After an epic wildcard weekend when an improbable performance led to a week of accolades and praise, a massive failure in the divisional round has again raised questions as to whether he should really even be trying to earn a living doing this.

Never have I felt closer to Tim Tebow than I do now.

He had that 29-23 OT win against the Steelers. I had going 7 of 8 on first half and full game picks against the spread. We were on top of the world. Entire SportsCenter episodes were devoted to some or all of our exploits. After years of facing doubters, we were finally proving we belong.

Until the damn Patriots came along.

Tim’s season ended after an abysmal, embarrassing 45-10 loss in New England. I finished the weekend having gotten 2 of 8 picks right – which means my picks were just slightly more accurate than Tim’s passes.

However while Tim will head off to the Philippines to circumcise children –which we really hope he completes with a much higher accuracy than his passing – I battle on and turn my attention to the AFC and NFC title games.

Can I salvage my overall 9-7 record and successfully return to the land of riches and showgirls?

Will we see a re-match of Super Bowl XLII?

Will the Harbaugh brothers face each other in a Super Bowl that sets a record for ‘Most reporters beating tired storyline into ground before end of first week’ after narrowly edging out T.O.’s ankle in 2005 and Patriots pursuit of 19-0 in 2008?

Will Alex Smith and Joe Flacco makes us all pine for a Brad Johnson / Rich Gannon Super Bowl?

What percentage of Green Bay’s population dies of a broken cholesterol-clogged heart in the next year?

I can’t answer all of these questions. Ok, I can’t answer any.

But I can make more picks that have a 56% chance of being correct!

AFC Championship – Ravens @ Patriots

Halftime: Patriots (-4.5)

Full Game: Patriots (-7.5)

This past Thursday would have been Edgar Allan Poe’s 203^rd birthday. In an odd tradition a mystery man would show up every year and place 2 roses and a half-full bottle of cognac on the Baltimore area grave of the author of The Raven, inspiration for the team’s name. In an even odder tradition, people started showing up each year to watch a mystery man show up and place 2 roses and a half-full bottle of cognac on the author’s Baltimore area grave. While I think this says a lot about the entertainment options in the greater Baltimore area, I have to admit, there is a history/mystery geek buried in me that loves this tradition so, so much.

Sadly, for the 3^rd year in a row the Poe Toaster did not show up and the annual vigil is being abandoned. Sad as the end of this tradition is, it is equally sad to me that this may be the end of the greatest nickname east of AK-47, Andrei Kirilenko.

So what does this have to do with the Patriots, Ravens game? Nothing. And everything. On a weekend after the Poe Toaster vanishes for good, will the Ravens be able to play effectively with heavy hearts? Will this be a reminder to Ray Lewis of his less than glorious past (driven crazy by the endless thumping of the tell-tale heart)? Will Joe Flacco be able to set aside his recent troubles and play well or will he be responsible for the Fall of the House of Usher….err the House of Bischiotti?

The Ravens have played the Pats well in the past, but the Patriots seem to be on a mission this year. Flacco has not progressed during his time in the league and the team has yet to find receivers to pick up the slack.

In the end, I think the tone of his game will be set early. The Pats will either come out and dominate from the start (see: last week) or they will struggle and let the visitors stay close the whole game. This is one game where the halftime pick must be the same as the full game.

I think the Patriots dominate the Ravens like Bill Belichick attacking the sleeves of a hoodie. Take the Pats in both the first half and for the whole game.

In the end, like the Poe Toaster, the Ravens shall be nevermore.

NY Giants @ Forty-Niners

Halftime: Forty-Niners (-.5)

Full Game: Forty-Niners (-2.5)

An NFC Championship game played in Candlestick Park on the edge of the San Francisco bay. It is enough to make an old heart warm with nostalgia. Or angina from all that wine and cheese. However this game is so opposite of games we have seen in the past.

Eli Manning is now the quarterback of a high powered passing attack. Yes, this man.

The Forty-Niners, once the underground laboratory for the mad-scientist of the West Coast offense revolution, relies on powerful defense and staunch running game to win.

When these teams met in the late 80’s it was the Giants running the ball and using a powerful defense, with a freak at linebacker, to slow down the meticulous 49er offense. Now the gameplans are reversed.

In the end, the Niners have already faced a better offense and prevailed. The Giants surprised a rusty, out-of-rhythm Packers offense last week that hadn’t played in nearly a month. The Niners shut down an offense that had scored 45 the week before.

A home field advantage of fans desperate for a return to championship performance brings out the best of the Niners in this one. The defense slows the Giants offense and the 49er offense slowly grinds down the Giants defense.

