With the first college football weekend behind us, it is time to turn our attention to the big boys. The NFL kicks off on Thursday night in New Orleans but before the games get all official, it is time for that annual rite of passage: the season preview.
Even though no football analyst has any idea what is going to happen this season, it is some sort of by-law that each must write a preview, projecting how the season will play out. Sure, they will all be wrong and makes readers begin to question why they put so much faith on these analysts but a rule is a rule.
With the dream of someday being a professional football analyst mocked and ridiculed by my readership, I too am here today to present my 4th annual ‘Only AFC Preview You Need’. So named not because it is better than the others (just look through my archives if you don’t believe me) but because they are all equally worthless.
AFC East
Everyone and their half-blind 7 year old niece is picking the Jets to win this division. However, these are the same people (less a few of the nieces I think) that constantly tell us how a premier quarterback is the key to winning in the NFL. You can say a lot of things about Mark Sanchez: he dates hot women, he has a cool nickname (the Sanchise), he does a good imitation of other people’s strange walks, etc. but one thing you can’t say is that he is a premier quarterback. Last year, he had a QB rating of 63. That is almost in the Jamarcus range (pre-Purple Drank…maybe). Sanchez threw 12 TDs and 20 interceptions. This is the QB of the best team in the AFC and maybe the NFL? Rex can say it all he wants, but it doesn’t make it true. Remember another hot rookie QB, Matt Ryan? His QB ratings each year: ’08 – 88, ’09 – 81 – and that was with expanded talent around him. Teams had a year of tape to learn from and study. I think the combination of the hype and too many off-season moves where winners and leaders (Alan Faneca, Thomas Jones) being replaced with unproven or troublemaking but talented players (Antonio Cromartie, Santonio Holmes) could be too much for the Jets. With the Jets failing that leaves the usual suspects to fill their void. The Patriots will be the same ol’, same ol’ team: great passing game, questionable run game and defense but a coach and a (actual premier) QB to lead the way. The sleeper will be the Dolphins, who are essentially the Jets with less publicity. Solid young QB, solid running game, upgraded offseason passing game (B-Marsh) and defense (Karlos Dansby). As for the Bills, well they are a short 9 months from being in prime position to draft Jake Locker so….good for them.
AFC East Winner: Patriots (10-6)
Wild Card: Dolphins (9-7)
AFC North
Much like the Jets in the AFC East, the Ravens are getting all the hype in the AFC North. With expanded targets for Joe Flacco (Anquan Boldin and now T.J. Houshmandzadeh), a consistent defense and Ray Rice and Willis McGahee at running back there are few questions about the Ravens outside of ‘do I really want to own any Ravens on my fantasy team’? Well, I own Ray Rice if that answers your question. With Big Ben sitting in figurative jail for the first 4 weeks of the season (lucky for him it is only figurative), the Steelers could start out slow and never quite catch up, especially with a defense I still don’t trust – presence of insured hair or not. The Bengals have 2 separate VH1 reality shows on their roster but might be better off if that meant Flavor Flav and Brett Michaels were slated to start. I just can’t trust the Bengals. Whether it is not believing Cedric Benson can duplicate last year, Carson Palmer can play solidly again or T.O. and Ochocinco can both be fine with reduced targets, something just doesn’t quite click for me on this team. If the team starts out 0 and 2 thanks to a tougher Conference champ schedule that starts at New England and then home for Baltimore, we could quickly spiral into an ugly, ugly situation. Which will just make Ochoncinco feel like he is back on his reality show. There might be another team in this division…hmmm…I just can’t recall who it is right now.
