Last year, in the inaugural ‘Doubling Down’ series, I had a shockingly successful run in picking both halftime and full time playoff games against the spread.  A smarter man than I would go out on top. Call it a fun experiment and move on with my life to things I am more qualified to write about. Whatever that may be. 

But not me. A few weeks ago I sat a blackjack table in Mandalay Bay until about 1 in the morning. I had been drinking for about 14 hours. I could barely see, let alone think. Yet, the gambling gods had shown favor on me and I was doing pretty well. Until I wasn’t. And when a smarter man would go to bed to save his money to bet on NFL the next morning, I stayed.

And lost it all.

So that is what this is. It is my drunk 1 am visit to a blackjack table. Here if I have a bad week I lose my reputation as an NFL Sharp rather than a pocket full of cash. But, thankfully my reputation is smaller than my bankroll.

So, with nothing at stake beside my good name, let’s dive in and pick each Wild Card game. Let’s start with the Saturday games.

Houston vs. Cincinnati****

Halftime: Houston (-2)

Full Game: Houston (-3)

Am I really picking T.J. Yates to win a playoff game and cover a spread? Yes. Yes I am. The easy argument would be to say I don’t trust Andy Dalton, a rookie QB, on the road against a stout Texans defense; that a healthy Andre Johnson and Arian Foster can take the pressure off TJ. But there is another more important factor in picking the Texans: revenge.

Did you see the seats that the Bengals gave TJ’s parents at Yates’ first start in Cincinnati? That was disrespect if I have ever seen it. TJ is coming out for blood this week. There is no greater motivation then defending the honor of your mother. And make no mistake – by putting Mr. and Mrs. Yates in seats marginally closer to Dayton than to the field, the Bengals essentially pulled out a glove and slapped TJ across the face. IT IS ON. And TJ is bringing Brian Cushing and his ‘supplements’ with him.

In the name of Mrs. Yates, I think the Texans come out strong and roll, give the points at half and across the full game and you too can spend these 3 hours laughing, smiling and reminiscing about the early 1990’s Broncos teams right along with Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips as the Texans roll.

****HUGE ASTERISK: If Yates is truly hurt and Jake Delhomme plays a prominent role in this game, then ignore all of the above and make a run for the hills like an asteroid is going to hit the ocean over the weekend.

New Orleans vs. Detroit

Halftime: New Orleans (-6.5)

Full Game: New Orleans (-11)

Drew Brees pretty much single-handedly won me my fantasy league this year. It is the 2^nd year in a row I have won this league, which means 1 of 2 things:

1 – as the league is full of lawyers, law school really isn’t as difficult as non-lawyers think it is

or

2 – I am about 9 months away from taking a job away from Mathew Berry and forcing him to try and make a living by writing Crocodile Dundee 4: Is Paul Hogan Is Still Alive?

Basically regardless of the outcome here, Brees has already had a pretty successful 2011 season. At least for me.

As for this game, which is significantly less meaningful than my championship game a couple weeks ago (but whatever), I can’t turn my back on what Bress has done for me. I am loyal like that.

Over the course of 60 minutes, I expect the Lions to make too many mistakes and the unstoppable Mardi Gras float that is the Saints offense to run the Lions over like a little kid who got too greedy chasing down beads dropped in the street.

With the freakiest receiver this side of Justin Blackmon, a solid QB (when healthy) in Matthew Stafford and a solid defensive line (when not suspended) I expect the Lions can keep it close for awhile.

Until the clock strikes midnight and Stafford gets up from a tackle holding his arm and grimacing. Or a Boy Named Suh goes all Ron Artest and tries to climb into the stands and rip the umbrella from Tom Benson’s cold, dead hands (after he rips his throat out – Roadhouse style – obviously).

In short, the Lions, much like their coach, are about as disciplined and mature as the cast of Real World at 3 am. There will be an implosion and it will be ugly.

