We have reached the point in the season where all football fans fall into one of four categories.

The first group is the Confetti Orderers; fans whose teams look so strong that they can’t help but envision their team lifting a trophy while they reign down confetti on the heads of their friends. However, given the large percentage of these people that live in Wisconsin, they might want to also start envisioning a daily stroll around the block so that they don’t die of a heart attack from too many brats and beers before that moment gets here.

The second group are the Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dahs; fans of teams that came into season with low expectations but have shown just enough promise that even if they aren’t championship caliber this season, they are competitive, fun and promise such a bright future that the fans feel like there are cartoon birds whistling around their heads all the time. These fans celebrate wins and shrug off losses – but always keep a grin on their face that makes them look like they just spent the night with Sophia Vergara.

I hate these people.

The third group are the Depressed Fishermen; fans of teams that have already failed and show little sign of improvement. These are the people that will constantly point to a close loss as the highlight of the season – the ‘one that got away’. Football fans, they still want to watch the season but every win by a rival or discussion of a loss by their team is like an X-acto knife to the shoulder.

If you can’t tell, this is where I sit. I will spend the rest of the year talking about the FSU’s loss to Oklahoma and how it changed the entire season and the miracle Tebow comeback against the Chargers that fell one mad scramble short of victory.

The Final Group are the Walking Dead; fans of teams so awful and depressing they have already given up on the season and spent more time last weekend thinking about Kim Kardashian’s wedding than football.

No matter which group you fall in as a fan though, you are still better off than another group about to get several new members: the Ex-Coaches. No, not a gang of bank robbers wearing rubber masks of Rich Rodriguez, Jim Tressell, Ralph Friedgen and Eric Mangini, but rather coaches that have been fired for having an underperforming team. Now is the time of year when this party grows by a few new members as owners and A.D.s get fed up with poor performance and decide now is time to make a change.

In honor of this soon-to-be-larger group, that is our theme for this week’s THH. Each match-up consists of 2 teams formerly coached the same person. Our question: which team would that ex-coach cheer for?

College:

Colorado vs. Washington (Rick Neuheisel)

I like to think when Rick Neuheisel left CU to take the job at UW he re-created one of my favorite movie scenes:

“I came to Washington for the sunshine.”

“But Rick, it rains here 9 months of the year.”

“I was mis-informed.”

Instead he left CU for the money and access to west coast players. Rick was fired from UW over money as well; in particular, his willingness to bet large amounts of it on a March Madness bracket. Credit where it is due though, Rick seems like the type of guy that picks lots of upsets – I bet he had a 10 seed in the Final Four. After that acrimonious exit, I think Rick is cheering on CU this weekend. Like when Steve Guttenberg left the Police Academy series, neither has ever been the same without the other.

Miami vs. UNC (Butch Davis)

When Davis was fired from UNC a couple months ago, I tweeted several times about how no coach has gotten a greater reputation from fewer results than Davis. He helped resurrect Miami after probation but after he left UM, Larry Coker went to 2 straight national title games – and he might have been dead for part of the second season. Davis went to Cleveland and proceeded to almost have a winning record. At UNC he had more talent than nearly team in the country (based on the NFL draft) and never did better than lose 4 games. In short, he turned around bad teams and made them mediocre, sort of like Ashton Kutcher’s impact on sitcoms. Since the U was where Davis first gained a reputation and its continued mediocrity makes him look retroactively better I think he cheers for them on Saturday.

NFL

San Francisco vs. Detroit (Steve Mariucci)

Until Jim Harbaugh commuted up the peninsula from Stanford and turned the Niners from annual underachievers into a legitimate force, Mariucci was the last successful coach at Candlestick Park; taking the Niners to the playoffs four times. In Detroit, his greatest accomplishment was putting Tom Izzo in the stands for the inevitable weekly discussion of the two being best friends. Because I can’t imagine anyone picking Detroit over San Francisco for any reason, I say Mooch is cheering on the Niners.

Dallas vs New England (Bill Parcells)

Bill Parcells might be the least likable but inordinately successful coach in football not named Nick Saban. While he never had the success with the Pats and Cowboys that he enjoyed with the Giants, he did take the Pats to the Super Bowl. He also got the Cowboys to the playoffs with Quincy Carter and Tony Romo at quarterback which is almost more improbable than Boise State becoming a college football power.

What Parcells does not get enough credit for is his pioneering work in the practice of temporary retirements. He ‘retired’ from the Giants, Patriots, Jets and Cowboys but kept returning to coaching. In this way, he really paved the way for the Favre circus of the last several years, which in my mind should be enough to keep him out of the Hall of Fame.

