles should grab Kyle Rudolph, the tight end out of Notre Dame and top tight end prospect in the draft. Sure, Rudolph can help blocking for Vick and catching passes, but mostly I just want to see what a fan-base that booed Santa could do to a guy named Rudolph if he disappoints.

#24 – Saints – The Saints have the most prolific offense in the NFL. Their defense however isn’t quite Super Bowl caliber. This team gave up 41 points to the Seahawks! Aaron Williams, the corner out of Texas would give them at least one shut down corner. I don’t know if he can tackle Marshawn Lynch but he would at least fly fewer than 5 yards on the stiffarm.  

#25 – Seahawks – Speaking of the Seahawks, despite the offensive explosion against the Saints, the Seahawks need to start thinking about the future of their team. Matt Hasselbeck is 35 years old (and a free agent) and I think we can all agree Charlie Whitehurst could shave his beard and the nickname Clipboard Jesus would still be at least ½ right. Jake Locker is a living legend in the state of Washington. If the Broncos can roll the dice with Tim Tebow, the Seahawks should bring in an athletic freak Locker and he can have a year or two to learn behind Hasselbeck. Just hope Hasselbeck doesn’t teach him about making predictions.

#26 – Ravens – The Ravens have brought in a number of veteran receivers over the last couple of years. Unfortunately, those receivers have about as much chance of beating a corner deep as Donald Trump has of winning the Presidential election. Drafting local boy Torrey Smith of Maryland would finally give the Ravens a receiver whose 40-yard dash time can’t be timed with a sun-dial.

#27 – Falcons – Looking to replicate the success of big/small back tandems the Falcons should draft Kendall Hunter to pair with Michael Turner. As both the Titans and Panther proved in years past the small/big running back combo is key to having a great regular season and failing in the playoffs. That would be totally new for the Falcons.

#28 – Patriots – Breaking hearts across  every Ben Affleck movie set, Belichick drafts running back Mikel Leshoure out of Illinois. Using a first round draft pick on a runningback from an underperforming Big 10 team? What could possibly go wrong for the Patriots?

#29 – Bears – Now that Bears quarterback Jay Cutler has become engaged to Laguna Beach start Kristin Cavallari, the Bears need to invest in a lineman to protect Cutler, who proved last winter he won’t be challenging Brett Favre’s consecutive game played streak. Tyron Smith, played at USC so he is used to playing with players more interested in being successful in Hollywood than in being successful on the football field.

#30 – Jets – The Jets need to continue to strengthen their defense while their young offense matures together. Linebacker Akeem Ayers out of UCLA provides another playmaker for the Jets defense. Rex Ryan really thinks Ayers could be a star. Rex is positive he has the best feet of any linebacker in the draft.

#31 – Steelers – They will have to trade up for him, but I have been saying for months that Nick Fairley’s destiny is to be a Steeler. He can dominate offenses from his defensive line position. His game is centered on playing in the shades of grey of the rule book and he is used to a fan base that is so loathed by others they would actually desecrate their most treasured symbols.  

#32 – Packers – It is easy to say that the Super Bowl champs don’t need more help but don’t forget that Aaron Rodgers was sacked 31 times last year. Adding Mississippi State’s Derek Sherrod would help shore up the Packers offensive line. And we all know that all of Green Bay loves players from Mississippi. I am already looking forward to Sherrod’s first teary-eyed press conference in 2024.

These days, the news coming from the world of football is more depressing than owning Cavaliers season tickets. With nothing but gloom and doom about the chance of seeing a new collective bargaining agreement any time soon, all of the experts are preparing the rest of us for a NFL-less autumn.

Before we get to the nothing- but-bad-news-football world of 2011, let’s take one last look back at the season we just enjoyed. Assuming you aren’t a Panther fan. Or Patriot fan. Or even a Steelers fan.

It is time for my annual rite of self-inflicted public torture that I like to call ‘Looking Ahead by Looking Back’ in which I review (and mock) my own pre-season predictions and provide the earliest predictions for the 2011 season….you know, if we have one.