Take the Lions in the first half – hope for a 14-10, 17-14 or 21-17 Saints lead and then hide the women and children, take the Saints full game with the points, pop a cold beer and wait for the implosion.

Early fall is my favorite time of year. The air has cooled and football permeates everything. Yet, when you really think about fall, much of what we love about it is defined by what it isn’t. It isn’t the scorching hot days of summer and it isn’t the cold, desolate winter. It is the in-between. Even the football season is in-between. Football’s regular season decides little. It is the pre-amble to the playoffs and bowl season where championships are won.  

Yet this year, a dark cloud hangs over my pumpkin carving, leaf raking happiness. I upgraded this off-season to a full Nuggets season ticket package just in time to have no games.  David Stern and Billy Hunter (as well as, apparently Kevin Garnett) are conspiring to ruin my favorite time of year, and therefore my entire year.

After negotiations between the NBA and players ended as abruptly as The Sopranos last night, we now face an entire winter with no NBA and it feels like my fall has been taken from me as well. My football teams are already done for the season. I should be a week away from spending my every night consoling myself by watching the NBA, but instead I will have to either talk myself into becoming a hockey fan, grow a mullet and start drinking Molson or commit myself to college basketball more fully than the players that actually play college basketball.

I haven’t spent enough time analyzing the NBA issues to decide who is right and who is wrong – mostly I suspect both sides are wrong. I understand that teams are losing money thanks to declining attendance and rising player costs but I find it hard to feel sympathy for successful businessmen that are asking for someone else to regulate how much they pay players because they can’t trust themselves. How did you make your billions not understanding the concept of cost/benefit? The billionaires on Wall Street are desperately fighting any attempt at regulating their reckless activities that can literally wipe out entire firms and the country’s economy. While at the same time billionaire NBA owners want more regulations so they can show a profit?

On the flip side, I have little sympathy for players that refuse to look at the broader picture and understand that to keep the league running successfully they may have to take a pay cut that doesn’t allow them that 3^rd Maybach they want.  The U.S. auto workers also refused to negotiate reduced payroll costs with automakers that had been generous when times were good. Those automakers instead of losing money, shipped those jobs overseas. Now, rather than making 80% of what they were making before when they had negotiated entirely too high salaries, the auto workers make nothing because there are no more jobs.

There is no perfect solution. At the end of the day, neither side will be happy with a resolution. But isn’t that the point of a negotiation?

NBA players already have their millions. Owners that were losing money certainly are in no rush to return to a money-losing venture. In the end, the only losers are the fans.

This looks like it is going to be a protracted battle. There is no end in sight. Fans, like me, are sad now, but over the course of the coming months, as with any other loss, we will progress through the stages of grieving until we ultimately reach acceptance.

And maybe, just maybe when the children in these negotiations grow up, become adults and settle this dispute they will learn the hard truth neither side wants to hear.

They need fans a lot more than fans need them.  

Shadow: Last week I worked a 30 hour ‘day’ and I still think I got off easier than being in beautiful (and by beautiful I mean ugly) Utica, NY onsite with our newest client.  Turner had that privilege, and we will be lucky if he is ever the same again.  He popped into work for a few minutes today and by the looks of his short locks…he either got a haircut or pulled out all his hair while the clients harangued him about the system he so glowingly sold them at Xmas time last year.  I am heading to California this weekend, so may miss the debut of Tebow Time, and am counting down the days until Vegas and the Revenge of the THH Parlay.  I really like SD’s theme this week…since I am such a devoted basketball disciple.

Since our basketball plates are going to be sparse this winter, we are incorporating it into THH this week.

In each match-up, which team would you cheer on if this were a basketball game, rather than football game?