It says something that Parcells finally retired for good after less than a season of coaching Tony Romo and the first of Romo’s many pressure moment choke jobs when he muffed a hold for a field goal and lost to Seattle in the playoffs. If it hadn’t been for Romo, we might have another 5 years of Parcells unretiring every off-season. While we should cheer Romo for that, I have to imagine someone with the ego that Parcells does, misses the spotlight and blames Romo for it. For that reason he will cheer on the Pats this week.

I arrived in Texas this morning.

Sadly, I was hoping I would land in the middle of a Anchorman-style back-alley brawl with A&M, Texas and Baylor alumni groups fighting to the death but instead it is just hot and dry and flat like usual. Too bad.

Though for the record, if any local alumni group is throwing a trident in a back-alley brawl it is absolutely the alumni group from Rice.

Being in Dallas also puts me in the mind of the Cowboys and the NFC. With Jerry’s spaceship visible for 50 miles in every direction it is hard to not think about the Cowboys when you are here. Even if your one trip to Jerryworld was less than ideal (though that trip still generates more hits than every other post on this site combined, so I really can’t say too much negative about Mr. Jones).

With Jerry in mind then, let’s pick this year’s NFC Champion as well as our eventual Super Bowl Champ.

NFC East

Obviously the trendy pick here is the Eagles. In fact, it is so obvious that it is clear to me that it will never happen (call that Vizzini logic). Have you noticed that all of the key players on the Eagles are physically small? Vick, McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Nnamdi Asomugha. All are slight for professional football players. On the positive side, this means they won’t be cursed with man-boobs later in life, but on the negative it means that they are more susceptible to injury today. It is hard for me to see all of them making it throught he season unscathed, most likely because neither DeSean nor Vick ever has. I think that will allow the Cowboys, flying under the radar for the first time in 2 decades, to sneak in and take the division. If Romo can stay healthy and the defense plays to its potential it won’t take much for the Cowboys to be the most overrated football team in America by early October (especially with Notre Dame already proving that they are a joke). The Giants look like the very definition of mediocrity to me and the Redskins actually had a quarterback competition between Rex Grossmann and John Beck. Even worse it was for starter!

Winner: Cowboys 11-5

Wild Card: Eagles 10-6

NFC North

The home of our Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers but also home to 2010 division winners Chicago Bears and trendy sleeper pick Detroit Lions (as well as a Vikings team that went from overrated to afterthought in less than a year thanks to one forty plus year old former drug addict. Explain that one to your kids). Two things to remember about the 2010 Packers. First, they needed the Lions beating the Bucs in Tampa to even make the playoffs on a tiebreaker. Second, they had something like 17 regular players out with injuries at various times throughout the season yet still won 3 straight road playoff games and the Super Bowl. Basically, what I am saying is that I don’t see any way they don’t cruise to an easy NFC North title this year. I think the Bears fail to achieve last year’s heights due to (1) tougher division champ schedule (2) defense that is a year older and (3) an even mopier Jay Cutler who dumped the only person in America that doesn’t despise him. The Lions still feel too young to me. Or maybe they are too Matt Stafford-y for me; relying on a guy who doesn’t make it through a 16-game regular season on Madden without an injury. The Vikings brought in Donovan McNabb 3 years too late and therefore will get a lot of garbage time in December for young Christian Ponder, whose accuracy I have a new found respect for after watching EJ Manuel last weekend.

Winner: Packers 12-4

NFC South

Last year’s NFC South champion Falcons have all the earmarks of a perennial division champion. Unfortunately that division champion is named the Norv Turner-era San Diego Chargers. Like the Chargers, the Falcons have a young quarterback with a bland name and relatively bland game. Both undeniably talented but never destined to date a super model. Solid but not spectacular defenses. And regular season success followed up by post-season failure. The Falcons feel like a team that will make the playoffs every other year; the years they get a soft schedule for placing poorly in their divisions the year before. The Saints, on the other hand, made every right move. They jettisoned Kardashian-loving, Heisman-returning Reggie Bush, who could never quite fit and replaced him with Heisman holding Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles who is best known as L.T.’s former back-up in San Diego and the inspiration for my favorite gambling phrase. More importantly, after giving up a spectacular run to Marshawn Lynch in the playoffs they also shored up their defensive line. Their only competition looks to come from Tampa Bay, where a young group of cast-offs may be in the process of forming a new super team. Thankfully, for my sanity and Fox’s ratings, I think we are at least one more year away from a Lions/Bucs NFC Championship.

