We are just 2 short days away from a new NFL season, there is a touch of cool in the air, and Bret Favre is still sitting on a farm doing anything his wife asks in the hopes she forgets about all of that Jenn Sterger sexting. Today is a good day.

It is also time for me to unveil my picks to win each conference and the eventual Super Bowl champion. While I would typically pause here to note that my prediction is as meaningless as all other predictions and should therefore be used for entertainment purposes only, that is no longer the case.

Last year I picked the Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl before the season and then over the course of the playoffs proceeded to go 13-9 in my picks (both first half and full game against the spread).

I’m basically exactly like Jimmy the Greek, less all of the racism and sexism, so you can take what I have to say as the TRUTH, and feel comfortable betting your life savings on it.

Actually don’t do that.

Really. Really. Don’t.

AFC East

There are 2 separate and equally fascinating races in the AFC East. First, between the Patriots and Jets to see who wins the AFC East title. Second, between the Dolphins and Bills for worst record and first opportunity to draft Andrew Luck. I am actually a little more intrigued by the 2^nd race, but that is for another day. I actually believe the Jets will find a way to win the AFC East this year. Part of that is derived from Mark Sanchez having another year under center, his inexplicable ability to win games he shouldn’t, the continued focus on putting more and better weapons around him and his dreamy gaze on the cover of this month’s GQ. I go weak in the knees when faced with his heart melting smile. I am also starting to think that Bill Belichick is trying to recreate late career Mike Shanahan. His ego tells him that because of earlier success he can do anything and be right. He doesn’t address glaring weaknesses (receivers). He brings in malcontents and believes his unique power is enough to control them (Ochocinco, Haynesworth) and his aging team’s playoff performance gets worse every year.

AFC East Winner:  Jets 11-5

Wild Card:  Patriots 10-6

AFC North

The AFC North makes me sad. I want things to change in the AFC North. I really do. I have spent 2 days trying to come up with a rationale for why the Steelers will falter or at least a joke about Roethlisberger raping someone. I can’t find one. Ben even got married! Until he has a late career Favre-ian scandal with a young woman we may not even have Big Ben jokes to make anymore. Sad, sad day. The Ravens tread water every year and try to get better to compete with the Steelers but never quite make it. They are the Kourtney Kardashian of the AFC North – not bad in her own right, but always playing 2^nd fiddle to her more famous sibling with a devious sexual past. This would mean that the Browns are Khloe Kardashian– not on the same level as her sisters but gaining some fame over the last year thanks to a new acquisition (yes, I just equated Lamar Odom to Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis). I guess that makes the Bengals, Bruce Jenner. Both had success many, many years ago but are now just sad, hollow shells of their former selves. Though in fairness, Bruce has had more work done to improve his appearances than the Bengals have.

Winner: Steelers 12-4

Wild Card: Ravens 10-6

AFC South

Can we just skip this one for now? Until we know the health of Peyton Manning, all predictions for the AFC South are meaningless. With a healthy Peyton for the majority of the season, the Colts run away with a bad division. Without Peyton, the AFC South turns into the Big East, and some team will get a game above .500 on the final Sunday to gain an undeserved post-season bid. The popular money is on the Texans, but until Gary Kubiak and Matt Schaub do anything but get the experts hot and bothered, I can’t trust them. The Titans are relying on Chris Johnson and 2 Seattle transplants (Hasselbeck, Locker) to carry them this year, though, the history of tiny running backs and players from Seattle are not promising. The Jaguars are looking to re-create the 2006 Denver Broncos season, in which a highly drafted rookie QB comes in and completely undermines the confidence of decent but not great veteran. We know how that one turns out. Basically, none of these teams should win the division. Let’s just assume Peyton is fully healthy for at least 12 games and give this one to the Colts again. Easier than trying to make an argument for why the Texans will suddenly learn how to win close games.

Winner: Colts 10-6 (Actually this could be any team. Someone will win the AFC South at 10-6 and lose in the first round of the playoffs)

AFC West

It has been 9 months since the end of the 2010 season, and I still can’t figure out how the Chiefs won the AFC West. It is like making the movie A-Team, it seemed reasonable at the time, but in hindsight just leaves you wondering what happened. Needless to say, it is hard to fathom how the Chiefs repeat. Sadly, it seems like the AFC West is all Chargers all the time. The homer in me wants to believe the Broncos will be vastly improved and be the sleeper of the division but I just can’t suspend my disbelief that far. The Broncos dropped from 8-8 to 4-12 thanks to an epically bad defense and a running game that was more imaginary than a game of quidditch. If John Fox can resurrect that running game and defense, Willis McGahee and Elvis Dumervil may finish 1-2 in Comeback Player of the Year voting and the Broncos could sniff a winning record. After showing some improvement last year, it is hard to see the Raiders improving any more. The Chiefs play a harder schedule this year, thank to winning the division so they should predictably fall back. That leaves the Chargers to pick up the scraps and win the division one last time before moving up the I-5 to Los Angeles.

Winner: Chargers 10-6

Wild Card

Patriots at Chargers: Hey, if the Mavs can win a NBA Championship, maybe this really is the year of the perennial also-ran. Chargers win.

Ravens @ Colts: With Ray Lewis on the field, a stabbing pain is always suspected to be a knife wound. Unfortunately for Colts fans, that is just Peyton’s neck getting slammed to the turf by Haloti Ngata. Ravens win.