College:

Wake Forest @ Duke

SD: Poor Wake Forest. For a brief period in the late 90’s and early 00’s Wake was a pre-eminent basketball location. It produced 2 of the best NBA players of the last 15 years (stoic Tim Duncan and nut-punching Chris Paul). But over the last few years it has regressed to the bottom of the ACC barrel. As a Florida State football fan, I can relate to team’s going from being one of the best in the country to being a conference also-ran. Duke on the other hand never changes. Lots of wins. Occasional championships. Unlikable players. Coach with dyed, glued on hair. Dick Vitale’s undying love. They could only get more unlikable if David Stern had gone there. Go Wake.

Shadow: Where else but college sports can you see the Demons versus the Devils?  Duke seems to always lead the league in recruiting the most annoying players in the country and then calling them “scrappy”.  Someone once said that success breeds contempt.  I don’t know what that means, but Christian Laetner (should have been disallowed from playing for a team with Devil as a mascot) and Bobby Hurl-ley soured me on Duke basketball for all time.  Go Wake.

West Virginia @ Syracuse

SD: Bob Huggins and Jim Boeheim are the polar opposites of the coaching world. One looks like he spends his free time at the Bada Bing Club. One looks like an Anthropology professor. Yet both have had similar careers – consistently successful with minimal post-season success (just Carmelo single-handedly taking over March Madness in 2003 keeps them from being championship-less). I will cheer on WVU and Bob here only because I appreciate Bob’s willingness to always take on dead teams and resurrect them. Cincinnati, Kansas State, West Virginia. None are glamour positions, yet he has succeeded at each. Whether he had a little assistance along the way from friends in the ‘Waste Management’ or ‘Import/Export’ business I don’t want to know.

Shadow: Just seeing the word Syracuse makes me feel a little wistful about Melo.  All of us that watched the Nuggets persevere and actually win after his departure still had to admit in our heart of hearts that in the playoffs, you just need that offensive go-to guy that can take over a quarter if needed.  The Nuggets had a bunch of guys who either didn’t seem to want to take a shot and just passed the ball around forever…or guys who never saw a shot they didn’t love to take no matter how ill-advised (looking at you JR Brick and Kenyon).  Painful at times to watch.  So, in honor of my memories of Melo, I will take the Orangemen.  (funny….Native Americans force St Johns to give up their name, but I don’t see the orange-fake tanned Jersey Shore denizens complaining about the Cuse)

[footnote:  yes, I know Syracuse dumped the Orangemen/Orangewomen and just became “The Orange”…but that fact would have prevented my really funny joke]

[footnote 2: fine, it wasn’t really funny…..shut up]

NBA:

Atlanta @ Detroit

SD: Hawks versus Pistons would be a great game if this were still 1988. Unfortunately now it is a game I don’t think I would watch even if it is the only NBA game played before 2012. Ok, that is a lie. Like an alcoholic sipping on cough syrup, if this is all I could get, I would take it. The Hawks would definitely win but I will go with Detroit just because I have retained a soft spot for Joe Dumars since he gave both Carmelo and Anthony and Chauncey Billups to the Nuggets. It’s the least I could do to re-pay him.

Shadow: The Tigers made the playoffs and beat the Yankees.  The Lions are measurably better than the Broncos right now and will probably paste us at the end of the month.  I know I should be trying to follow Dave’s theme….but I have too much hate for Detroit right now.  So, I am taking Atlanta.

Washington @ Carolina

SD: The Late Career Michael Jordan Derby! Washington, site of a comeback we have all wiped from our memories, and his first attempt at destroying a franchise from within the front office (Kwame Brown!) versus his current hobby in Carolina. The only time I ever saw Jordan play live was in a Wizards uniform which is like saying “I’ve only seen Robert DeNiro in the Meet the Parents movies.” It is a shame I carry with me to do this day. I have to go with Carolina, if for no other reason, than to try and wipe this stain off my soul.

Shadow: If Washington were still the Bullets, I would totally go for them.  I loved that nickname.  So much more politically incorrect and insensitive than any amount of Seminoles and Indians and what not.  I am less enthused with the Wizards moniker.  I think the Bobcats would be an exciting team to watch…and I would root for them, especially since they would be home in this matchup…and I would get to see Kristi.