My preseason AFC predictions:

AFC East

Everyone and their half-blind 7 year old niece is picking the Jets to win this division. However, these are the same people (less a few of the nieces I think) that constantly tell us how a premier quarterback is the key to winning in the NFL. You can say a lot of things about Mark Sanchez: he dates hot women, he has a cool nickname (the Sanchise), he does a good imitation of other people’s strange walks, etc. but one thing you can’t say is that he is a premier quarterback. Last year, he had a QB rating of 63. That is almost in the Jamarcus range (pre-Purple Drank…maybe). Sanchez threw 12 TDs and 20 interceptions. This is the QB of the best team in the AFC and maybe the NFL? Rex can say it all he wants, but it doesn’t make it true. Remember another hot rookie QB, Matt Ryan? His QB ratings each year: ’08 – 88, ’09 – 81 – and that was with expanded talent around him. Teams had a year of tape to learn from and study. I think the combination of the hype and too many off-season moves where winners and leaders (Alan Faneca, Thomas Jones) being replaced with unproven or troublemaking but talented players (Antonio Cromartie, Santonio Holmes) could be too much for the Jets. With the Jets failing that leaves the usual suspects to fill their void. The Patriots will be the same ol’, same ol’ team:  great passing game, questionable run game and defense but a coach and a (actual premier) QB to lead the way. The sleeper will be the Dolphins, who are essentially the Jets with less publicity. Solid young QB, solid running game, upgraded offseason passing game (B-Marsh) and defense (Karlos Dansby). As for the Bills, well they are a short 9 months from being in prime position to draft Jake Locker so….good for them.

AFC East Winner: Patriots (10-6)

Wild Card: Dolphins (9-7)

Actual Winner: Patriots (14-2)

Actual Wild Card: Jets (11-5)

Not the worst start for me. I did successfully pick the Division winner, though I low-balled their win total by as many wins as the Broncos had this entire season (wiping away tear). All of that anti-Jets ranting looks marginally less brilliant. Though I still stand by most of it (except for one thing – sorry Santonio). It would be fascinating to see Mark Sanchez’s passer rating by quarter. I would bet that his 4^th quarter rating is at least 10 points higher than any other quarter. He just finds a way to win. It may be ugly, but he is successful. Any high school girl can see that.

As for the Dolphins….would it make a difference if I thought J-Lo’s ownership of the Dolphins, her stint as judge on America’s Got Talent and her apparent Benjamin Button disease in which she gets hotter and her marriage more inexplicable each year meant that 2010 would be the year of J-Lo and the Dolphins? No? Ok, fine. I whiffed. Chad Henne sucks.

2011 Prediction: Ok, Rex Ryan, I give in. Your out-of-control ego and even more out-of-control eating are too much for me. I haven’t believed in you or your team for two years and both years you have made the AFC title game. I give up, you win. In 2011, the Jets will go 16-0 in the regular season and win every game 47-0.  I shall never doubt Rex again.

2011 Winner: Jets (Wild Card: Patriots)

AFC North

Much like the Jets in the AFC East, the Ravens are getting all the hype in the AFC North. With expanded targets for Joe Flacco (Anquan Boldin and now T.J. Houshmandzadeh), a consistent defense and Ray Rice and Willis McGahee at running back there are few questions about the Ravens outside of ‘do I really want to own any Ravens on my fantasy team’? Well, I own Ray Rice if that answers your question. With Big Ben sitting in figurative jail for the first 4 weeks of the season (lucky for him it is only figurative), the Steelers could start out slow and never quite catch up, especially with a defense I still don’t trust – presence of insured hair or not. The Bengals have 2 separate VH1 reality shows on their roster but might be better off if that meant Flavor Flav and Brett Michaels were slated to start. I just can’t trust the Bengals. Whether it is not believing Cedric Benson can duplicate last year, Carson Palmer can play solidly again or T.O. and Ochocinco can both be fine with reduced targets, something just doesn’t quite click for me on this team. If the team starts out 0 and 2 thanks to a tougher Conference champ schedule that starts at New England and then home for Baltimore, we could quickly spiral into an ugly, ugly situation. Which will just make Ochoncinco feel like he is back on his reality show. There might be another team in this division…hmmm…I just can’t recall who it is right now.

AFC North Winner: Ravens (11-5)

Actual Winner: Steelers (12-4)

Actual Wild Card: Ravens (12-4)

So I underestimated the Steelers ability to withstand Big Ben’s suspension (as well as the Steelers fans ability to put things like morals and values ahead of winning football games). The comment about the defense looks especially foolish…right up to the Super Bowl. Better late than never, I guess. Thanks Aaron. I also overestimated Joe Flacco’s ability to take advantage of his new targets and the Ravens offense as a whole. Thank god, the rest of my fantasy team was stacked so I could still win my league with Rice underperforming. And yes, this was just another pathetic attempt to interject my fantasy team winning its league for the first time. Hey, if we are looking back let’s look at all the highlights of the season. Which is why I don’t need to mention the Browns or Bengals further.  