Division Round

Chargers at Steelers: Nevermind. Guess it isn’t the year for the also-rans. Maybe Mark Cuban can buy the Chargers with his massive earning from Avion tequila and find a way to finally win them a championship after he moves them to L.A. Steelers win.

Ravens at Jets: An ugly game, and not just because Rex Ryan and Joe Flacco are prominently involved. The Ravens have been looking for a way to get their passing game going for years and yet to find it. A blustery January day in New Jersey is not the place to find it. Jets win.

AFC Championship

Jets at Steelers: A re-match of last year – way to go out on a limb with that one, Dave – that will probably play out in much the same way. Picking the Steelers to beat the Jets, is dull, unexciting and expected. Just like this game will be. But at least, it features 2 teams that no one likes, outside of the legion of bandwagon fans that have emerged over the last few years.

Steelers, 2011 AFC Champion.

Ugh.

These days, the news coming from the world of football is more depressing than owning Cavaliers season tickets. With nothing but gloom and doom about the chance of seeing a new collective bargaining agreement any time soon, all of the experts are preparing the rest of us for a NFL-less autumn.

Before we get to the nothing- but-bad-news-football world of 2011, let’s take one last look back at the season we just enjoyed. Assuming you aren’t a Panther fan. Or Patriot fan. Or even a Steelers fan.

It is time for my annual rite of self-inflicted public torture that I like to call ‘Looking Ahead by Looking Back’ in which I review (and mock) my own pre-season predictions and provide the earliest predictions for the 2011 season….you know, if we have one.

My preseason AFC predictions:

AFC East

Everyone and their half-blind 7 year old niece is picking the Jets to win this division. However, these are the same people (less a few of the nieces I think) that constantly tell us how a premier quarterback is the key to winning in the NFL. You can say a lot of things about Mark Sanchez: he dates hot women, he has a cool nickname (the Sanchise), he does a good imitation of other people’s strange walks, etc. but one thing you can’t say is that he is a premier quarterback. Last year, he had a QB rating of 63. That is almost in the Jamarcus range (pre-Purple Drank…maybe). Sanchez threw 12 TDs and 20 interceptions. This is the QB of the best team in the AFC and maybe the NFL? Rex can say it all he wants, but it doesn’t make it true. Remember another hot rookie QB, Matt Ryan? His QB ratings each year: ’08 – 88, ’09 – 81 – and that was with expanded talent around him. Teams had a year of tape to learn from and study. I think the combination of the hype and too many off-season moves where winners and leaders (Alan Faneca, Thomas Jones) being replaced with unproven or troublemaking but talented players (Antonio Cromartie, Santonio Holmes) could be too much for the Jets. With the Jets failing that leaves the usual suspects to fill their void. The Patriots will be the same ol’, same ol’ team:  great passing game, questionable run game and defense but a coach and a (actual premier) QB to lead the way. The sleeper will be the Dolphins, who are essentially the Jets with less publicity. Solid young QB, solid running game, upgraded offseason passing game (B-Marsh) and defense (Karlos Dansby). As for the Bills, well they are a short 9 months from being in prime position to draft Jake Locker so….good for them.

AFC East Winner: Patriots (10-6)

Wild Card: Dolphins (9-7)

Actual Winner: Patriots (14-2)

Actual Wild Card: Jets (11-5)

Not the worst start for me. I did successfully pick the Division winner, though I low-balled their win total by as many wins as the Broncos had this entire season (wiping away tear). All of that anti-Jets ranting looks marginally less brilliant. Though I still stand by most of it (except for one thing – sorry Santonio). It would be fascinating to see Mark Sanchez’s passer rating by quarter. I would bet that his 4^th quarter rating is at least 10 points higher than any other quarter. He just finds a way to win. It may be ugly, but he is successful. Any high school girl can see that.

As for the Dolphins….would it make a difference if I thought J-Lo’s ownership of the Dolphins, her stint as judge on America’s Got Talent and her apparent Benjamin Button disease in which she gets hotter and her marriage more inexplicable each year meant that 2010 would be the year of J-Lo and the Dolphins? No? Ok, fine. I whiffed. Chad Henne sucks.

2011 Prediction: Ok, Rex Ryan, I give in. Your out-of-control ego and even more out-of-control eating are too much for me. I haven’t believed in you or your team for two years and both years you have made the AFC title game. I give up, you win. In 2011, the Jets will go 16-0 in the regular season and win every game 47-0.  I shall never doubt Rex again.

2011 Winner: Jets (Wild Card: Patriots)

AFC North

Much like the Jets in the AFC East, the Ravens are getting all the hype in the AFC North. With expanded targets for Joe Flacco (Anquan Boldin and now T.J. Houshmandzadeh), a consistent defense and Ray Rice and Willis McGahee at running back there are few questions about the Ravens outside of ‘do I really want to own any Ravens on my fantasy team’? Well, I own Ray Rice if that answers your question. With Big Ben sitting in figurative jail for the first 4 weeks of the season (lucky for him it is only figurative), the Steelers could start out slow and never quite catch up, especially with a defense I still don’t trust – presence of insured hair or not. The Bengals have 2 separate VH1 reality shows on their roster but might be better off if that meant Flavor Flav and Brett Michaels were slated to start. I just can’t trust the Bengals. Whether it is not believing Cedric Benson can duplicate last year, Carson Palmer can play solidly again or T.O. and Ochocinco can both be fine with reduced targets, something just doesn’t quite click for me on this team. If the team starts out 0 and 2 thanks to a tougher Conference champ schedule that starts at New England and then home for Baltimore, we could quickly spiral into an ugly, ugly situation. Which will just make Ochoncinco feel like he is back on his reality show. There might be another team in this division…hmmm…I just can’t recall who it is right now.