Take the Giants in the first half (say one long Victor Cruz touchdown, puts them in the front or keeps it tied). But the Niners find a way after halftime, Vernon Davis gashes the Giants secondary and the 49ers win, cover and head back to the Super Bowl.

In a battle for the ages, the Super Bowl pits the closest thing to a dynasty we have seen this millennium against the franchise that defined the word dynasty in the 80s.

You know, Bill, there’s one thing I learned in all my years. Sometimes you just gotta say, “What the f**k…”

- Joel Goodson, Risky Business

Sunday I completed a personally remarkable WildCard weekend.

My first half and full game spread picks completed the weekend a remarkable 7 of 8 – so impressive that my days of just giving you this type of knowledge for free is about its end. I mean Harvard ain’t free – am I right?

Of course when I become a Tout I will have to start using ALL CAPS a lot more often and will have to smother the lawyer living in my gut that says to not use words like GUARANTEE.  However, with the amount of dip I have eaten in the last couple of weeks, even if I don’t smother him he will be dead of heart disease before the Super Bowl.

Naturally my one loss came at the hands at my boys in blue, when they dared to take a lead into halftime against the Steelers. The Broncos dominated – then gave away – then shocked the world in beating a vastly overrated Steeler team on Sunday afternoon. Was it really an upset? The Steelers were decimated by injuries – no Mendenhall or Pouncey, Big Ben down to only one good rapin’ leg –  and a defense that is starting to look more like all reputation, no substance. Without Ryan Clark and his defensive Team MVP cell structure, the Steelers pass defense was almost Vikings-esque and that isn’t good.  

SIDEBAR: Personal note to Troy Polamalu: I mean, seriously? You make Pro Bowls, you get shampoo commercials, and the never-ending affection of football writers and then you become the personal punching bag of Tim Tebow and Demaryius Thomas? That’s an embarrassment. The only safety play I have ever seen more pathetic than your play on Sunday was when Dan Orlovsky ran out the back of the end zone. You should cut off all of your hair as penance. Or retire. Whatever.

But I’m not here to talk about the past. Let’s move on. To the Divisional Playoffs. I am riding an incredible picking streak. The Broncos are playing a full 2 weeks after anyone expected them to. At this point, we are all playing with house money, so in the immortal words of Joel Goodson I just say:

What the f**k.

Saturday

New Orleans @ San Francisco

First Half: New Orleans (-3)

Full Game: New Orleans (-3.5)

One team is the NFL’s own Air Show – an on-going series of aerial acrobatics by a group of interchangeable parts.

The other team is the earth-moving machine that the guys in Ocean’s Thirteen used to dig underneath the casino – slow, methodical, barely making noise yet constantly moving forward and seemingly unstoppable as it slowly crushes all in front of it.

Can the Saints’ aerial bombardment “shock and awe” the Niners into submission? Will the Niners stout, quick defense disrupt the Saints show and turn into one of those European Air Show disasters?

Playing the Niners presents 2 major challenges to the Saints – first the Niners defenders aren’t like the Lions. They are built for speed. Aldon Smith. Navarro Bowman. Patrick Willis. They all have speed.

Secondly, as the old saying that I just made up goes: you can take the team out of the dome, but you can’t take the dome out of the team. Even with the forecasted pleasant bay area weather, the Saints will face strange winds, thick, plush grass and cool, heavy air. None of those are things they see in the SuperDome – except maybe the heavy air caused by 75,000 fans stuffed with gumbo and boudin.

Between the Saints being a step slow and the speed of the Niners defense, I think the machine will be slightly off – like when your computer is running yet another Microsoft update in the background and every. Thing. It. Does. Goes. Very. Slowly.

On the other side of the ball, the Niners can minimize the risk associated with the phrase ‘starting playoff quarterback Alex Smith’ by pounding the ball. The Saints aren’t built on defense for a pounding ground game. As Alabama proved last weekend in their National Semifinal defeat of Oklahoma State, a dominant defense grounding a high flying offense and a meticulous power offense that limits mistakes can win.

What’s that?…College doesn’t have a playoff?… So we have no idea if Alabama could shut down OSU’s offense?…I don’t understand…The country’s 2^nd most popular sport can’t identify a definitive champion? …HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE?

Anyway – back to a sport that crowns a true champion. The Saints may move the ball in the first half and score a touchdown or two before the Niners adjust and throw a wrench in the machine so take the Saints and give the points in the first half.