We have reached the point in the season where all football fans fall into one of four categories.

The first group is the Confetti Orderers; fans whose teams look so strong that they can’t help but envision their team lifting a trophy while they reign down confetti on the heads of their friends. However, given the large percentage of these people that live in Wisconsin, they might want to also start envisioning a daily stroll around the block so that they don’t die of a heart attack from too many brats and beers before that moment gets here.

The second group are the Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dahs; fans of teams that came into season with low expectations but have shown just enough promise that even if they aren’t championship caliber this season, they are competitive, fun and promise such a bright future that the fans feel like there are cartoon birds whistling around their heads all the time. These fans celebrate wins and shrug off losses – but always keep a grin on their face that makes them look like they just spent the night with Sophia Vergara.

I hate these people.

The third group are the Depressed Fishermen; fans of teams that have already failed and show little sign of improvement. These are the people that will constantly point to a close loss as the highlight of the season – the ‘one that got away’. Football fans, they still want to watch the season but every win by a rival or discussion of a loss by their team is like an X-acto knife to the shoulder.

If you can’t tell, this is where I sit. I will spend the rest of the year talking about the FSU’s loss to Oklahoma and how it changed the entire season and the miracle Tebow comeback against the Chargers that fell one mad scramble short of victory.

The Final Group are the Walking Dead; fans of teams so awful and depressing they have already given up on the season and spent more time last weekend thinking about Kim Kardashian’s wedding than football.

No matter which group you fall in as a fan though, you are still better off than another group about to get several new members: the Ex-Coaches. No, not a gang of bank robbers wearing rubber masks of Rich Rodriguez, Jim Tressell, Ralph Friedgen and Eric Mangini, but rather coaches that have been fired for having an underperforming team. Now is the time of year when this party grows by a few new members as owners and A.D.s get fed up with poor performance and decide now is time to make a change.

In honor of this soon-to-be-larger group, that is our theme for this week’s THH. Each match-up consists of 2 teams formerly coached the same person. Our question: which team would that ex-coach cheer for?

College:

Colorado vs. Washington (Rick Neuheisel)

I like to think when Rick Neuheisel left CU to take the job at UW he re-created one of my favorite movie scenes:

“I came to Washington for the sunshine.”

“But Rick, it rains here 9 months of the year.”

“I was mis-informed.”

Instead he left CU for the money and access to west coast players. Rick was fired from UW over money as well; in particular, his willingness to bet large amounts of it on a March Madness bracket. Credit where it is due though, Rick seems like the type of guy that picks lots of upsets – I bet he had a 10 seed in the Final Four. After that acrimonious exit, I think Rick is cheering on CU this weekend. Like when Steve Guttenberg left the Police Academy series, neither has ever been the same without the other.

Miami vs. UNC (Butch Davis)

When Davis was fired from UNC a couple months ago, I tweeted several times about how no coach has gotten a greater reputation from fewer results than Davis. He helped resurrect Miami after probation but after he left UM, Larry Coker went to 2 straight national title games – and he might have been dead for part of the second season. Davis went to Cleveland and proceeded to almost have a winning record. At UNC he had more talent than nearly team in the country (based on the NFL draft) and never did better than lose 4 games. In short, he turned around bad teams and made them mediocre, sort of like Ashton Kutcher’s impact on sitcoms. Since the U was where Davis first gained a reputation and its continued mediocrity makes him look retroactively better I think he cheers for them on Saturday.

NFL

San Francisco vs. Detroit (Steve Mariucci)

Until Jim Harbaugh commuted up the peninsula from Stanford and turned the Niners from annual underachievers into a legitimate force, Mariucci was the last successful coach at Candlestick Park; taking the Niners to the playoffs four times. In Detroit, his greatest accomplishment was putting Tom Izzo in the stands for the inevitable weekly discussion of the two being best friends. Because I can’t imagine anyone picking Detroit over San Francisco for any reason, I say Mooch is cheering on the Niners.