AFC North Winner: Ravens (11-5)

Actual Winner: Steelers (12-4)

Actual Wild Card: Ravens (12-4)

So I underestimated the Steelers ability to withstand Big Ben’s suspension (as well as the Steelers fans ability to put things like morals and values ahead of winning football games). The comment about the defense looks especially foolish…right up to the Super Bowl. Better late than never, I guess. Thanks Aaron. I also overestimated Joe Flacco’s ability to take advantage of his new targets and the Ravens offense as a whole. Thank god, the rest of my fantasy team was stacked so I could still win my league with Rice underperforming. And yes, this was just another pathetic attempt to interject my fantasy team winning its league for the first time. Hey, if we are looking back let’s look at all the highlights of the season. Which is why I don’t need to mention the Browns or Bengals further.  

2011 Prediction: Another too-close-to-call between the Steelers and the Ravens. But, the Packers showed how to beat the Steelers. Unfortunately, the Ravens aren’t equipped to take advantage of those exposed weaknesses. It’s like when Ray Lewis sees a guy outside of a club wearing body armor. He knows what he wants to do to him, but isn’t equipped to do it.

2011 Winner: Steelers

AFC South

It seems like the Colts have owned the AFC South for decades. But that isn’t true. The AFC South wasn’t even created until 2002. See, it hasn’t even been a decade. Do I think their reign ends this year? Umm, no. People like to try and draw attention to themselves on the internet by being the loudest, most obnoxious and most different (hey it worked for Glenn Beck). While I have been known to go a little over-the-top on occasion (all completely warranted for the record), above everything else I am rational. So, maybe I am destined to have 8 readers forever. I would rather have 8 readers and be correct in picking the Colts than sky-rocket up the google rankings by picking the Texans to go to the Super Bowl while also claiming Peyton Manning was the real father of Kourtney Kardashian’s baby. Until the Colts show sort of chink in their regular season armor (let’s not discuss the playoffs just yet), I have to pick them. Speaking of the Texans, I hate to be the oil spill in the gulf of expectations but I am not buying it. A harder schedule thanks to drawing the NFC East and placing 2^nd in the division last year, an inconsistent QB (last year: 8 games with QB rating over 100; 6 games under 90) and an unproven running game all scream to me ‘unfulfilled expectations’.  The Titans however are getting no pre-season press outside of the fantasy magazines putting Chris Johnson #1 overall. Two years ago the Titans went 13-3 and last year the Titans had a 2,000 yard rusher and their only losses after Week #6 were to the Colts and Chargers. With a full off-season knowing he is the MAN, Vince Young could have a surprisingly solid year. Keep CJ healthy, find a go-to wide receiver (I have my fantasy league money on Kenny Britt) and the Titans could be the surprise team of the year. The Jaguars could have drafted Tim Tebow and at least gotten some publicity. They didn’t so I will give them what they want – to be ignored.

AFC South Winner: Colts (11-5)

Wild Card: Titans (10-6)

Actual Winner: Colts (10-6)

I really went .500 in the AFC South. Another division winner called correctly.  And I really went out on a limb with this one. I also called the epic disappointment that everyone who was hyping the Texans in the pre-season felt. But really that was so obvious, I am almost embarrassed to have gotten it so correct. Just like people will say when Justin Bieber shaves his head and moves to a Llama farm in Chile in 2022 with his ‘friend’ Gunther. On the other hand, I ignored the once-every-five-years inexplicable resurrection of the Jags. They should just rename their team the Locusts, since the come from nowhere on a regular basis and wreak havoc before just as suddenly disappearing. Remember this when people are hyping them in August. The Titans really hurt me though. I was all-in on the Titans. And then VY went off the rails again and we were subjected to the Kerry Collins experience.

2011 Predictions: If the Colts can win in 2010 when every receiver who has even seen a Peyton Manning commercial was hurt, how can we expect them to lose next year? Remember the Jags will disappear again, the Titans are a mess and the Texans are the Texans. For the record, change a few of these proper names and the entire preceding paragraph can be applied to the 2012 Presidential election.

2011 Winner: Colts

AFC West

Is this finally the year? For all outward appearances the Chargers got worse in the offseason. They lost Cromartie, Jamal Williams and maybe Vincent Jackson. Unfortunately they kept Norv Turner and Shawne Merriman is another year removed from his PED-fueled prime. The Chargers just scream ‘collapse’. But I think they hold on for another year. Not because of their greatness but mostly because of the widespread mediocrity across the rest of the AFC West. I think the Broncos are better than they are given credit for in Vegas. I don’t think they are any worse than their 8-8 record last year when they played a tougher schedule (replacing NFC East with NFC West is like going from the SEC to the Mountain West). With Orton under center they at least have an offensive leader. They have also tried to re-design the defense to fit in the 3-4 scheme better than the undersized players who got run over at the end of last year. I think they are as good or better with the loss of Marshall who took his talents to South Beach in a trendsetting move among athletic egotists. Orton became too fixated on a guy that isn’t a playmaker. Now Orton will spread it around and hopefully one or two wide receivers will do more than catch an 8-yard pass and give back 3-yards before being tackled. Their problem will be the run game. Both generating their own and stopping the other team. Some are picking the Chiefs as a sleeper this year. More like coma pick. I have no idea what anyone sees in the Chiefs. They have an overwhelmed head coach, two new coordinators that have done nothing but fail since they left the Belichickian womb, an astoundingly mediocre quarterback, two ‘ok’ running backs and an ok defense. If the Chiefs get within one game of being .500 I will go get that Charlie Weis lap band surgery. They are at best slightly below average. If there is a sleeper pick in the AFC West, it might be the (gulp) Raiders. With a competent QB for the first time in nearly a decade, some young skill players with potential and a consistently solid defense, this is one of those teams that could get inspired by an emotional head coach and make a surprising run. I just think they are still a year and a playmaker or two away. So, the Chargers win the division again in what looks like the most Rock-Paper-Scissors even division in the land.