In the second half, like a horror movie murderer that never runs but always catches the running teen girl in the tight fitting tank top, the Niners slowly ground down the Saints defense and clog their offense. The Niners not only cover the full game spread but win out-right.

Denver @ New England

First Half: New England (-7)

Full Game: New England (-13.5)

The Broncos are on a crusade.

Oh, yes – there is the “Drive to the Super Bowl” and whatnot but that isn’t what this team is about. The whole ‘glories on Earth’ thing is beneath them. They aren’t after trophies.

They are after souls.

At the end of the 1997-1998 season, the Broncos entered the playoffs as a wildcard and embarked on the ‘Revenge’ Tour as each week featured a team that they felt they owed. The Jaguars (wildcard) had beaten them in the previous year’s playoffs. The Chiefs (divisional) and Steelers (AFC championship) had beaten the Broncos during the regular season and the Packers (Super Bowl) were defending champs.

The 1997 Broncos were a Quentin Tarantino character without even realizing it.

This year’s Bronco team isn’t out to revenge past defeats. Rather they have taken on their leader’s persona and are out to vanquish evil doers. The Broncos aren’t beating football teams, they’re cleansing a game’s morals. One Commandment at a time.

Last week, was the defeat of a rapist.

Allegedly.

Next comes a cheat and philanderer.

Allegedly.

And then, were the Broncos to defeat the Patriots and face the Ravens (favored over the Texans), they would face thieves (that stole a team from the people of Cleveland) and a murderer (<cough>Ray Lewis<cough>).

Allegedly.

In three short weeks, the Broncos can cleanse these playoffs of the sinners.

They can exorcise the demons. This house will be clear.

But can good truly triumph over evil again? The odds are long. But they were also long against a Jewish carpenter once, and raise your hand if you just got home from worshipping Jupiter and Juno.

The Broncos have 2 things going for them (beyond the existential power of the Heavens). First Tebow requires poor secondary play to throw the ball well – he needs receivers with some space thanks to less than Brady-esque confidence and accuracy (see: Steelers and Vikings games). Thankfully, the Patriots have a pass defense as bad as anyone in the NFL.

Secondly, while the Patriots did dominate the Broncos a few weeks ago, they dominated because of Broncos mistakes. Three awful turnovers before half turned a lead into a deficit – and these Broncos are as likely to stage a large comeback as they are to make it rain at The Gold Club.

History has also shown that while the Patriots may be consistently strong, their Achilles heel has been playoff re-matches at home (last year vs. Jets and 2 years ago vs. Ravens).

I am tempted to say take the Patriots in the first half, but I think at best, they get a push with the 7 point spread.

It is just too many points. Take the Broncos for the first half and full game and feel the warmth and strength that comes with being on the side of the just.

We have reached the point in the season where all football fans fall into one of four categories.

The first group is the Confetti Orderers; fans whose teams look so strong that they can’t help but envision their team lifting a trophy while they reign down confetti on the heads of their friends. However, given the large percentage of these people that live in Wisconsin, they might want to also start envisioning a daily stroll around the block so that they don’t die of a heart attack from too many brats and beers before that moment gets here.

The second group are the Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dahs; fans of teams that came into season with low expectations but have shown just enough promise that even if they aren’t championship caliber this season, they are competitive, fun and promise such a bright future that the fans feel like there are cartoon birds whistling around their heads all the time. These fans celebrate wins and shrug off losses – but always keep a grin on their face that makes them look like they just spent the night with Sophia Vergara.

I hate these people.

The third group are the Depressed Fishermen; fans of teams that have already failed and show little sign of improvement. These are the people that will constantly point to a close loss as the highlight of the season – the ‘one that got away’. Football fans, they still want to watch the season but every win by a rival or discussion of a loss by their team is like an X-acto knife to the shoulder.

If you can’t tell, this is where I sit. I will spend the rest of the year talking about the FSU’s loss to Oklahoma and how it changed the entire season and the miracle Tebow comeback against the Chargers that fell one mad scramble short of victory.

The Final Group are the Walking Dead; fans of teams so awful and depressing they have already given up on the season and spent more time last weekend thinking about Kim Kardashian’s wedding than football.

No matter which group you fall in as a fan though, you are still better off than another group about to get several new members: the Ex-Coaches. No, not a gang of bank robbers wearing rubber masks of Rich Rodriguez, Jim Tressell, Ralph Friedgen and Eric Mangini, but rather coaches that have been fired for having an underperforming team. Now is the time of year when this party grows by a few new members as owners and A.D.s get fed up with poor performance and decide now is time to make a change.