Dallas vs New England (Bill Parcells)

Bill Parcells might be the least likable but inordinately successful coach in football not named Nick Saban. While he never had the success with the Pats and Cowboys that he enjoyed with the Giants, he did take the Pats to the Super Bowl. He also got the Cowboys to the playoffs with Quincy Carter and Tony Romo at quarterback which is almost more improbable than Boise State becoming a college football power.

What Parcells does not get enough credit for is his pioneering work in the practice of temporary retirements. He ‘retired’ from the Giants, Patriots, Jets and Cowboys but kept returning to coaching. In this way, he really paved the way for the Favre circus of the last several years, which in my mind should be enough to keep him out of the Hall of Fame.

It says something that Parcells finally retired for good after less than a season of coaching Tony Romo and the first of Romo’s many pressure moment choke jobs when he muffed a hold for a field goal and lost to Seattle in the playoffs. If it hadn’t been for Romo, we might have another 5 years of Parcells unretiring every off-season. While we should cheer Romo for that, I have to imagine someone with the ego that Parcells does, misses the spotlight and blames Romo for it. For that reason he will cheer on the Pats this week.

Over the course of a protracted trial and appeals process, the media – always desperate for ways to make you care about they write – over-sensationalized and over-romanticized the Amanda Knox murder trial to the point of absurdity. Least of which was alternately labeling Knox a Femme Fatale or innocent abroad (depending on which country was viewing the report).

Really the least reprehensible of their myriad of reporting crimes is labeling a relatively mundane looking girl ‘Foxy Knoxy’.

(Come on, she has been set free, so we can now be honest without piling on. She just isn’t that ‘foxy’. She will not be playing herself in the Lifetime movie).

Desperation by media companies to keep your attention in increasingly crowded, hyper-competitive new world requires something more than Walter Cronkite these days, and people without the journalistic skills or the intelligence required to bring a new point of view, will just sensationalize the mundane until we all lose brain cells.

You also know it as the TMZ business model: if something isn’t news just keep repeatedly telling us it is news until we believe you.

This disease also infects the world of sports writing.

Woody Paige has spent the last 9 months lobbying incessantly for Tim Tebow to start for the Broncos and then, with the appropriate level of self-awareness for a man only slightly less orange than Beaker’s hair, writes that the Broncos coaching staff has to address ‘the Tebow situation’ because it just won’t go away. Never does it dawn on Woodrow that it might go away if he would shut up about it on occasion.

But Woody isn’t alone. There are plenty of man-made stories floating around the internet these days. Ostensibly meant to inform, they really are just meant to get you to read. Whether they are true, false, intelligent or dumb doesn’t matter as long as you click. Call is the Bleacher Reportization of sports news.

Well, Knoxy was finally set free, so let’s review some of these and see if they are guilty or innocent.

The Coming BCS Nightmare

It happens every year. Someone jumps to the conclusion that because we have made it through a few marquee games and several weeks of the season, we are destined for a BCS nightmare in which 5 or 6 teams finish the season undefeated, a BCSpocalypse results and the zombies take over.

Or something – I have never been clear on the worst case scenario. So undefeated teams end up not playing for the title? We have been there before and didn’t need a speech by the President the next morning to see the sun rise.

This year, the generally very entertaining and intelligent Clay Travis was the first to jump on this wagon. Clay lays out some compelling arguments for us having 6 or 7 undefeated teams. But allow me to respond, with an equally well reasoned argument.

This is college football. Crazy, unexpected shit always happens.

Last year at this time, there were 16 undefeated teams in the Top 25. You could look at the top 6 and see no way they could lose (unless to another undefeated team). Yet, by the end of the regular season, all but 3 had lost.