Winner: Saints 12-4

Wildcard: Buccaneers 10-6

NFC West

It is interesting that every time I write about an entire NFL conference I end with the West. In this case, last is MOST CERTAINLY least. After giving us our first ever Division winner with a losing record last year, it seems that the NFC West somehow got worse in the offseason. This would be like finding out a Bachelor contestant got more desperate after their time on the show. Or that the cast of Jersey Shore are more embarrassing when the cameras aren’t rolling. It might be the most underreported story of the year. The Seahawks lost Matt Hasselbeck and now look to either Tavares Jackson or the original Clipboard Jesus, Charlie Whitehurst, as their every down quarterback. But at least they have no talent around him to take off the pressure. The 49ers are the same every year: plenty of talent but lacking enough talent in important areas <cough> Alex Smith <cough> to ever really compete. The Cardinals have pinned all of their hopes to a former back-up that played about one game last year. The Cardinals think they got the next Philip Rivers. I think they got the next Trent Green. The Rams, on the other hand look like a young team headed in the right direction. They still have no receivers for Sam Bradford to throw to (Danny Amendola…seriously???) but after being one game short of the playoffs last year I think they can make it this year.

Winner: Rams 10-6

Wildcard

Eagles at Rams – looks like we are still a year away from the Lions, Bucs and Rams becoming this generation’s version of the 1990’s 49ers, Cowboys and Packers. God help us all. Eagles win.

Buccaneers at Cowboys – Say what you want about Tony Romo in high pressure situations but he knows how to win at home against overmatched teams. Cowboys win.

Divisional Playoffs

Cowboys at Packers – Say what you want about Tony Romo in high pressure situations but on the road in hostile conditions against good teams he turns into a quivering blob of jelly. Packers win.

Eagles at Saints – Remember that one time that Drew Brees and Sean Payton hosted an important game in the Super Dome and lost? Yeah me neither. Saints win and Spike Lee is inspired to create a 10 hour documentary about the horrors of dog fighting.

NFC Championship

Packers at Saints – A battle of our last two Super Bowl winners in probably the most painful Hierarchy of Hate decision I will have to make until the Seminoles go pro and are put in the Broncos division. I like everything about both of these teams: the players, the cities, the uniforms. Even that they were once quarterbacked by Lynn Dickey and Bobby Hebert. This game is just too close to call. I will take the Vegas way out and give the 3-point win to the home team.

(Note: please don’t ask why I think the Saints are the home team with both teams having equal regular season records. If Roger Goodell doesn’t have to explain any of his arbitrary decisions, neither do I).

NFC Champion: New Orleans Saints

Super Bowl

Saints vs. Steelers

The dirty secret about the Steelers is that they are starting to get older. James Harrison only has so many more cheap shots left in him. Troy Polamalu is already chasing that sweet shampoo money because he knows time stops for no man, even those with hair down to their waist. Hines Ward was in such bad shape that his off-season workout was limited to ballroom dancing! After a season beating up on the slower AFC North and taking a pounding in the process, the Steelers are in no shape to chase the speedy Saints all over the field for 60 minutes.

The first Hand Grenade from Tropical Isle is on me. Saints win another Super Bowl.

There are two old clichés that have defined much of what I believe about sports:

(1) Those that don’t learn from the past are destined to repeat it

And

(2) I am from Missouri; you have to show me something to make me believe it

Basically until I see something that convinces me otherwise, I am going to rely on what has happened before. While it occasionally keeps me from feeling like a genius for calling the out of nowhere championship run, for the most part this keeps me from falling into the same old traps that repeatedly suck in others.

Over the years I have accumulated a number of these assumptions that I hold to as religiously as ESPN holds to the belief that the entire country only cares about the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies. They have served me well, been repeatedly proven correct and, as Chuck D said, allow me to write don’t believe the hype.

Some of my core commandments:

 - Notre Dame football will be overhyped and ultimately end up mediocre

- A politician that cheats on his wife will always choose a fat, unattractive woman

 - Virginia Tech football will lose one or two games each year that they shouldn’t

- If the side effects of a drug are worse than the ailment being treated, that drug isn’t worth taking

- The Cowboys will disappoint

- The Texans will end the season within a game of being .500

- Always bet on him if there is a heavy favorite in non Triple Crown horse races

- Sportswriters will always believe it was better in the past

However, something is happening that is making me worry that at least one of my bedrock beliefs is in jeopardy of being proven wrong. Naturally, this leads me to wonder: what could that mean for the rest?

For years, the Mavericks have leveraged a deep, experienced team to achieve a solid regular season record and high playoff seeding. However, outside of a 2006 run that resulted in a painful loss to the Heat in the Finals, this consistent regular season success has ended in early playoff disappointment.