In honor of this soon-to-be-larger group, that is our theme for this week’s THH. Each match-up consists of 2 teams formerly coached the same person. Our question: which team would that ex-coach cheer for?

College:

Colorado vs. Washington (Rick Neuheisel)

I like to think when Rick Neuheisel left CU to take the job at UW he re-created one of my favorite movie scenes:

“I came to Washington for the sunshine.”

“But Rick, it rains here 9 months of the year.”

“I was mis-informed.”

Instead he left CU for the money and access to west coast players. Rick was fired from UW over money as well; in particular, his willingness to bet large amounts of it on a March Madness bracket. Credit where it is due though, Rick seems like the type of guy that picks lots of upsets – I bet he had a 10 seed in the Final Four. After that acrimonious exit, I think Rick is cheering on CU this weekend. Like when Steve Guttenberg left the Police Academy series, neither has ever been the same without the other.

Miami vs. UNC (Butch Davis)

When Davis was fired from UNC a couple months ago, I tweeted several times about how no coach has gotten a greater reputation from fewer results than Davis. He helped resurrect Miami after probation but after he left UM, Larry Coker went to 2 straight national title games – and he might have been dead for part of the second season. Davis went to Cleveland and proceeded to almost have a winning record. At UNC he had more talent than nearly team in the country (based on the NFL draft) and never did better than lose 4 games. In short, he turned around bad teams and made them mediocre, sort of like Ashton Kutcher’s impact on sitcoms. Since the U was where Davis first gained a reputation and its continued mediocrity makes him look retroactively better I think he cheers for them on Saturday.

NFL

San Francisco vs. Detroit (Steve Mariucci)

Until Jim Harbaugh commuted up the peninsula from Stanford and turned the Niners from annual underachievers into a legitimate force, Mariucci was the last successful coach at Candlestick Park; taking the Niners to the playoffs four times. In Detroit, his greatest accomplishment was putting Tom Izzo in the stands for the inevitable weekly discussion of the two being best friends. Because I can’t imagine anyone picking Detroit over San Francisco for any reason, I say Mooch is cheering on the Niners.

Dallas vs New England (Bill Parcells)

Bill Parcells might be the least likable but inordinately successful coach in football not named Nick Saban. While he never had the success with the Pats and Cowboys that he enjoyed with the Giants, he did take the Pats to the Super Bowl. He also got the Cowboys to the playoffs with Quincy Carter and Tony Romo at quarterback which is almost more improbable than Boise State becoming a college football power.

What Parcells does not get enough credit for is his pioneering work in the practice of temporary retirements. He ‘retired’ from the Giants, Patriots, Jets and Cowboys but kept returning to coaching. In this way, he really paved the way for the Favre circus of the last several years, which in my mind should be enough to keep him out of the Hall of Fame.

It says something that Parcells finally retired for good after less than a season of coaching Tony Romo and the first of Romo’s many pressure moment choke jobs when he muffed a hold for a field goal and lost to Seattle in the playoffs. If it hadn’t been for Romo, we might have another 5 years of Parcells unretiring every off-season. While we should cheer Romo for that, I have to imagine someone with the ego that Parcells does, misses the spotlight and blames Romo for it. For that reason he will cheer on the Pats this week.

With the first week of football I should be feeling a lot of emotions: excitement, joy, contentment, hunger.

Instead I feel shame.

For the first time in the 4 plus years of writing for this site, a football weekend went by without a Hierarchy of Hate to guide how you should direct your cheering efforts. I have no excuse. I simply forgot. Time got away from me. I had other things to write about. The cat ate my network connection.

Whatever. There are no legitimate excuses. I failed you. I imagine someone sitting on their couch with a Go Ducks t-shirt and Geaux Tigers sign, rapidly refreshing the site, unsure of which to wave on Saturday night, yearning to know how the number of coffee shops in Baton Rouge and Eugene compare and thus who to pull for.

All I can offer at this point is my humble apologies. And a promise.

To the fans and everybody in profootballblogger Nation, I’m sorry. I’m extremely sorry. We were hoping for an undefeated season. That was my goal, something we have never done here. I promise you one thing, a lot of good will come out of this. You will never see any blogger in the entire country write as hard as I will write the rest of the season. You will never see someone push the rest of the THH team as hard as I will push everybody the rest of the season. You will never see a team write harder than we will the rest of the season.God Bless.

On to this week’s inaugural 2011 picks.

We decided to ring in the 2011 season we would go back to the beginning.

Not the beginning of THH. The beginnings of each team.