In 2009, we had 10 undefeateds at this time. By the end of the season, 5 remained with 2 from power-conferences so far ahead in the minds of pollsters it was moot.

It will happen again this year. Stanford falls to Oregon. Michigan State shocks Wisconsin. Georgia Tech knocks off Clemson. It happens every year.

If the favorite always won, none of the casinos out in Vegas would be the size of the International Space Station.  

The New NFL Heavyweight

The Lions now sit at 4-0. They have a good young quarterback, dominating defensive line and the most freakishly talented wide receiver in football. They have two improbably comeback wins in the last two weeks, both on the road. People are starting to look at them as one of the short list of Super Bowl contenders.

But take a look at those wins again. They have had more than 100 yards rushing once. Their defense is ranked #20 against the run. The combined records of the teams they have beaten are 6-10, with half of those 6 wins by 1 team.

I know it is fun to see new, young teams seemingly mature in front of our eyes and god knows, it is exciting to look forward to a meaningful Thanksgiving morning game. But beyond being exciting and new, young teams are also always…umm…young (take that analysis footballoutsides!). And youth is erratic and emotional.

The last two weeks the Lions have had 2 stirring come from behind victories. But, while their never-say-die attitude was refreshing and fun, a key component of coming from behind is falling behind in the first place (more cutting-edge analysis!).

In the first half yesterday, Tony Romo picked apart the Lions defense like it was the top ten at a Ms. Texas pageant. If the residue from Texas A&M’s epic collapse from the day before in the same building hadn’t been rubbed on Romo’s arm in the 2^nd half, the Lions would be a nice story but nothing more.

The week before, the Vikings led the Lions 20-0 at halftime. With Donovan McNabb’s decaying carcass playing quarterback. By design. Seriously.

The Lions are a nice story and I truly do hope they make the playoffs at the expense of one of the vastly overrated NFC East teams that always get shoved down our throats, but for all of those putting money down on those ever-shrinking Lions Super Bowl odds, see my note above about the size of casinos.

Hank Williams Jr. is an Idiot

….Ok, who am I kidding – Hank Williams Jr. IS an idiot. When you say something so profoundly dumb that even Fox & Friends can’t believe you said it, you are setting a new high (low?) in idiocy. I can only hope that the first episode of the new Beavis and Butthead includes the pair watching Hank’s comments and making fun of him just to drive home how truly dumb it was.

If I were Hank’s PR person, the only way to avoid becoming Mel Gibson-esque unemployable would be to now claim you were trying to make a bigger statement. Try to claim that by saying something so moronic and mis-informed you were actually making a larger statement about the education system in the U.S.. The fact that there may be a fraction of people out there who agreed with him just proves our education system is a shambles and needs to be addressed before all of our children confuse unpopular economic stimulus and health care plans with genocide.

Tony Romo and Mark Sanchez are the Worst Quarterbacks to ever play

No matter what the experts say today, Tony Romo and Mark Sanchez woke up this morning the same quarterback they have always been. Both players have long gotten a pass from a media more interested in the human interest story than play on the field. But after high profile disasters, suddenly Romo-Sanchez bashing has become a more popular sport than quidditch.

Romo is a proud limb on the Favre quarterbacking tree: a player that smiles a lot, makes friends in the media, makes some beautiful plays but combines them with inexplicably dumb plays. He has been that player since he came to the league and he will be until he leaves. Some people can pretend that the meltdown against the Lions was something new. It wasn’t. It was the same player we have known since he dropped the snap on a short game-winning field goal at Seattle in the 2006 playoffs.

In another week or two, the Cowboys will beat the Eagles or Giants and once again America will love Romo. Until then we will have to hear about all of his mistakes. As if this is new.

Sanchez on the other hand has always confounded me. I admitted as much in the pre-season. His play is ugly but his team seems to usually find a way to win – whether because of or in spite of him. After getting picked apart like a Thanksgiving turkey by the Ravens defense, a fresh round of hand-wringing and ranting is polluting the airwaves and bandwidth of New York.