It had reached the point where it had become a given. The Mavs would raise hopes as one of the premiere teams in the NBA during the regular season, before going all Tony Romo once the playoffs arrived.

But now, the Mavs have already survived an upset bid by the perennial sleeper Trail Blazers and vanquished the defending champion Lakers.

Last night, they took a 1 game lead on the Team Formerly Known As The SuperSonics Before They Were Stolen By A Bastard From Oklahoma (or TFKATSSBTWSBABFO as I call them).

Unless the TFKATSSBTWSBABFO find some way to slow down Dirk Nowitzki, who reigned down more bombs than were dropped in the London Blitz, the Mavs could be well on their way to the NBA Finals once again.

Frankly, this is more Earth shattering to my worldview than Thor being the highest grossing movie for 2 weeks in a row.

If the Mavs, in their advanced age with no major team or coaching changes can suddenly find a new gear in the post-season and a new will to win does this mean that other opinions that I have taken as a given could also buck years of tradition and suddenly find new success?

Can a team that I annually write off and mock others for believing in, suddenly blow all of my expectations out of the water?

If so, who?

 There is one logical contender. A team that is consistently highly regarded, with a lot of talent that consistently fails to meet expectations. The team is also experienced and has seen little turnover. A couple supporting players being brought in could find a way to overcome a coach and team leader that has consistently failed in the clutch.

It pains me to say, but could the Mavs success prelude a deep Chargers playoff run?

Every year the Chargers are tagged by the experts as a Super Bowl contender. And every year they fail miserably. In fact, it is so predictable I wrote an entire post last summer mocking ultimate-insider Peter King’s early pick of a San Diego Super Bowl appearance (which, to his credit, had changed to a Packer/Steeler Super Bowl pick by the season’s start).

But what if, 2011 is one of those years where form doesn’t hold?

Despite their repeated playoff failures with Phillip Rivers under center and Norv Turner under the headset, the Chargers aren’t far off from contending in an increasingly wide-open AFC as the traditional powers continue to age. The Chargers largely underperformed last year thanks to abysmal special teams, a disappointing running game and a lack of talent at wide receiver.

The defense was solidified in the draft to replace players that have migrated away. The Special Teams coordinator was canned and can only get better. Ryan Matthews enters a 2^nd year with a better understanding of what is needed to play in the pros.

The only missing piece is wide receiver. If they can re-sign Vincent Jackson or trade him for a receiver that wants to be in San Diego, they could return to their perennial spot atop the AFC West, won last year by the Chiefs, presumably through the use of some sort of black magic.

A new wide receiver might play the role something like the Mavs adding Tyson Chandler: he isn’t the key factor to the Mavs success but provides another weapon to use.

The only missing factor would be finally finding a way to win in the playoffs. And, in addition to any residual Mavs magic, the Chargers have one big bonus working in their favor: stability.

Other teams may be trying to integrate free agents right up to the beginning of the season, thanks to the lock-out delaying any and all roster moves. In this year, stability and veteran leadership could take on out-sized advantage. Having the vast majority of the team and coaching staff in place could be enough to help the Chargers finally get over the hump and live up to their talent level.

I am the last person advocating a perennial underachiever finding a way to reach new heights without significant changes.

But if the Mavs can suddenly find a switch to turn on, why couldn’t the Bolts?

There is apparently some cult or religious group that believes this coming Saturday, May 21^st will be the beginning of the end of the world. I typically ignore these whack jobs, but maybe this time they aren’t completely wrong.

If the Mavs can be on the brink of a title – it is, at a minimum, the end of the sports world as we know it.

Draft week is finally here; real, concrete news out of the NFL that is more about players than lawyers.

I know a bunch of lawyers. The last thing I want is lawyers to be the key players in my sports soap operas.

Strangely it is also the week in which NFL teams become most like politicians – you know – former lawyers that decided to ‘give back’ (i.e. – the power of running a firm full of other lawyers wasn’t enough for their massive egos). No matter what head-scratching moves a team makes in or leading up to the draft, the team will act like they just chose the right goblet from the Grail Knight.

On draft day, Cam Cameron acted like he sincerely believed one-legged Tim Ginn was the missing piece from a Dolphin Super Bowl run.

On draft day, the Forty-Niners convinced themselves Alex Smith was the heir apparent to Steve Young, rather than Jim Druckenmiller.

Draft day, where optimism really does spring eternal.

Of course, that isn’t the case. If history has taught us anything, it is that most of these high draft picks can at best aspire to an NFL career long enough to qualify them for a pension (assuming the NFLPA gets a pension in the coming labor agreement).

But that won’t stop each team from making the heartfelt case that the newest member of the organization will be the one hoisting the Lombardi trophy.