Unfortunately Turner and the Shadow can’t join us this week as they both had to have neck surgery today with an eye toward being back in the game before the end of the seas….what’s that? Oh, that was Peyton Manning? Then, yeah they are just both slackers.

I apparently have a lot of work to do to fulfill that promise.

College: Which university namesake would you most want to watch a game with?

Stanford vs Duke

SD: Leland Stanford was a railroad tycoon and politician. The Duke family had grown wealthy by growing tobacco and gave so much money to a local school it was renamed after them. I have had many goals in life (win an Olympic gold medal, win a fishing tournament, live in a houseboat behind McCovey Cove) but one of them is to be referred to as a Tycoon. As a history/business geek I have read several books about the early 1900’s when the country was run by a small band of rich, ruthless men who were always referred to as tycoons. It is such a perfect descriptor. With six simple letters you can call someone a rich, powerful asshole. That is efficiency. I may not have wanted to work for old Leland back in the day but give me a tycoon over tobacco barons any day.

Wofford vs Clemson

SD: Wofford is named after Reverend Benjamin Wofford a local Methodist Minister. Thomas Clemson married the daughter of former Vice President John Calhoun and inherited the land on which Clemson now stands from the Calhoun family. So Wofford was a local reverend who wanted to do good for his neighborhood while Clemson was a guy who lived in Paris while young, married into a rich, powerful family, out-lived the entire family, completely eclipsed that family in the country’s shared memory and then donated their land to start the school with the 2^nd best looking co-eds in the ACC. This contest is more one-sided than the game will be. Thomas Clemson might be my new hero in life.

NFL: Which mascot do you think best represents its hometown city?

Steelers vs Ravens

SD: The Steelers are obviously named for the local steel industry which means if they wanted to be truly authentic, they would be in the process of relocating to Guangzhou, China. On the contrary, the Ravens are a reference to the famous story written by Baltimore native Edgar Allan Poe. Of course, if a Raven were seen in Baltimore today, it would be shot by one of the cities criminals popularized by the TV show The Wire. Or one of the criminals that plays football for the local team. Either way, the bird would be dead and Jason Whitlock would spend a 1,000 words telling us why the dead bird is a metaphor for The Wire being more important than any book ever written. Whatever Jason. I still like books. Especially, in comparison to molten metal. Go Ravens.

Seahawks vs 49ers

The 49ers are named for the gold miners that swarmed northern California after a mother lode was discovered in 1849. The Seahawks are named after…hawks…that…like…live…near the sea…or something. Frankly, I spent the majority of 3 years in Seattle and never saw anything remotely resembling a sea hawk. Other than the homeless junkie that lived on the stairs near my hotel that bore a striking resemblance to Charlie Whitehurst. If the Seattle football team wants to name themselves after a fictional animal maybe they could have picked a fiercer animal. Like a Griffin. Or a Liger. Or a Unicorn. At least we have historical proof of the 49ers existence. And I bet some of them even became gold tycoons. Awesome. Go Niners.

Draft week is finally here; real, concrete news out of the NFL that is more about players than lawyers.

I know a bunch of lawyers. The last thing I want is lawyers to be the key players in my sports soap operas.

Strangely it is also the week in which NFL teams become most like politicians – you know – former lawyers that decided to ‘give back’ (i.e. – the power of running a firm full of other lawyers wasn’t enough for their massive egos). No matter what head-scratching moves a team makes in or leading up to the draft, the team will act like they just chose the right goblet from the Grail Knight.

On draft day, Cam Cameron acted like he sincerely believed one-legged Tim Ginn was the missing piece from a Dolphin Super Bowl run.

On draft day, the Forty-Niners convinced themselves Alex Smith was the heir apparent to Steve Young, rather than Jim Druckenmiller.

Draft day, where optimism really does spring eternal.

Of course, that isn’t the case. If history has taught us anything, it is that most of these high draft picks can at best aspire to an NFL career long enough to qualify them for a pension (assuming the NFLPA gets a pension in the coming labor agreement).

But that won’t stop each team from making the heartfelt case that the newest member of the organization will be the one hoisting the Lombardi trophy.

But which players will fail to meet those lofty expectations? I’m so excited for the draft I flew to Charlotte tonight to get the low-down on the first overall pick right from the source. Maybe its a sign, maybe it isn’t, but on the way in from the airport I saw a construction site at least 2 blocks long with a sign reading ‘Future Home of Cecil Newton’s Church That He Really Did Pay For All by Himself’.