AFC West Winner: Chargers (9-7)

Actual Winner: Chiefs (10-6)

Boy I guess I am lucky that the Chiefs were 4 games over .500 or I would be calling a Doctor for an estimate on that surgery. On first glance this was probably the worst prediction I have ever written. But let me take a Palin-like swipe at making this sound like a good prediction. I did call the fall of the Chargers. I also accurately predicted Kyle Orton’s solid passing year for the Broncos. And I think we can all agree that the Raiders are an up-and-coming team.  So it isn’t all bad. Now about that Chiefs pick. Well, I still don’t know how they won 10 games. I saw them get crushed by the Broncos in Denver. No team that gives up 49 points to the Broncos should win 10 games. In fact, I think the Union should get that put in the new CBA.

2011 Prediction: You may find this hard to believe but I don’t think the Chiefs will repeat. I will give you a minute to catch your breath from that shocker. But then who steps in? Sadly, I will go back to the Chargers. I am really close to picking the Raiders but just can’t do it because…well…it’s the Raiders.

Playoffs:

Wild Card:

Dolphins @ Chargers: Last year a young QB with a solid defense and good running game from the AFC East came into San Diego and surprised the Chargers in the playoffs. With Norv leading the way it is Déjà vu all over again.

Titans @ Patriots: the Patriots are getting old. Can the wily veterans hang with the young speedsters from the Titans? Not any more. 

Divisional Playoffs:

Dolphins @ Colts: Manning picks apart the Dolphins like a Japanese fisherman in The Cove.

Titans @ Ravens: Titans defense just not enough to hold back Ravens potent offense. Wow, that is a sentence I never expected to write. Maybe I should throw in a Flacco unibrow joke just for old times’ sake.

AFC Championship:

Colts @ Ravens: This game is won by the home team – as their past two playoff games have been. Ravens won in 2009 in Baltimore while the Colts won in 2010 in the Oil Can. For this scenario, let’s assume Ravens get the homefield and the win. Why? I don’t know.  Let’s say cold weather and wind keeps Manning from getting the passing game going while Flacco plays well thanks to the added insulation stretching across his forehead (there it is).

AFC Champions: Ravens

Actual AFC Champion: Steelers

Breakdown of my playoff predictions:

Pros: Patriots fall at home to young team. AFC West champ loses at home in Wild Card round. AFC Champion is a tough, defensive team from the AFC North. That joke about the Peyton Manning and the Dolphins.

Cons: Overestimated Colts and Ravens offenses. The phrase “Titans versus Ravens AFC Divisional playoff game”.  The phrase “Ravens’ potent offense”. Basically anything and everything associated with Baltimore and the Ravens up to but not including Edgar Allen Poe.

2011 Prediction: There is always turn-over in the NFL, especially as the best teams start to get older. Some team could come out of nowhere and go deep into the playoffs while teams like the Colts and Patriots start to show their age (I can’t believe I am saying this, but the Raiders are a prime candidate for this). Or nothing changes and the AFC playoffs look exactly like they did this year. It could really go either way. There is only one guarantee about next season.

2011 Winner: Every Fan.

If there is a 2011 season, I don’t care who wins as long as they play the game. 

From deep down in my stomach, with every inch of me, I pure, straight hate you. But goddammit, do I respect you!

- Wes Mantooth,  Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy

Today, I know how Wes feels.

With 4 divisional playoff games, it should be the best weekend of the year for The Hierarchy of Hate. Yet, in 3 of the 4 games, I really dislike one team, so there is no debate at all as to which team I will be cheering for.

I may respect their success but I can still pure, straight hate them.

It started in the pre-season when we laid out our most hated teams of the season. As you will see my two NFL choices are both playing this weekend. So how can I cheer for either of them? My reasons for hate in those warm, innocent days of late summer remain today. If anything as the temperatures cooled, my hate heated up.

The Pittsburgh fan-bases spent the summer ‘outraged’ at the antics of their quarterback, a guy who treats women like Michael Vick treats dogs, and Sarah Palin treats dignity. But the moment Big Ben took his hands off of co-eds who don’t want him touching them and put them back under center, all was forgiven.

Being a sexual predator is apparently ok in the Burgh as long as you can avoid the sack and complete the 15-yard out.  

In the pre-season, I hated the Jets for their ‘look-at-me’ antics and undue attention. Umm, how has that changed? Rex Ryan only stops being annoying when he has his wife’s toes in his mouth. Antonio Cromartie and Bart Scott have apparently taken the worst antics of their coach and decided to adopt that trait by calling attention to themselves with stupid comments. I hope that is the only trait they borrow from Rex.

 Just in case, the Jets cheerleaders should always wear socks around the Jets campus.