But which players will fail to meet those lofty expectations? I’m so excited for the draft I flew to Charlotte tonight to get the low-down on the first overall pick right from the source. Maybe its a sign, maybe it isn’t, but on the way in from the airport I saw a construction site at least 2 blocks long with a sign reading ‘Future Home of Cecil Newton’s Church That He Really Did Pay For All by Himself’.

Let’s go team by team through the first round and identify the players they should draft. I won’t pretend that I know what these teams will actually do, and have little evidence of teams following my advice (other than my epic guidance for the Jets to draft Mark Sanchez two years ago) but that doesn’t stop me from telling them what they should do.

And by ‘should do’ I mean ‘the draft pick that I think would be most fun for them to take’ not ‘will definitely make them better’.

#1 – Panthers – General consensus is that Cam Newton will be drafted by the Panthers. And who am I to argue. Jimmy Clausen has gotten his last two coaches fired, would you want him to be your franchise QB? Me neither. Some teams are scared off by Newton’s off-field transgressions (felonies, 3 schools in 3 years, transparent auctioning of his skills to the highest bidder), but I think Carolina is uniquely suited to ignore this. Their home state school is led by Butch Davis who has run a clean program once in his coaching career, when he coached the Browns, and we know how that turned out (24-34 record). If willing to hire a perennial cheat like Davis, I would imagine most North Carolinians would almost look with pride at Newton using the transfer payments he received to attend Auburn to help repair his father’s church.

#2 – Broncos – Marcel Dareus fits a glaring need for the Broncos along their defensive line. A glaring need that has been present for so long, it is almost becoming it’s own tradition unlike any other. Beside adding some size and skill to the  Broncos front line, I also like imagining John Fox (who isn’t the youngest coach in the league) and John Elway (who took his fair share of hits to the helmet) trying to keep Marcel Dareus and Darcel McBath straight.

#3 – Bills – You would think that as bad as the Bills have been for years, they would look for a flashy player – a quarterback or receiver to drum up interest among their bi-country fan base. However, they are smart and recognize a team should build from within. Offensive Line and defensive front seven. The Bills are so smart they have have a Harvard man under center! That is why they will grab potential superstar linebacker Von Miller from Texas A&M. Miller could be the best linebacker they have had since Cornelius Bennett played. A player taken when the Bills were led by another Harvard man, Marv Levy. See, with all these Ivy leaguers, the Bills are smart. They aren’t any good at football, but they sure are smart.  

#4 – Bengals – With both Chad Ochocinco Johnson Washedupo and Terrell Owens most likely on their way out of Cincy as soon as the Bengals are allowed to release them, it is important to get Jordan Palmer some help. You can’t go wrong with Julio Jones who looks like he has all the skills to be a star. This is such an obvious pick, that I hear VH1 has already contacted Julio about his own TV series.  I like to think the show is about Julio helping kids that get picked on at the playground to learn to stand up to bullies. Then they can call it ‘Me and Julio Down By the Schoolyard’.  

#5 – Cardinals – The Cardinals went from perennial Super Bowl contenders to the bottom of the worst division in the NFL when Kurt Warner decided he would rather dance on primetime than play for them. After a season of using quarterbacks that wouldn’t be hired to be Adam Sandler’s stunt double in The Longest Yard, the Cardinals need to grab Blaine Gabbert. He is a lock. What could go wrong with the Cardinals drafting a tall, immoble, white quarterback whose last name ends in ‘rt’?

#6 – Browns – AJ Green, the ridiculously talented wide out from Georgia fills a big hole for the Browns. Let’s just hope the Browns have better luck with him than the last WR they drafted known for his one-handed catches in college. Once Braylon Edwards got to Cleveland the only thing he could catch was pity and scorn from LeBron’s hangers-ons.

#7 – Forty-Niners – Unwilling to accept that the Alex Smith era is need of euthanization, the Forty-Niners continue to try and improve their defense to off-set Smith. To put some more skill in front of all-world linebacker Patrick Willis, the Niners should grab Robert Quinn. Sure, he didn’t play last season after taking illegal benefits from agents, but let’s face it, the Forty-Niners haven’t played for most of this decade. Call it a wash.

#8 – Titans – Still looking to replace Albert Haynesworth’s pass rush that jumped at Dan Snyder’s millions years ago, the Titans should reach for Cameron Jordan. Not only will he give them a edge pass rusher, but could open up a whole new population of potential season ticket holders, when frat boys from all over the south buy game tickets after hearing the Titans have acquired Jordan, assuming he is a former sorority girl that has joined the Titans cheerleading squad.  