2011 Prediction: Another too-close-to-call between the Steelers and the Ravens. But, the Packers showed how to beat the Steelers. Unfortunately, the Ravens aren’t equipped to take advantage of those exposed weaknesses. It’s like when Ray Lewis sees a guy outside of a club wearing body armor. He knows what he wants to do to him, but isn’t equipped to do it.

2011 Winner: Steelers

AFC South

It seems like the Colts have owned the AFC South for decades. But that isn’t true. The AFC South wasn’t even created until 2002. See, it hasn’t even been a decade. Do I think their reign ends this year? Umm, no. People like to try and draw attention to themselves on the internet by being the loudest, most obnoxious and most different (hey it worked for Glenn Beck). While I have been known to go a little over-the-top on occasion (all completely warranted for the record), above everything else I am rational. So, maybe I am destined to have 8 readers forever. I would rather have 8 readers and be correct in picking the Colts than sky-rocket up the google rankings by picking the Texans to go to the Super Bowl while also claiming Peyton Manning was the real father of Kourtney Kardashian’s baby. Until the Colts show sort of chink in their regular season armor (let’s not discuss the playoffs just yet), I have to pick them. Speaking of the Texans, I hate to be the oil spill in the gulf of expectations but I am not buying it. A harder schedule thanks to drawing the NFC East and placing 2^nd in the division last year, an inconsistent QB (last year: 8 games with QB rating over 100; 6 games under 90) and an unproven running game all scream to me ‘unfulfilled expectations’.  The Titans however are getting no pre-season press outside of the fantasy magazines putting Chris Johnson #1 overall. Two years ago the Titans went 13-3 and last year the Titans had a 2,000 yard rusher and their only losses after Week #6 were to the Colts and Chargers. With a full off-season knowing he is the MAN, Vince Young could have a surprisingly solid year. Keep CJ healthy, find a go-to wide receiver (I have my fantasy league money on Kenny Britt) and the Titans could be the surprise team of the year. The Jaguars could have drafted Tim Tebow and at least gotten some publicity. They didn’t so I will give them what they want – to be ignored.

AFC South Winner: Colts (11-5)

Wild Card: Titans (10-6)

Actual Winner: Colts (10-6)

I really went .500 in the AFC South. Another division winner called correctly.  And I really went out on a limb with this one. I also called the epic disappointment that everyone who was hyping the Texans in the pre-season felt. But really that was so obvious, I am almost embarrassed to have gotten it so correct. Just like people will say when Justin Bieber shaves his head and moves to a Llama farm in Chile in 2022 with his ‘friend’ Gunther. On the other hand, I ignored the once-every-five-years inexplicable resurrection of the Jags. They should just rename their team the Locusts, since the come from nowhere on a regular basis and wreak havoc before just as suddenly disappearing. Remember this when people are hyping them in August. The Titans really hurt me though. I was all-in on the Titans. And then VY went off the rails again and we were subjected to the Kerry Collins experience.

2011 Predictions: If the Colts can win in 2010 when every receiver who has even seen a Peyton Manning commercial was hurt, how can we expect them to lose next year? Remember the Jags will disappear again, the Titans are a mess and the Texans are the Texans. For the record, change a few of these proper names and the entire preceding paragraph can be applied to the 2012 Presidential election.

2011 Winner: Colts

AFC West

Is this finally the year? For all outward appearances the Chargers got worse in the offseason. They lost Cromartie, Jamal Williams and maybe Vincent Jackson. Unfortunately they kept Norv Turner and Shawne Merriman is another year removed from his PED-fueled prime. The Chargers just scream ‘collapse’. But I think they hold on for another year. Not because of their greatness but mostly because of the widespread mediocrity across the rest of the AFC West. I think the Broncos are better than they are given credit for in Vegas. I don’t think they are any worse than their 8-8 record last year when they played a tougher schedule (replacing NFC East with NFC West is like going from the SEC to the Mountain West). With Orton under center they at least have an offensive leader. They have also tried to re-design the defense to fit in the 3-4 scheme better than the undersized players who got run over at the end of last year. I think they are as good or better with the loss of Marshall who took his talents to South Beach in a trendsetting move among athletic egotists. Orton became too fixated on a guy that isn’t a playmaker. Now Orton will spread it around and hopefully one or two wide receivers will do more than catch an 8-yard pass and give back 3-yards before being tackled. Their problem will be the run game. Both generating their own and stopping the other team. Some are picking the Chiefs as a sleeper this year. More like coma pick. I have no idea what anyone sees in the Chiefs. They have an overwhelmed head coach, two new coordinators that have done nothing but fail since they left the Belichickian womb, an astoundingly mediocre quarterback, two ‘ok’ running backs and an ok defense. If the Chiefs get within one game of being .500 I will go get that Charlie Weis lap band surgery. They are at best slightly below average. If there is a sleeper pick in the AFC West, it might be the (gulp) Raiders. With a competent QB for the first time in nearly a decade, some young skill players with potential and a consistently solid defense, this is one of those teams that could get inspired by an emotional head coach and make a surprising run. I just think they are still a year and a playmaker or two away. So, the Chargers win the division again in what looks like the most Rock-Paper-Scissors even division in the land.