As for the other game in which my THH was set long ago, we have my 2^nd hometown playing the least likable former Bronco not named Bill Romanowski. You know you are a pretty miserable person when even Rick Reilly can’t find something nice to say about you.

 Jay Cutler is the first cancer that Reilly has met that he couldn’t turn into a heartwarming 800 word essay. That is impressive.

And he is playing against the underdogs from the Emerald city; a city where I have spent half of nearly every week for the last 3 years. To say, that this time has coincided with a low point in Seattle sports is like saying the women that go on the Bachelor embarrass their parents a little bit.

The Mariners have been the worst team in the majors twice. The Seahawks have been one of the worst teams in the NFL. The University of Washington was the worst team in NCAA 2 years ago. The SuperSonics moved to Oklahoma City and became one of the more likable young teams in the NBA. Seattle needs this win.

That leaves one last game. So let’s give it the full THH treatment. Complete with a theme.

Packers @ Falcons – Each team has a somewhat disgraced former quarterback that started when these teams last met in the playoffs. Which QB would you cheer on if they were playing today?

Choosing between Brett Favre and Michael Vick is like asking me which coach I like more that did analysis before the BCS championship game last week: Urban Meyer or Nick Saban. I dislike them each greatly but for different reasons.

I am one of those softies that gets a lump in his throat every time he sees one of those ASPCA commercials (damn you Sarah McLachlan), so I am sorry if I can’t suddenly look at Michael Vick as a nice redemption story. I think he is, was and always will be a psychopath. I just don’t think spending a year and a half in jail is going to teach anyone that something is morally wrong – you either already know that or you never will. It can teach you that it is a societal wrong but I don’t think it can teach you basic right and wrong. If you once thought it was perfectly normal to torture dogs, jail won’t change that.

As for Favre, the only torturing he has done is to the American public with his constant, pathetic, Kardashian-level need for attention. Thanks to his accomplices in the media we have all been subjected to more, unnecessary Favre coverage over the last several years than anyone of us would want over several lifetimes. We have all suffered through more teary eyed press conferences than anyone outside of the Werder household can even count. We’ve had “OJ-in-the-Bronco-esque” live coverage of him arriving in Minneapolis. We’ve seen text pictures of his junk and, more disturbingly, him fondling his junk while wearing Crocs. I mean Crocs? Seriously?

Amazingly, and for probably the first time in the history of this web-site, I am siding with Favre on this one. Lots of players have tried to maintain a faint grasp on to the spotlight far too long. Remember Jerry Rice with the Seahawks and his training camp with the Broncos? Emmitt Smith with the Cardinals? Jamie Moyer with Toronto, Seattle (the 2^nd time) and the Phillies?

Few athletes, accustomed to the adoration that swirled around Favre for over a decade would find it easy to walk away. Beside, Favre can’t be fully at blame. Would he be nearly as obnoxious and annoying if ESPN didn’t report breathlessly on everything he did or if announcers found no fault with him in anything? Favre didn’t force all of the media to speak of him like Dick Vitale talking about Duke basketball.

If you hadn’t heard ‘objective reporters and journalists’ say a negative thing about you in 10 years, wouldn’t you also start to believe you could do no wrong and are more important than the league you play in?

Vick on the other hand has no one else to blame. I don’t care if he is ‘redeemed’. No one will ever convince me that he has changed.

Sorry, Falcons. I know it is a little unfair to cheer against you because you once employed a psychopath that you have since tried to exorcise from your organization history like USC did Reggie Bush.

But, that’s how we roll here at the THH.

Go, Pack go.

Life is all about confidence.

Ok, maybe not all about confidence. Skill, intelligence, hard work and luck (lots of luck) play parts too. But confidence is still important.

Some woman wrote a book called The Secret and made millions and millions of dollars. Having not read it, I understand that the main message of this book is that if you go all Stuart Smalley on your life, you will get everything you want.

Talk about confidence. Confidence is writing a book of relatively useless, meaningless advice and knowing it will make you millions.

Even more than life, football, and betting on football, is all about confidence. The teams remaining in the playoffs now are all relatively equal skill and preparation, so it comes down to which team believes it will win more. Which team believes in itself. Which team is more confident.

All of this psycho-babble pre-amble is also a direct result of my confidence. Of my 8 Wild card picks last week, I won on 6 of them. I am feeling pretty confident myself right now and apparently this lucky streak has given me the keys to understanding the universe.

There is a thin line between confident and cocky.

(Just ask Rex Ryan. He will respond because (1) he loves to hear himself speak and (2) he will be thrilled you used his name in the same sentence as ‘thin’.)

So, now that I apparently believe I have some higher level knowledge, let’s dive into this week’s picks, both 1^st half bets and full game.

Ravens @ Steelers

(1^st Half: Steelers -3, Full game: Steelers -3.5)

Apparently, Vegas takes it seriously that the last several games in this series have been 3 point games – putting both the first half and full game spread in that range.

There are few things in the world of football, one can be truly confident about, but believing that this will be a close game that comes down right down to the end is one of them. Low scoring, defensive, cold. These aren’t just used to describe Condoleezza Rice, they also describe this rivalry.

Last week the Ravens scored 30 points on the Chiefs, one of their 5 highest scoring games of the season. They come into this game confident that they can win on the road and score points. Sure, much of their offensive success was as a result of the Chiefs offense collapsing faster than a Chilean mine shaft in the 3^rd quarter with a number of turnovers but that still doesn’t change the confidence the Ravens have.