Let’s go team by team through the first round and identify the players they should draft. I won’t pretend that I know what these teams will actually do, and have little evidence of teams following my advice (other than my epic guidance for the Jets to draft Mark Sanchez two years ago) but that doesn’t stop me from telling them what they should do.

And by ‘should do’ I mean ‘the draft pick that I think would be most fun for them to take’ not ‘will definitely make them better’.

#1 – Panthers – General consensus is that Cam Newton will be drafted by the Panthers. And who am I to argue. Jimmy Clausen has gotten his last two coaches fired, would you want him to be your franchise QB? Me neither. Some teams are scared off by Newton’s off-field transgressions (felonies, 3 schools in 3 years, transparent auctioning of his skills to the highest bidder), but I think Carolina is uniquely suited to ignore this. Their home state school is led by Butch Davis who has run a clean program once in his coaching career, when he coached the Browns, and we know how that turned out (24-34 record). If willing to hire a perennial cheat like Davis, I would imagine most North Carolinians would almost look with pride at Newton using the transfer payments he received to attend Auburn to help repair his father’s church.

#2 – Broncos – Marcel Dareus fits a glaring need for the Broncos along their defensive line. A glaring need that has been present for so long, it is almost becoming it’s own tradition unlike any other. Beside adding some size and skill to the  Broncos front line, I also like imagining John Fox (who isn’t the youngest coach in the league) and John Elway (who took his fair share of hits to the helmet) trying to keep Marcel Dareus and Darcel McBath straight.

#3 – Bills – You would think that as bad as the Bills have been for years, they would look for a flashy player – a quarterback or receiver to drum up interest among their bi-country fan base. However, they are smart and recognize a team should build from within. Offensive Line and defensive front seven. The Bills are so smart they have have a Harvard man under center! That is why they will grab potential superstar linebacker Von Miller from Texas A&M. Miller could be the best linebacker they have had since Cornelius Bennett played. A player taken when the Bills were led by another Harvard man, Marv Levy. See, with all these Ivy leaguers, the Bills are smart. They aren’t any good at football, but they sure are smart.  

#4 – Bengals – With both Chad Ochocinco Johnson Washedupo and Terrell Owens most likely on their way out of Cincy as soon as the Bengals are allowed to release them, it is important to get Jordan Palmer some help. You can’t go wrong with Julio Jones who looks like he has all the skills to be a star. This is such an obvious pick, that I hear VH1 has already contacted Julio about his own TV series.  I like to think the show is about Julio helping kids that get picked on at the playground to learn to stand up to bullies. Then they can call it ‘Me and Julio Down By the Schoolyard’.  

#5 – Cardinals – The Cardinals went from perennial Super Bowl contenders to the bottom of the worst division in the NFL when Kurt Warner decided he would rather dance on primetime than play for them. After a season of using quarterbacks that wouldn’t be hired to be Adam Sandler’s stunt double in The Longest Yard, the Cardinals need to grab Blaine Gabbert. He is a lock. What could go wrong with the Cardinals drafting a tall, immoble, white quarterback whose last name ends in ‘rt’?

#6 – Browns – AJ Green, the ridiculously talented wide out from Georgia fills a big hole for the Browns. Let’s just hope the Browns have better luck with him than the last WR they drafted known for his one-handed catches in college. Once Braylon Edwards got to Cleveland the only thing he could catch was pity and scorn from LeBron’s hangers-ons.

#7 – Forty-Niners – Unwilling to accept that the Alex Smith era is need of euthanization, the Forty-Niners continue to try and improve their defense to off-set Smith. To put some more skill in front of all-world linebacker Patrick Willis, the Niners should grab Robert Quinn. Sure, he didn’t play last season after taking illegal benefits from agents, but let’s face it, the Forty-Niners haven’t played for most of this decade. Call it a wash.

#8 – Titans – Still looking to replace Albert Haynesworth’s pass rush that jumped at Dan Snyder’s millions years ago, the Titans should reach for Cameron Jordan. Not only will he give them a edge pass rusher, but could open up a whole new population of potential season ticket holders, when frat boys from all over the south buy game tickets after hearing the Titans have acquired Jordan, assuming he is a former sorority girl that has joined the Titans cheerleading squad.  

#9 – Cowboys – There are three things Jerry Jones loves in this world. Meddling with his football team, bringing in players with questionable character and his alma mater Arkansas Razorbacks. I give you the perfect storm of Jones’ incompetence: Ryan Mallett.