#9 – Cowboys – There are three things Jerry Jones loves in this world. Meddling with his football team, bringing in players with questionable character and his alma mater Arkansas Razorbacks. I give you the perfect storm of Jones’ incompetence: Ryan Mallett.

#10 – Redskins – The Redskins need help everywhere except quarterback where Rex Grossmann looks to be a perennial Pro Bowler. I see them going for defense – specifically Prince Amukamara. As every Bronco fan remembers, Mike Shanahan has a fetish for drafting cornerbacks. Also, I think of this as tossing a bone to the idiot Birther movement. Just think of the jokes they can make with a guy whose name sounds like African royalty in the same city as President Obama. Those jokes would probably be hilarious. At least to other people dumb enough to be birthers.

#11 – Texans – In the mistaken belief that their offense isn’t a problem, the Texans should look to add more playmakers on defense so this can be the year they finally live up to their annual sleeper contender status. Justin Houston, a linebacker out of Georgia is the perfect fit. 6’3”, 270 pounds with a 4.6 40-yard dash. Plus his last name is Houston! And coming from Georgia he is accustomed to his team failing to meet overblown pre-season expectations.

#12 – Vikings – It looks like it might finally be the end of the Favre era. Let’s all commemorate the falling of an American hero, by pouring our Vicodin out on the curb. Needing a replacement for Favre, the Vikings should turn to Andy Dalton. Sure, there are some concerns his red hair may prevent him from succeeding in the pros, but with the Vikings playing in a dome and Minnesota’s long winters at least we won’t have to worry about Dalton failing because of the sun’s debilitating effects on his fair skin.

#13 – Lions – After just 3 or 4 games, the injury bug impacted Jahvid Best’s rookie campaign for the Lions last year and resurrected concerns about him from college that he can’t stay healthy. If Matt Millen were still in charge he would just go draft Ryan Williams this year despite taking a running back last year. Millen already had experience blowing a draft pick on an overrated Va Tech running back when he took Kevin Jones in 2004. Sigh, I miss Matt Millen.

#14 – Rams – New Rams owner Stan Kroenke wants to make a big splash with his first draft. He wants to make the big-name pick that will draw attention back from the Cardinals and Albert Pujols’ on-going contract drama. Most importantly he wants to help 2^nd year quarterback Sam Bradford. What name makes the most sense to draw excitement to the Rams? If I have said it once, I have said it never, nothing gets fans excited like an offensive lineman from Wisconsin. Gabe Carimi is just the man to get the City by the Arch talking.

#15 – Dolphins – The Dolphins just can’t trust injury-prone Ronnie Brown or mellow-dude Ricky Williams to handle the running game. It is time to start finding young legs to take some of the load. Bruising, consistent Mark Ingram would be the perfect answer but I can’t be the only one thinking that giving Mark Ingram Senior an excuse to visit Miami is a bad idea if we want to win the War On Drugs.

#16 – Jaguars – After years of drafting bustastic wide receivers in the first round, the Jaguars are finally starting to build their defense so that they can still win games, while their perennially mediocre offense sputters along and their fan base continues to shrink. To help both problems, the Jags can draft Jimmy Smith out of CU. Not only will he solidify the Jags’ secondary, but Jags fans can just recycle their old wide receiver Jimmy Smith jerseys and reminisce about the good old days when they were relevant.

We will back to finish out the rest of the first round later this week.

Brad Childress was fired today as the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings. A nice gesture by Vikings ownership to be sure. It tells the fans that they recognize this season hasn’t gone as expected one season after being one horrid Favre-ian decision from the Super Bowl.

Wade Phillips was fired a couple weeks ago for similar reasons. As opposed to Childress getting oh-so-close to the big show last year, Phillips has consistently underperformed but shown just enough to keep thinking there may be next year would be the year. It never was.

It is almost like Phillips and Childress are the yin and yang of fired coaches.

One is fat, one is slim(mer).

One is bald, the other has a full(ler) head of hair.

One lost all hope because his quarterback was injured and couldn’t play, the other because his quarterback is injured (at least when things go wrong) and won’t stop playing.

One looks like he shouldn’t be allowed within 1,000 feet of an elementary school, the other is probably playing Santa at a greater Dallas mall as we speak.

But in one respect, they are as alike as the Manning brothers facing a 2-minute drill.

They lost their jobs because in reality they weren’t in charge.

In a world of over-inflated egos and out of control tempers: from Parcells to Bo Pellini, it should be a relief to see two coaches actually seem to have perspective. Coaches that are able to treat their players with the same respect and kindness that one would expect in any other profession in the world. And maybe it would work if they each hadn’t run into the wrong person: the raging egotist that refuses to listen to others.