Look at the Ravens leader Ray Lewis. He has 2 career playoff sacks. Two! That’s it. He has almost as many post-season murder indictments as sacks, yet every time he is the 3^rd person to pile on a tackle, he truly believes he is the best player on the field that day. That kind of confidence flows through to his teammates.

As always this game will be low-scoring but building on the momentum from last week the Ravens are able to move the ball early. The Steelers on the other hand will struggle on offense. Partly because they don’t have speed in their running game like Jamaal Charles to bother the Ravens and partly because newly engaged Ben Roethlisberger will be pre-occupied thinking about the Tiger Woods-esque press conference he will have to give in a few years where he discusses his ‘transgressions’ and being ‘unfaithful’.

At the half, I take the Ravens. The line should be a pick-em but since it isn’t, take the points. Say Ravens 10, Steelers 6.

In the second half the Steelers will be able knock off the rust and come out strong, like Big Ben in a college bar. As always this will come down to one fateful mistake in the end. This time, I think the mistake is by the Steelers. Whether it is personal foul on James Harrison, clipping penalty on Hines Ward, fumble by Rashard Mendenhall or interception by Big Ben, I think the Ravens hold on to not just cover, but win out-right.

Final: 20-17 Ravens

Jets @ Patriots

(1^st Half: New England -6, Full game: New England -9)

As mentioned above, there is one thing Rex Ryan loves more than feet and that is listening to himself talk. It may make me loathe him. It may make you loathe him. But it makes his players love him.

He is the Sarah Palin of the football world. He says whatever he wants and doesn’t care or doesn’t understand about the consequences. This makes some people adore him. It makes others hate him. But as long as they are talking about him, he wins. Even when he loses; when his team fails or gets crushed, in his mind he is still a winner.

That sort of attitude rubs off on his team. Mark Sanchez may look marginally more competent than Jimmy Clausen for the first 54 minutes of a football game but can put it all behind him for one last drive to win the game. Braylon Edwards can drop 5 passes but will make the one catch his team needs. Antonio Cromartie can fail more often than his prophylactic collection but make the long kick-off return when it is absolutely necessary to start the late drive in good field position. This all comes from their coach.

As does the uncomfortable staring any time they are caught barefoot in the locker room.

The last time these teams met, it was an absolute blowout by the Patriots. But I don’t see that happening again. The Jets have had too much playoff success the last 2 years to roll over and die this time.

The Patriots will come out and plan to pick up right where they left off on that Monday night massacre back in December. I think they have some success and stake an early lead.

Say, 17-7 at the half (take the Pats, giving 6).

At the half, Rex watches some game film and a ‘How-to give yourself a home pedicure’ video and makes adjustments to get the Jets back into it in the second half. Sanchez starts connecting with Santonio Holmes; Shonn Greene starts gaining real yardage on the ground and the defense starts getting pressure on Tom Brady.

In the end though, I am just not confident Sanchez can pull out the win in Foxborough. The Jets cover but lose.

31-24 Patriots

Take the Jets +9. With Confidence

Saturday evening I got very confused when I saw a picture of a smiling Taylor Potts holding a trophy for the Ticket City Bowl. Some of the confusion came from the fact that a Bowl game was played in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Day but was not the Cotton Bowl. But more came from Potts himself. Why was he smiling? Hadn’t Texas Tech lost to Northwestern?

I then realized my mistake. Texas Tech had won (they were playing the Big Ten after all) but Northwestern had covered the spread.

With a series of games being played in which I had no true interest, Turner, the Shadow and I decided to create a pool for all the games played, picking each winner versus the spread. I was so much more invested in that pool than the outcomes of the games played on the field I actually confused a ‘cover’ with a win.

The same thing would occur later in the UConn/Oklahoma game. As the announcers talked about UConn needing to get aggressive, losing by 14, all I could think was “no, you are covering. Run the ball. Play conservative. Don’t give up a big play.”

Instead they threw a pick-6 that ended the game, lost me the pool and made Randy Edsall declare the next day that taking the Maryland head coaching job was ‘a dream’. Now that is a bad statement about the Big East.

As the day progressed, Turner and I started wondering about other bets. So I journeyed out to pregame.com where they not only consolidate the spread and over/under lines from several sites and casinos but also provide 1^st and 2^nd half spreads and over/unders (that update in real time).

Basically, it is the Amazon.com for sports betting addicts.

On our annual Vegas trips, I have fallen in love, with half bets. If you have a good feeling about a team starting slow, or pulling away in the second half, these bets are a great way to play a game when the full game spread is too difficult to call.

This week, I have made a resolution for the New Year. Through the rest of the NFL playoffs, I am going all out. Each week I will pick each game against the spread for both the 1^st half and full game and of course rope Turner and Shadow in for a THH of each weekend.

I have made the conscious decision to not open an on-line gambling account or find a bookie because I know that the ability to wager from my couch is too tempting for me to resist and I like still having a house and both my knee caps. So, this will be my gambling. I will wager reputation as a football analyst, which in reality is about the same stakes as penny slots.

AFC – Wildcard:

NY Jets at Indianapolis Colts

(1^st half: Colts -1.5, Full game: Colts -3)

I have been very open in my disdain for the Jets all season as well as my shock that Rex Ryan is apparently not pregnant (I am still not convinced; haven’t you ever seen “I Didn’t Know I was Pregnant”?). I never jumped on the Sanchise express even before it went about 2.5 games without scoring a touchdown. The Jets have a lot of underachieving talent that may or may not show up for this game. Can you really trust LaDainian Tomlinson in the playoffs? Or Braylon Edwards? I trust Antonio Cromartie’s 6 oldest kids to make more of an impact than Edwards or Tomlinson (not his youngest three though; kids named ‘Just turned three’, ‘About Two and a Half’ and ‘The Newborn’ aren’t to be trusted).