AFC West Winner: Chargers (9-7)

Actual Winner: Chiefs (10-6)

Boy I guess I am lucky that the Chiefs were 4 games over .500 or I would be calling a Doctor for an estimate on that surgery. On first glance this was probably the worst prediction I have ever written. But let me take a Palin-like swipe at making this sound like a good prediction. I did call the fall of the Chargers. I also accurately predicted Kyle Orton’s solid passing year for the Broncos. And I think we can all agree that the Raiders are an up-and-coming team.  So it isn’t all bad. Now about that Chiefs pick. Well, I still don’t know how they won 10 games. I saw them get crushed by the Broncos in Denver. No team that gives up 49 points to the Broncos should win 10 games. In fact, I think the Union should get that put in the new CBA.

2011 Prediction: You may find this hard to believe but I don’t think the Chiefs will repeat. I will give you a minute to catch your breath from that shocker. But then who steps in? Sadly, I will go back to the Chargers. I am really close to picking the Raiders but just can’t do it because…well…it’s the Raiders.

Playoffs:

Wild Card:

Dolphins @ Chargers: Last year a young QB with a solid defense and good running game from the AFC East came into San Diego and surprised the Chargers in the playoffs. With Norv leading the way it is Déjà vu all over again.

Titans @ Patriots: the Patriots are getting old. Can the wily veterans hang with the young speedsters from the Titans? Not any more. 

Divisional Playoffs:

Dolphins @ Colts: Manning picks apart the Dolphins like a Japanese fisherman in The Cove.

Titans @ Ravens: Titans defense just not enough to hold back Ravens potent offense. Wow, that is a sentence I never expected to write. Maybe I should throw in a Flacco unibrow joke just for old times’ sake.

AFC Championship:

Colts @ Ravens: This game is won by the home team – as their past two playoff games have been. Ravens won in 2009 in Baltimore while the Colts won in 2010 in the Oil Can. For this scenario, let’s assume Ravens get the homefield and the win. Why? I don’t know.  Let’s say cold weather and wind keeps Manning from getting the passing game going while Flacco plays well thanks to the added insulation stretching across his forehead (there it is).

AFC Champions: Ravens

Actual AFC Champion: Steelers

Breakdown of my playoff predictions:

Pros: Patriots fall at home to young team. AFC West champ loses at home in Wild Card round. AFC Champion is a tough, defensive team from the AFC North. That joke about the Peyton Manning and the Dolphins.

Cons: Overestimated Colts and Ravens offenses. The phrase “Titans versus Ravens AFC Divisional playoff game”.  The phrase “Ravens’ potent offense”. Basically anything and everything associated with Baltimore and the Ravens up to but not including Edgar Allen Poe.

2011 Prediction: There is always turn-over in the NFL, especially as the best teams start to get older. Some team could come out of nowhere and go deep into the playoffs while teams like the Colts and Patriots start to show their age (I can’t believe I am saying this, but the Raiders are a prime candidate for this). Or nothing changes and the AFC playoffs look exactly like they did this year. It could really go either way. There is only one guarantee about next season.

2011 Winner: Every Fan.

If there is a 2011 season, I don’t care who wins as long as they play the game. 

After 2 posts where I made an honest attempt to analyze the games this weekend and provide actual opinions usable to those of you living in Nevada and the Bahamas, I am back to do what I do best: make nonsensical jokes about the games.

(NOTE: Many of you are probably saying, “This is what you do best? That is just sad.” A fair point for which I have no response, other than to say – hey, you are reading it. Loser)

After resting our starters for the last couple weeks of the season, the THH regulars are rested and ready to go for the playoffs.

Well, all of us except Turner. Basking in the glow of his victory in the inaugural Poulan Weedeater New Year’s Day Gambler’s Anonymous Betting Pool Championship brought to you by Allstate, Turner has decided he is too good and wise to waste time on making non-sensical, joking THH decisions.

A poor New Year’s resolution if I ever heard one.