Wade Phillips could never really run the Cowboys because Jerry Jones was always there – looming in the shadows, dictating, controlling.

Here is what I wrote about the Cowboys a couple years ago in an AFC title game running commentary:

Is it just me or does that Pepsi commercial with the Cowboys calling ‘60-stretch farllllaaaa’ sum up why they aren’t playing this weekend? Jerry Jones wants to meddle too much, Wade Phillips isn’t smart enough to call a needed timeout and Tony Romo tries to make a play and fails.

Doesn’t it say something that even in a commercial Jerry Jones had to be in control? The Cowboys have only been successful when a coach stood up to Jones. Jimmy Johnson knew Jerry Jones in college, long before Jones became an oil billionaire. He could tell the guy to butt out and mind his own business. But his success only grew Jerry’s ego like the Extenze Johnson would hawk years later. After just a few years of trying to keep Jones in check, Jimmy bailed. Barry Switzer was able to ride the coattails of Johnson’s team to a Super Bowl win but the team has gone straight downhill since. Even Bill Parcells grew tired of Jones’ act before his rebuilding project could be complete. Outside of that time, the team that Jones has built has perfectly reflected its owner: lots of flashy names and big headlines but no substance.

Wade was simply too nice and easy going to succeed with a bull like Jones hiding behind every corner, has any other owner ever been the one to break injury news to the press?

Where Wade couldn’t contend with Jones’ shadow coaching staff, Childress couldn’t handle his chosen quarterback. Favre must have looked at Childress with something bordering on pity when he came to Minnesota: he had overrun more competent coaches than Childress even before he was media-appointed God. When Childress groveled at His knee to not just return once, but twice what chance did he ever have of then instilling any discipline in Favre?

None.

He had set himself down this path by trying to bring in Favre and his raging ego. It worked when they won, but when it started going bad, don’t you think Favre just looked at Childress and thought ‘what have you ever done without me? Don’t tell me what to do.’ any time Childress had a suggestion?

When a coach asks a number of players to fly across the country and beg a player to come back, who do you think the other players in the locker room are going to respect? Childress might have well put his testicles on the flight as well and had those delivered to Favre as well.

Once you have sent that message to your team, why should they ever listen to you again?

When a coach isn’t perceived as being the one running the show, they are done.

When I was growing up, outside of Saved By The Bell, there was one afternoon sitcom most kids I knew watched at least on occasion. Admittedly most of us guys were watching to see a young Nicole Eggert but there were apparently a large contingent of girls out there watching for Scott Baio because we have since learned he was able to get pretty much any woman in the country (and did).

Maybe there was something about him beyond the feathered hair and visible gold chain that made the women swoon.

Charles was in charge.

It is now mid-October. The evenings are getting cold and in the mountains here in Colorado there are large patches of snow and rapidly bare aspens. You can legitimately start thinking about Thanksgiving plans, just a month away.

More importantly we are finally in the heart of football season.

In the past are opening week jitters in the NFL, and uninspiring non-conference college games. We are even past the point every season when the Chargers turn around an embarrassing beginning to go on a long win streak to win the division and brainwash experts into thinking they are better than they are.

Oh, maybe not so much that last one.

In our near-future are late season games to clinch BCS Bowl games and playoff berths.

We are right in the heart of the time where the good teams should be separating themselves from the pack; where we are starting to identify the top few teams that could legitimately get their fans excited for a possible Super Bowl trip. However in an NFL with no undefeated teams, are there any teams that are obvious locks even for the playoffs?

We are also at that time of year when we are being bombarded with campaign commercials for an election less than a month away. Each candidate spends more time calling their opponent names than telling us any good ideas (which explains 87% of what is wrong with the government). Interestingly there seems like a strong parallel between the NFL and election season.

When I started to think about writing about each of the contender teams, I couldn’t focus on their good attributes. Like seeing pictures texted by Brett Favre, I kept focusing on their shortcomings.

As I go through a mental list of each team, I realize pretty much every team falls into one of two camps. They either can pass but can’t run or they can run but can’t pass.

It is the Conservatives and Liberals of the NFL. Whether through personnel, attitude or identity, each team has donned a lapel pin as either a running team or a passing team. In each case if you can shut down their strength you have a chance at a win.

I know one-dimensional teams have won Super Bowls in the past. But those teams were typically one-dimensional by choice.

A passing team like the Saints may have been known for their wide-open throwing but they could run when necessary (6^th in the NFL in rushing yards, 3^rd in rushing TDs).