 I think the Jets get conservative on offense afraid of the harm Sanchez could do and the Colts counter by loading up to stop the run and take away Santonio Holmes; daring the remaining passing game to beat them.

The Colts offense, will once again find some random white receiver to go out and catch 14 passes. I like that the Colts had to win last week to make the playoffs. I think that momentum carries over into this week.

With the conservative Jets offense it stays close early, but ultimately the Colts machine grinds the Jets down and pulls away like Rex Ryan in an all-you-can-eat contest. Take the Colts (-1.5) in the first half (think 10-7) and then again over the whole game. Maybe 27-17.

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs

(1^st Half: Baltimore -1, Full game: Baltimore -3)

I think of this as the Failure Bowl.

Both at quarterback, where neither QB was a starter in college (Cassell sat behind Matt Leinart; Joe Flacco transferred from Pitt after not beating out Tayler Palko) and at offensive coordinator (Cam Cameron in Baltimore flamed out spectacularly as Dolphins head coach but not nearly as spectacularly as Charlie Weis failed at Notre Dame).

Essentially this game is the Island of Misft Toys in the sea of playoff teams. Which sort of makes my Yukon Cornelius, constantly searching for silver and gold yet only finding the Abominable Snow Monster instead (you have seen Weis, right?).

The Chiefs have not played in a playoff game in several years and it has been about a generation since they won a playoff game. Let’s just say Joe Montana was involved and Kurt Cobain was still alive (and presumably depressed). Kids, ask your parents about Montana and Cobain.

I think the delirium of actually seeing a playoff game will help the Chiefs jump out to an early lead. I am guessing Dwayne Bowe sneaks past the Ravens secondary or Jamal Charles busts off a long run. Much to the chagrin of Dolphins fans, Cameron rarely gets off to a strong start. So take the Chiefs with the first half lead.

In the second half, I expect the Ravens defense to shut down the Chiefs offense while Flacco, Ray Rice and the veteran set of receivers slowly erase any lead and pull away to not just win but more importantly cover.

Because for all of us not in Baltimore or Kansas, the spread is much more important.

With the first college football weekend behind us, it is time to turn our attention to the big boys. The NFL kicks off on Thursday night in New Orleans but before the games get all official, it is time for that annual rite of passage: the season preview.

Even though no football analyst has any idea what is going to happen this season, it is some sort of by-law that each must write a preview, projecting how the season will play out. Sure, they will all be wrong and makes readers begin to question why they put so much faith on these analysts but a rule is a rule.

With the dream of someday being a professional football analyst mocked and ridiculed by my readership, I too am here today to present my 4^th annual ‘Only AFC Preview You Need’. So named not because it is better than the others (just look through my archives if you don’t believe me) but because they are all equally worthless.

AFC East

Everyone and their half-blind 7 year old niece is picking the Jets to win this division. However, these are the same people (less a few of the nieces I think) that constantly tell us how a premier quarterback is the key to winning in the NFL. You can say a lot of things about Mark Sanchez: he dates hot women, he has a cool nickname (the Sanchise), he does a good imitation of other people’s strange walks, etc. but one thing you can’t say is that he is a premier quarterback. Last year, he had a QB rating of 63. That is almost in the Jamarcus range (pre-Purple Drank…maybe). Sanchez threw 12 TDs and 20 interceptions. This is the QB of the best team in the AFC and maybe the NFL? Rex can say it all he wants, but it doesn’t make it true. Remember another hot rookie QB, Matt Ryan? His QB ratings each year: ’08 – 88, ’09 – 81 – and that was with expanded talent around him. Teams had a year of tape to learn from and study. I think the combination of the hype and too many off-season moves where winners and leaders (Alan Faneca, Thomas Jones) being replaced with unproven or troublemaking but talented players (Antonio Cromartie, Santonio Holmes) could be too much for the Jets. With the Jets failing that leaves the usual suspects to fill their void. The Patriots will be the same ol’, same ol’ team:  great passing game, questionable run game and defense but a coach and a (actual premier) QB to lead the way. The sleeper will be the Dolphins, who are essentially the Jets with less publicity. Solid young QB, solid running game, upgraded offseason passing game (B-Marsh) and defense (Karlos Dansby). As for the Bills, well they are a short 9 months from being in prime position to draft Jake Locker so….good for them.

AFC East Winner: Patriots (10-6)

Wild Card: Dolphins (9-7)

AFC North

Much like the Jets in the AFC East, the Ravens are getting all the hype in the AFC North. With expanded targets for Joe Flacco (Anquan Boldin and now T.J. Houshmandzadeh), a consistent defense and Ray Rice and Willis McGahee at running back there are few questions about the Ravens outside of ‘do I really want to own any Ravens on my fantasy team’? Well, I own Ray Rice if that answers your question. With Big Ben sitting in figurative jail for the first 4 weeks of the season (lucky for him it is only figurative), the Steelers could start out slow and never quite catch up, especially with a defense I still don’t trust – presence of insured hair or not. The Bengals have 2 separate VH1 reality shows on their roster but might be better off if that meant Flavor Flav and Brett Michaels were slated to start. I just can’t trust the Bengals. Whether it is not believing Cedric Benson can duplicate last year, Carson Palmer can play solidly again or T.O. and Ochocinco can both be fine with reduced targets, something just doesn’t quite click for me on this team. If the team starts out 0 and 2 thanks to a tougher Conference champ schedule that starts at New England and then home for Baltimore, we could quickly spiral into an ugly, ugly situation. Which will just make Ochoncinco feel like he is back on his reality show. There might be another team in this division…hmmm…I just can’t recall who it is right now.