#10 – Redskins – The Redskins need help everywhere except quarterback where Rex Grossmann looks to be a perennial Pro Bowler. I see them going for defense – specifically Prince Amukamara. As every Bronco fan remembers, Mike Shanahan has a fetish for drafting cornerbacks. Also, I think of this as tossing a bone to the idiot Birther movement. Just think of the jokes they can make with a guy whose name sounds like African royalty in the same city as President Obama. Those jokes would probably be hilarious. At least to other people dumb enough to be birthers.

#11 – Texans – In the mistaken belief that their offense isn’t a problem, the Texans should look to add more playmakers on defense so this can be the year they finally live up to their annual sleeper contender status. Justin Houston, a linebacker out of Georgia is the perfect fit. 6’3”, 270 pounds with a 4.6 40-yard dash. Plus his last name is Houston! And coming from Georgia he is accustomed to his team failing to meet overblown pre-season expectations.

#12 – Vikings – It looks like it might finally be the end of the Favre era. Let’s all commemorate the falling of an American hero, by pouring our Vicodin out on the curb. Needing a replacement for Favre, the Vikings should turn to Andy Dalton. Sure, there are some concerns his red hair may prevent him from succeeding in the pros, but with the Vikings playing in a dome and Minnesota’s long winters at least we won’t have to worry about Dalton failing because of the sun’s debilitating effects on his fair skin.

#13 – Lions – After just 3 or 4 games, the injury bug impacted Jahvid Best’s rookie campaign for the Lions last year and resurrected concerns about him from college that he can’t stay healthy. If Matt Millen were still in charge he would just go draft Ryan Williams this year despite taking a running back last year. Millen already had experience blowing a draft pick on an overrated Va Tech running back when he took Kevin Jones in 2004. Sigh, I miss Matt Millen.

#14 – Rams – New Rams owner Stan Kroenke wants to make a big splash with his first draft. He wants to make the big-name pick that will draw attention back from the Cardinals and Albert Pujols’ on-going contract drama. Most importantly he wants to help 2^nd year quarterback Sam Bradford. What name makes the most sense to draw excitement to the Rams? If I have said it once, I have said it never, nothing gets fans excited like an offensive lineman from Wisconsin. Gabe Carimi is just the man to get the City by the Arch talking.

#15 – Dolphins – The Dolphins just can’t trust injury-prone Ronnie Brown or mellow-dude Ricky Williams to handle the running game. It is time to start finding young legs to take some of the load. Bruising, consistent Mark Ingram would be the perfect answer but I can’t be the only one thinking that giving Mark Ingram Senior an excuse to visit Miami is a bad idea if we want to win the War On Drugs.

#16 – Jaguars – After years of drafting bustastic wide receivers in the first round, the Jaguars are finally starting to build their defense so that they can still win games, while their perennially mediocre offense sputters along and their fan base continues to shrink. To help both problems, the Jags can draft Jimmy Smith out of CU. Not only will he solidify the Jags’ secondary, but Jags fans can just recycle their old wide receiver Jimmy Smith jerseys and reminisce about the good old days when they were relevant.

We will back to finish out the rest of the first round later this week.

As we reach the One-Month-Warning to the NFL Draft, the one oasis in an NFL news world that is starting to look as desolate as the desert planet Tatooine, I think it is time to pay homage to one of my favorite annual traditions being played out right before our eyes.

The overrating of a player at a marquee position.

Every year, it seems to happen. When there seems to be no clear cut, can’t-miss prospect at one of the glamour positions in the NFL, the experts slowly hype some formally middling player until a team drafts him in the top five and are still lamenting that decision years later.

I don’t necessarily mean busts like Tony Mandarich or Ryan Leaf, those players were long held up as a top prospect and only due to extenuating circumstances (Mandarich – reliance on the Roger Clemens training routine, Leaf – being bat-sh*t crazy) kept them from achieving.

I am talking about players that were never truly good enough to be drafted as high as they were but for whatever reason in the long gap between the completion of their college careers and the draft, the analysts and experts brainwashed NFL brass into taking them. They aren’t usually as bustastic as a Mandarich or Leaf. They usually end up with mediocre careers but never reach the stardom they should given their lofty draft positions.

The poster-child for this phenomenon is Alex Smith. Drafted #1 overall by the Forty-Niners in 2005, the former Utah Ute quarterback has spent his entire career either injured or being excused for mediocre play because of constant turn-over  in his offensive coaching staff. All fine reasons for not being a very good quarterback but missing the biggest one.

Smith was never that good to begin with.