AFC North Winner: Ravens (11-5)
AFC South
It seems like the Colts have owned the AFC South for decades. But that isn’t true. The AFC South wasn’t even created until 2002. See, it hasn’t even been a decade. Do I think their reign ends this year? Umm, no. People like to try and draw attention to themselves on the internet by being the loudest, most obnoxious and most different (hey it worked for Glenn Beck). While I have been known to go a little over-the-top on occasion (all completely warranted for the record), above everything else I am rational. So, maybe I am destined to have 8 readers forever. I would rather have 8 readers and be correct in picking the Colts than sky-rocket up the google rankings by picking the Texans to go to the Super Bowl while also claiming Peyton Manning was the real father of Kourtney Kardashian’s baby. Until the Colts show sort of chink in their regular season armor (let’s not discuss the playoffs just yet), I have to pick them. Speaking of the Texans, I hate to be the oil spill in the gulf of expectations but I am not buying it. A harder schedule thanks to drawing the NFC East and placing 2nd in the division last year, an inconsistent QB (last year: 8 games with QB rating over 100; 6 games under 90) and an unproven running game all scream to me ‘unfulfilled expectations’. The Titans however are getting no pre-season press outside of the fantasy magazines putting Chris Johnson #1 overall. Two years ago the Titans went 13-3 and last year the Titans had a 2,000 yard rusher and their only losses after Week #6 were to the Colts and Chargers. With a full off-season knowing he is the MAN, Vince Young could have a surprisingly solid year. Keep CJ healthy, find a go-to wide receiver (I have my fantasy league money on Kenny Britt) and the Titans could be the surprise team of the year. The Jaguars could have drafted Tim Tebow and at least gotten some publicity. They didn’t so I will give them what they want – to be ignored.
AFC South Winner: Colts (11-5)
Wild Card: Titans (10-6)
AFC West
Is this finally the year? For all outward appearances the Chargers got worse in the offseason. They lost Cromartie, Jamal Williams and maybe Vincent Jackson. Unfortunately they kept Norv Turner and Shawne Merriman is another year removed from his PED-fueled prime. The Chargers just scream ‘collapse’. But I think they hold on for another year. Not because of their greatness but mostly because of the widespread mediocrity across the rest of the AFC West. I think the Broncos are better than they are given credit for in Vegas. I don’t think they are any worse than their 8-8 record last year when they played a tougher schedule (replacing NFC East with NFC West is like going from the SEC to the Mountain West). With Orton under center they at least have an offensive leader. They have also tried to re-design the defense to fit in the 3-4 scheme better than the undersized players who got run over at the end of last year. I think they are as good or better with the loss of Marshall who took his talents to South Beach in a trendsetting move among athletic egotists. Orton became too fixated on a guy that isn’t a playmaker. Now Orton will spread it around and hopefully one or two wide receivers will do more than catch an 8-yard pass and give back 3-yards before being tackled. Their problem will be the run game. Both generating their own and stopping the other team. Some are picking the Chiefs as a sleeper this year. More like coma pick. I have no idea what anyone sees in the Chiefs. They have an overwhelmed head coach, two new coordinators that have done nothing but fail since they left the Belichickian womb, an astoundingly mediocre quarterback, two ‘ok’ running backs and an ok defense. If the Chiefs get within one game of being .500 I will go get that Charlie Weis lap band surgery. They are at best slightly below average. If there is a sleeper pick in the AFC West, it might be the (gulp) Raiders. With a competent QB for the first time in nearly a decade, some young skill players with potential and a consistently solid defense, this is one of those teams that could get inspired by an emotional head coach and make a surprising run. I just think they are still a year and a playmaker or two away. So, the Chargers win the division again in what looks like the most Rock-Paper-Scissors even division in the land.
AFC West Winner: Chargers (9-7)
Playoffs:
Wild Card:
Dolphins @ Chargers: Last year a young QB with a solid defense and good running game from the AFC East came into San Diego and surprised the Chargers in the playoffs. With Norv leading the way it is Déjà vu all over again.
Titans @ Patriots: the Patriots are getting old. Can the wily veterans hang with the young speedsters from the Titans? Not any more.
Divisional Playoffs:
Dolphins @ Colts: Manning picks apart the Dolphins like a Japanese fisherman in The Cove.
Titans @ Ravens: Titans defense just not enough to hold back Ravens potent offense. Wow, that is a sentence I never expected to write. Maybe I should throw in a Flacco unibrow joke just for old times’ sake.
AFC Championship:
Colts @ Ravens: This game is won by the home team – as their past two playoff games have been. Ravens won in 2009 in Baltimore while the Colts won in 2010 in the Oil Can. For this scenario, let’s assume Ravens get the homefield and the win. Why? I don’t know. Let’s say cold weather and wind keeps Manning from getting the passing game going while Flacco plays well thanks to the added insulation stretching across his forehead (there it is).
AFC Champions: Ravens
I really didn’t want this to be my AFC title game. It is too boring. Too predictable. Too mainstream. But sometimes it is better to be right than be different.
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