But like Romo, when he upsets the Bills or Patriots in a few weeks’ time, he will be right back to being the toast of the city.

Amanda Knox had to wait 2 years to be freed of murder charges. In the meantime there was constant baseless speculation and conjecture to fill the hours.

Sometimes, it would be better if we would all step back and take a breath before we reach a conclusion.

Much like my vocal cords, THH is recovering a little slowly from last week’s epic game in Tallahassee. While THH was in complete hibernation until it was too late to pick the college games, my voice crept slowly back to life as the week progressed. On Sunday, my voice ranged a soft whisper to, at best, the voice of a guy talking through a hole in his throat. By Tuesday I was starting to sound like Kathleen Turner. By Thursday I had made it all the way back to Wendi Nix.

Really, the only benefit to my scratchy throat was my dead-on sing along to a Johnny Cash song on my I-pod.

Anyway, I have finally recovered from last week’s painful FSU loss. Sadly, the Noles did not. Somehow a team that gave up 23 points to the best team in the land allowed Clemson to put up 35 today. But more on that later.

Let’s set aside the very painful world of college football and focus on the pros.

In honor of one of my all-time favorite Americans, this week is Neighbors week. All the games feature teams playing a team from a neighboring state.

It’s just too bad I didn’t get to this before the college game because I was really excited to label the Nebraska/Wyoming game ‘The Cabelas Bowl’ – a battle between the state that is the home to Cabela’s and a state that is home to 69% of their consumers.

But instead, we will focus on the big boys. And in honor of these neighborly battles, the games will be decided with one simple question:

What would Mr. Rogers do?

NFL

Houston @ New Orleans

I know Mr. Rogers is remembered as the epitome of wholesome family entertainment but if there is one thing that our religious and Republican leaders have taught me, it’s that the more wholesome and devout someone appears, the more crazy sh*t they like to do when the lights are off. While this might make you think Mr. Rogers would cheer for Houston and their soon-to-be outed Governor Rick Perry (who doth protests way too much), I think we all know that when it comes to debauchery, New Orleans is in a neighborhood all its own. Geaux Saints.

Detroit @ Minnesota

One of the best parts of Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood was when he went to visit the neighborhood of Make-Believe. Unlike fans of rap battles, it would be understandable that anyone that values neighborhoods and neighbors would not like Detroit, but, the neighborhood of Make-Believe is key to understanding why both Mr. Rogers and I would cheer for the Lions. Only someone that spends part of their week in the Land of Make-Believe could ever think that Matthew Stafford could stay healthy for an entire season.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

While Mr. Rogers’ entire show was about his neighborhood that was all make-believe. Even the stuff outside the neighborhood of Make-Believe. Mr. McFeely was not a delivery man. He was an actor named David Newell, playing a character named after Fred Rogers’ grandfather. Mr. Rogers’ real neighborhood was the other shows that aired around his show on PBS. So in that way, the inhabitants of Sesame Street were more Mr. Rogers’ neighbors than anyone in Make-Believe land. And anyone that has spent any time on Sesame Street knows we should be nice to our fellow humans. LeGarrette Blount clearly never watched Sesame Street, so Fred and I are both rooting for the Falcons.

Now that all but 2 teams have played their first pre-season games, we have settled back into the rhythm of preseason games.

Coaches look at preseason games as a delicate balancing act between getting their teams ready for the regular season while minimizing the possibility of losing a key player to injury before the real action has even begun.

This mind-set has led to a standard approach to playing time for starters:

Game #1 – One to two drives – just enough to re-acquaint the players with live game speed

Game #2 – One quarter – a couple drives to (hopefully) find a rhythm and burn the legs a little

Game #3 – At least the first half – closest simulation to a real game that we see before the defending champs kick-off on that Thursday night after Labor Day.