A one-year wonder at Utah, who parlayed big stats from using Urban Meyer’s spread offense in the unathletic Mountain West, Smith slowly rose to be the consensus number one pick for one simple reason: the real #1 pick abdicated his spot by returning to school. Matt Leinart was destined to be that Forty-Niner pick but instead returned to school, lost the national title game, was drafted by the Cardinals and never given a chance to prove that he too could be a thoroughly mediocre pro quarterback.

Once Leinart returned to school, the Forty-Niners, already confiedent that none of the average quarterbacks already on the roster could be their quarterback for a season, convinced themselves over time that Alex Smith could become their franchise.

They still regret that decision.

(SIDEBAR: While picking Smith was clearly a mistake, take another look at that 2005 draft. How bad is the rest of the top ten? Injuries, head cases and busts. In the entire first round there are about 5 players that you would want on your team today, just six years later. Of course, it is just salt on the wound of Forty-Niner nation that one of those guys is another quarterback. From the Bay Area. Who just won the Super Bowl MVP. But setting that epic Matt Millen-esque error aside, there aren’t a lot of other players that could be argued who should have gone #1 overall.

For the record, at the time I was arguing for the Niners to draft Braylon Edwards. Yes, this was before I would draft him 3 straight times in fantasy while cursing his name approximately 163 times; he would drop 73% of passes thrown his way during a season (approximate); start a feud with LeBron’s posse (pre-Decision; life is all timing folks) and become so hated in Cleveland he got traded to the Jets where he became an OK receiver and went to 2 straight AFC Championship games. Not a Jerry Rice-esque resume, but certainly more entertaining than Smith’s. But I digress.)

This year, we get to play out the Smith debacle all over again in the form of Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert.

When Todd McShay created his first mock draft all the way back in November, he didn’t have Gabbert in the first round at all. By January, Gabbert was up to a mid-first rounder.

In the latest mock drafts, McShay has him at #3. Mel Kiper’s hair has him #1 overall.

What has changed since that first mock draft? Gabbert has played four games in which he threw for 4 touchdowns (rushing for 3 more) and throwing 5 interceptions against powerhouses like Kansas State, Kansas and Iowa State (plus a Bowl game versus Iowa). Not exactly the performance that you would expect to propel a player from 2^nd round to 1^st overall.

Even after the season, Gabbert continued to climb – in 4 short months (while not playing a single game!) – Gabbert has risen to the top of the draft charts and if not taken with the overall #1 pick, will be almost assuredly the first quarterback off the board in the top five picks. Why has Gabbert risen? Simply, because every other quarterback has taken a step back and bad teams almost inevitably think that they should draft a quarterback if at the top of the draft.

Andrew Luck didn’t declare for the draft though he would have definitely been the #1 overall pick (a Pac-10 quarterback, coming off an outstanding year that included a high Heisman place and BCS win? Why does that remind me of someone else pertinent to this conversation…).

Ryan Mallet has spent the off-season plummeting down draft boards due to off-field concerns and issues. Personally, I think a last name that sounds suspiciously like Mullet is hurting him with certain teams as well but I haven’t been able to confirm that with my sources.  

Cam Newton ping pongs between freaking out NFL teams with attitude red-flags (claiming to be Icon/Entertainer; his feigned ignorance of his dad’s utilizing Sotheby’s to identify his 2^nd college; being the only criminal on the UF football team that Urban Meyer ever actually disciplined) and making them swoon with his athletic freakiness. For the record, it seems obvious to me that Cam is destined to basically follow the exact career path of Vince Young. Including getting a coach fired and having police called to a domestic incident.

That leaves Gabbert. A pro-style quarterback. With good size and off-season workouts and few red flags. Don’t worry about his actual performance on the field last fall failing to overly impress. He is tall and can throw hard in a t-shirt and shorts.

While Gabbert may be the best QB in the draft, that doesn’t mean he should go in the top five, that is just NFL thinking. I need a quarterback. He is the best around. I will take him. But that doesn’t answer the question: are you better off taking a player at a position of lesser need who has a better chance to be an outstanding player than taking a decent player at a position of need?

In most cases I would say no, but quarterback is different. Especially in the top five. This is the face of the franchise. The leader at the most important position. Given the investment spent on a first overall pick, are the Panthers that convinced Gabbert will be better than Jimmy Clausen who they drafted last year? Enough to invest $50million in him?

The Forty-Niners had a stable of Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey and Cody Pickett. Two of those guys were still young in 2004. Wouldn’t it have made more sense to give one of these guys a year to progress and then take your pick of a better 2005 quarterback class (Leinart, Young, Cutler) than to overreach and overspend on Smith?

Most likely some team will make the exact same mistake this year.

Those who don’t learn from the past, are destined to repeat it.