AFC North Winner: Ravens (11-5)

AFC South

It seems like the Colts have owned the AFC South for decades. But that isn’t true. The AFC South wasn’t even created until 2002. See, it hasn’t even been a decade. Do I think their reign ends this year? Umm, no. People like to try and draw attention to themselves on the internet by being the loudest, most obnoxious and most different (hey it worked for Glenn Beck). While I have been known to go a little over-the-top on occasion (all completely warranted for the record), above everything else I am rational. So, maybe I am destined to have 8 readers forever. I would rather have 8 readers and be correct in picking the Colts than sky-rocket up the google rankings by picking the Texans to go to the Super Bowl while also claiming Peyton Manning was the real father of Kourtney Kardashian’s baby. Until the Colts show sort of chink in their regular season armor (let’s not discuss the playoffs just yet), I have to pick them. Speaking of the Texans, I hate to be the oil spill in the gulf of expectations but I am not buying it. A harder schedule thanks to drawing the NFC East and placing 2^nd in the division last year, an inconsistent QB (last year: 8 games with QB rating over 100; 6 games under 90) and an unproven running game all scream to me ‘unfulfilled expectations’.  The Titans however are getting no pre-season press outside of the fantasy magazines putting Chris Johnson #1 overall. Two years ago the Titans went 13-3 and last year the Titans had a 2,000 yard rusher and their only losses after Week #6 were to the Colts and Chargers. With a full off-season knowing he is the MAN, Vince Young could have a surprisingly solid year. Keep CJ healthy, find a go-to wide receiver (I have my fantasy league money on Kenny Britt) and the Titans could be the surprise team of the year. The Jaguars could have drafted Tim Tebow and at least gotten some publicity. They didn’t so I will give them what they want – to be ignored.

AFC South Winner: Colts (11-5)

Wild Card: Titans (10-6)

AFC West

Is this finally the year? For all outward appearances the Chargers got worse in the offseason. They lost Cromartie, Jamal Williams and maybe Vincent Jackson. Unfortunately they kept Norv Turner and Shawne Merriman is another year removed from his PED-fueled prime. The Chargers just scream ‘collapse’. But I think they hold on for another year. Not because of their greatness but mostly because of the widespread mediocrity across the rest of the AFC West. I think the Broncos are better than they are given credit for in Vegas. I don’t think they are any worse than their 8-8 record last year when they played a tougher schedule (replacing NFC East with NFC West is like going from the SEC to the Mountain West). With Orton under center they at least have an offensive leader. They have also tried to re-design the defense to fit in the 3-4 scheme better than the undersized players who got run over at the end of last year. I think they are as good or better with the loss of Marshall who took his talents to South Beach in a trendsetting move among athletic egotists. Orton became too fixated on a guy that isn’t a playmaker. Now Orton will spread it around and hopefully one or two wide receivers will do more than catch an 8-yard pass and give back 3-yards before being tackled. Their problem will be the run game. Both generating their own and stopping the other team. Some are picking the Chiefs as a sleeper this year. More like coma pick. I have no idea what anyone sees in the Chiefs. They have an overwhelmed head coach, two new coordinators that have done nothing but fail since they left the Belichickian womb, an astoundingly mediocre quarterback, two ‘ok’ running backs and an ok defense. If the Chiefs get within one game of being .500 I will go get that Charlie Weis lap band surgery. They are at best slightly below average. If there is a sleeper pick in the AFC West, it might be the (gulp) Raiders. With a competent QB for the first time in nearly a decade, some young skill players with potential and a consistently solid defense, this is one of those teams that could get inspired by an emotional head coach and make a surprising run. I just think they are still a year and a playmaker or two away. So, the Chargers win the division again in what looks like the most Rock-Paper-Scissors even division in the land.

AFC West Winner: Chargers (9-7)

Playoffs:

Wild Card:

Dolphins @ Chargers: Last year a young QB with a solid defense and good running game from the AFC East came into San Diego and surprised the Chargers in the playoffs. With Norv leading the way it is Déjà vu all over again.

Titans @ Patriots: the Patriots are getting old. Can the wily veterans hang with the young speedsters from the Titans? Not any more. 

Divisional Playoffs:

Dolphins @ Colts: Manning picks apart the Dolphins like a Japanese fisherman in The Cove.

Titans @ Ravens: Titans defense just not enough to hold back Ravens potent offense. Wow, that is a sentence I never expected to write. Maybe I should throw in a Flacco unibrow joke just for old times’ sake.

AFC Championship:

Colts @ Ravens: This game is won by the home team – as their past two playoff games have been. Ravens won in 2009 in Baltimore while the Colts won in 2010 in the Oil Can. For this scenario, let’s assume Ravens get the homefield and the win. Why? I don’t know.  Let’s say cold weather and wind keeps Manning from getting the passing game going while Flacco plays well thanks to the added insulation stretching across his forehead (there it is).

AFC Champions: Ravens

I really didn’t want this to be my AFC title game. It is too boring. Too predictable. Too mainstream. But sometimes it is better to be right than be different.