Game #4 – Almost none (older starters sit completely, younger starters get a few plays) – training camp work is done and it is too close to week #1 to risk injury

This approach to the preseason has become gospel – indoctrinated on page 14 of the NFL coaches’ handbook, right between ‘always advertise how often you sleep in the office’ (page 13) and ‘never admit a free agent signing was an epic Speed 2- like mistake’ (page 15). In a profession where conformity is all but mandatory, coaches follow this approach like sheep.

But what if it is 100% wrong?

In an unprecedented year in which there were no offseason workouts and free agency period was shorter than the Little League World Series, teams are struggling to get teams prepared in such a compressed time period.

Add in the new CBA which not only greatly restricts full pad practices but also puts limits on two-a-days and coaches are forced to try and do more work in less time.

Yes, a team can learn an offense conducting walk-throughs in shorts but can a coach actually evaluate his players based on that? This is how starting Andy Dalton at quarterback starts to look like a good idea.

I am all in favor of these new rules as I truly believe it can keep players fresher and reduce the possibility of injury, meaning my fantasy team will be that much more stable and better when fantasy playoffs start…I mean, teams are better prepared for the NFL playoffs.

But with the lack of off-season training, coaches need to take more advantage of preseason games than the official coaching approach dictates.

While watching Friday night’s Buccaneers/Chiefs game (glamorous life I lead, I know), the announcers made several notes about how long Raheem Morris was keeping his starters in the game. The first string played nearly the entire first half.

It was then that it dawned on me that Raheem has gotten considerably smarter since releasing Derrick Brooks upon being hired.  

Why wouldn’t coaches use the preseason games as replacements for the full speed practices they no longer can hold? If the number of full speed practices you can conduct has been drastically reduced, why not take advantage of the 4 full speed practices that the NFL will never remove? If the NFL is going to greedily make fans pay for practices, shouldn’t coaches at least get something out of them?

This is especially true with young teams (like the Bucs) or teams with new coaches. The Broncos starters are still trying to get accustomed to John Fox’s system, yet the starters were done Thursday night before the 2^nd Coors Light commercial. Why?

Some teams would argue their maturity and stability doesn’t require this approach, that health is more important than full speed reps. Tom Brady didn’t play at all the other night, presumably with this in mind. But with new receivers around him, it wouldn’t hurt to have some extra time working on their timing?

Some teams seem to have recognized this. The aforementioned Bucs. The Redskins left Rex Grossman in the game to attempt 26 passes; but most, have stuck with the default formula. Even the Browns with a young team and new coach couldn’t be bothered to ask Colt McCoy to attempt more than 10 passes. That isn’t a team that could use some extra practice together?

If it were up to me, I would argue that coaches should take this a step further and let their ‘starters’ play at the end of the game rather than the first. If starters are only playing 2 drives, isn’t it more valuable to see how they do in end0-of-game situations? Steven McGee’s game winning drive for the Cowboys was nice, but I am sure there are lots in the Lone Star state that would prefer to see if Tony Romo is capable of doing that.

Does this mean that teams that adopt the approach of letting starters play longer are destined for better seasons? Not necessarily – there are just too many variables over a 16-week season.

But if I am a betting man (ok, I AM a betting man), I sure would look twice at some of these teams in the first couple weeks of the season.

Remember when Peyton Manning missed the entire preseason in 2008? Even, the brainiest QB in the land needs time to find a rhythm with his receivers. The Colts started that season 1-2.

The Bucs are currently 3 point favorites at home over the Lions in week #1. Two young teams, that could be vying for sleeper team of the year accolades.

Perennially injured Lion QB Matt Stafford attempted 7 passes Friday night. He played 2 drives, a total of 11 plays and was wearing a ball cap with 10 minutes left in the 1^st quarter.

Josh Freeman attempted 13 passes on 5 drives for the Bucs and didn’t come off the field until there were less than 5 minutes remaining in the 2^nd quarter.

Who do you think might be better prepared for that first weekend?