The Steelers the year before were lumped in as a continuation of the historically strong running Pittsburgh teams but they were actually fairly balanced. Their great defense and a division with horrid offenses allowed for them to be mediocre on offense (17^th in yards passing, 23^rd in yards rushing, 20^th overall) and still win.

The Giants famously trumped the Patriots in 2008 when they had the best passing game in history. Yet, had no running game which allowed the Giants defensive line to tee-off on Tom Brady. On the offensive side, the Giants were a running team that when he got hot in the playoffs had a quarterback doing enough to win the Super Bowl.

In the end a team needs to be able to do both when called upon. I just don’t see many teams capable of that this year. Let’s break the teams into their ideologies:

The Liberals (motto: Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust is not an Economic Policy )

- Colts: In fairness the Colts haven’t been able to run the ball for years. Also, in fairness their only Super Bowl win came against Rex Grossman which should get a Barry Bonds sized asterisk.

- Packers: As shown on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers and his receivers are good but some times not good enough.

- Saints: Reggie Bush is out and so is the Kardashian magic. Until the Saints find some way to run the ball, defenses are going to drop about 14 people deep to cover all the Saints wide receivers

- Patriots: Like the Colts they have been doing this ‘no running game’ thing for a long time. However, they have also been doing this ‘lose in the playoffs to a team they should beat’ thing for a long time too.

- Eagles: Their best runner is their quarterback. Or is he the back-up? Or is he a wild-cat QB? Whatever he is, he shouldn’t be their leading rusher.

- Cowboys: When you rely on Tony Romo to always lead your team to wins in big games, you are destined for some pain come the late season stretch run. Or, in the case of 2010, the early season.

- Broncos: OK, I know it is a big stretch to label them a contender, but have you seen their division? I could make a legitimate argument they are the best team in the AFC West, despite their record. They certainly have a more rightful place on this list than the Cowboys.

The Conservatives (motto: Spreading the Ball Around is Another Name for Redistributing Wealth)

- Jets: Yes, I am sure there are lots of Jets fans feeling pretty good today. But when the Broncos shut down the Jets running game, they relied on the generosity of the refs and Braylon Edwards to catch passes. Being in the home town of the NFL helps ensure that the refs generosity will continue but can any Jets fan seriously trust Braylon Edwards to keep catching passes?

- Vikings: Let’s face it. The 2009 Brett Favre was an oasis in a desert of bad decisions, bad throws and sore arm excuses. Add in the distraction of an NFL investigation and Favre’s wife throwing things at him every time she sees him and the Vikings only chance is to let A.P. run the ball 30 times per game.

- Falcons: Matty Ice is living up to his nickname. Not by being cool under pressure but rather by playing like his throwing arm is numb.

- Texans: Hard to believe that a team with Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub is a running team but Arian Foster is driving this team. Johnson is playing hurt and Schaub has been exposed for what he is: an inconsistent QB who puts up big stats one week and then disappears for the next two. Kind of like the Texans as a whole.

- Titans: Chris Johnson still wants his 2,000 yards but the Titans won’t win handing him the ball constantly. Vince Young needs to at least make defenses think twice before putting 9 in the box to stop CJ.

- Chiefs: I can’t believe I have to include them in a list of contenders but such is the AFC West. However, like the Jets and Braylon Edwards, the Chiefs passing game relies on Dwayne Bowe. And Matt Cassel. Eek.

Just like the real two party system, there are also smaller groups out there: teams that are winning without being very good at passing or running: Seahawks, Bears, Cardinals, Dolphins for example. I guess they would be Libertarians, who don’t believe in any government, like these teams don’t believe in any offense.

Stripping away all of these teams, there are just a few teams left that may have the ability to both pass and run: Centrists. The real contenders:

- Steelers: I mocked Peter King over the summer for picking the Chargers to win the Super Bowl but prior to the season he shifted to the Steelers and is looking very smart today. With Big Ben out of college bar bathrooms and back on the field, the Steelers look like a well-rounded offense, capable of just enough to win with their stellar defense. Or similar to the team that won the Super Bowl two years ago.

- Ravens: I waiver between listing them here or in the above ‘winning without being able to pass or run’ group. The running game has been a little slow in coming on and no one trusts Joe Flacco (not even his own mother). But they have the players to be solid on ground and through the air; they just need to get it together. And if they don’t, Ray Lewis can always take a stab at motivating them.

- Giants: Quietly, the Giants might have the most well-rounded offense in the NFC: #2 in the NFL is passing yards, #7 in rushing yards. How did this happen, and why wasn’t I notified earlier? Obviously I blame Eli. It seems like the one Manning gene he didn’t inherit was the self-promotion gene.

We live in a world of a two-party system. The winners will always be the ones that can find some common ground with both.