Shadow: I am surprised that SuperDave is letting me participate in this THH, since I am being shunned for my inability to meet up with him and Turner on New Year’s Day for another marathon college football/queso/Little Smokies/Mcintire Secret Recipe Dip event.  I was able to keep up with them via text and email throughout the course of the day, but it just wasn’t the same as being there, and now I am a pariah.  But, in life, there are sacrifices to be made, and friendships even older than this one to honor, so I stand by my decision.  If I was in the Big 10, I would be both a Legend and a Leader.  

Speaking of the Big 10/11/12, once again, the Iowa Hawkeyes are the pride of that conference’s Bowl Season, even if their bowl win comes at the conclusion of a very disappointing year.  The schedule seemed aligned for Iowa to make a serious run at the Big 10 title and the Rose Bowl, but their failures have been well documented in this column over the past 6 months.  Some people would say that Ohio State also upheld the honor of the conference…but they should have lost if Arkansas would know how to pick up a blocked punt and walk into the end zone.  It is time to turn our attention to the NFL…and with trusty ol’ #7 back in the stable of the Broncos…perhaps things might be looking up.  Would have liked us to have also ousted our GM and brought in fresh talent at both GM and Head Coach….but I think Elway is a step in a good direction, and maybe we still will replace Xanders.  Hopefully next year, we will have the Broncos to talk about in the NFL playoffs.

Jets @ Colts: Rematch of Super Bowl 3. Should Suzy Kolber have given Joe Namath a kiss? If yes, cheer for Jets. No, cheer for Colts

SD: For the love of god, NO, she shouldn’t have kissed him. Can you imagine what he smelled like? Probably, some combination of hours old bourbon, old man funk, some brut cologne right out of 1976 – basically like Bad Blake when he comes back to the stage after vomiting in the trash-can out back in Crazy Heart.

(Tangent: you have to love Hollywood. Jeff Bridges is an old, washed-up drunk yet nails Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart. Would we ever see a movie where Helen Mirren is a coke-addict that ends up in bed with Jake Gyllenhaal? No. Hollywood: where sad middle aged male fantasies get put on the big screen).

Giving Namath the Heisman was the best move Suzy Kolber did since leaving the educational sports show SportsFigures that used to play on a loop on ESPN2.

Good move, Suzy and go Peyton!

Shadow: I, like SD, am still reeling from post-Hard Knocks Traumatic Stress Syndrome, which makes it nearly impossible to cheer for anyone in a Jets uniform…even Shonn Greene who is among the small contingent of Hawkeyes in the NFL.  Luckily, SD has handily setup his premise so that I don’t have to.  There is no way in HELL that anyone should have to kiss Joe Namath.  Ever.  I will be begging Peyton and his Colts to put an end to this paper tiger from the Meadowlands.

Packers @ Eagles: rematch of 1960 NFL Title game. Would you go see a play about Vince Lombardi? If so, then you are cheering for the Packers. No, the Eagles.

SD: Yes, there really is a play on Broadway about Vince Lombardi. It stars the dad from Wonder Years (Dan Lauria) and the mom from Who’s The Boss (Judith Light). This is how my generation thinks. Do I really want to pay hundreds of dollars to sit there and have Kevin’s dad spout platitudes about winning being the only thing? I will just be sitting there wondering if Kevin’s mom is mad that her husband is now hanging out with that rich hussy from Connecticut that had a live-in male prostitute/housekeeper and a mother hornier than any old woman north of the Golden Girls house.

Now if they had brought in Danica McKellar in the role of Vince Lombardi and Alyssa Milano in a role as her life partner and they end up in some sort of Black Swan-esque Natalie Portman/newly-single Mila Kunis bedroom scene, I would be first in line. Until then though, I have to say no to Vince and yes to the Eagles.

Shadow: I love the theatre.  This past fall I saw Shrek the Musical with the wife and kids, and it was a rollicking good time.  Next summer I will venture forth to see Rock of Ages, a Broadway musical set around 80’s Hair Band music.  But two hours talking about the invention of the “Packer Sweep”, a play that was pretty much painfully boring to watch, but also nearly unstoppable?  I just don’t know.  I watched the Lombardi doc on HBO, and I am just not sure that this would make for a riveting night of entertainment.  Then again, I spent 2 hours last night watching the Book of Eli, which I thought would be excellent, but made me want those 2 hours back…so what do I know.  Here’s what I think…I would probably think about going, and then never actually end up getting tickets.  So, looks like I am backing the reclamation project called Vick, and his fellow Iggles.