As we reach the One-Month-Warning to the NFL Draft, the one oasis in an NFL news world that is starting to look as desolate as the desert planet Tatooine, I think it is time to pay homage to one of my favorite annual traditions being played out right before our eyes.
The overrating of a player at a marquee position.
Every year, it seems to happen. When there seems to be no clear cut, can’t-miss prospect at one of the glamour positions in the NFL, the experts slowly hype some formally middling player until a team drafts him in the top five and are still lamenting that decision years later.
I don’t necessarily mean busts like Tony Mandarich or Ryan Leaf, those players were long held up as a top prospect and only due to extenuating circumstances (Mandarich – reliance on the Roger Clemens training routine, Leaf – being bat-sh*t crazy) kept them from achieving.
I am talking about players that were never truly good enough to be drafted as high as they were but for whatever reason in the long gap between the completion of their college careers and the draft, the analysts and experts brainwashed NFL brass into taking them. They aren’t usually as bustastic as a Mandarich or Leaf. They usually end up with mediocre careers but never reach the stardom they should given their lofty draft positions.
The poster-child for this phenomenon is Alex Smith. Drafted #1 overall by the Forty-Niners in 2005, the former Utah Ute quarterback has spent his entire career either injured or being excused for mediocre play because of constant turn-over in his offensive coaching staff. All fine reasons for not being a very good quarterback but missing the biggest one.
Smith was never that good to begin with.
A one-year wonder at Utah, who parlayed big stats from using Urban Meyer’s spread offense in the unathletic Mountain West, Smith slowly rose to be the consensus number one pick for one simple reason: the real #1 pick abdicated his spot by returning to school. Matt Leinart was destined to be that Forty-Niner pick but instead returned to school, lost the national title game, was drafted by the Cardinals and never given a chance to prove that he too could be a thoroughly mediocre pro quarterback.
Once Leinart returned to school, the Forty-Niners, already confiedent that none of the average quarterbacks already on the roster could be their quarterback for a season, convinced themselves over time that Alex Smith could become their franchise.
They still regret that decision.
(SIDEBAR: While picking Smith was clearly a mistake, take another look at that 2005 draft. How bad is the rest of the top ten? Injuries, head cases and busts. In the entire first round there are about 5 players that you would want on your team today, just six years later. Of course, it is just salt on the wound of Forty-Niner nation that one of those guys is another quarterback. From the Bay Area. Who just won the Super Bowl MVP. But setting that epic Matt Millen-esque error aside, there aren’t a lot of other players that could be argued who should have gone #1 overall.
For the record, at the time I was arguing for the Niners to draft Braylon Edwards. Yes, this was before I would draft him 3 straight times in fantasy while cursing his name approximately 163 times; he would drop 73% of passes thrown his way during a season (approximate); start a feud with LeBron’s posse (pre-Decision; life is all timing folks) and become so hated in Cleveland he got traded to the Jets where he became an OK receiver and went to 2 straight AFC Championship games. Not a Jerry Rice-esque resume, but certainly more entertaining than Smith’s. But I digress.)
This year, we get to play out the Smith debacle all over again in the form of Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert.
When Todd McShay created his first mock draft all the way back in November, he didn’t have Gabbert in the first round at all. By January, Gabbert was up to a mid-first rounder.
In the latest mock drafts, McShay has him at #3. Mel Kiper’s hair has him #1 overall.
What has changed since that first mock draft? Gabbert has played four games in which he threw for 4 touchdowns (rushing for 3 more) and throwing 5 interceptions against powerhouses like Kansas State, Kansas and Iowa State (plus a Bowl game versus Iowa). Not exactly the performance that you would expect to propel a player from 2nd round to 1st overall.
Even after the season, Gabbert continued to climb – in 4 short months (while not playing a single game!) – Gabbert has risen to the top of the draft charts and if not taken with the overall #1 pick, will be almost assuredly the first quarterback off the board in the top five picks. Why has Gabbert risen? Simply, because every other quarterback has taken a step back and bad teams almost inevitably think that they should draft a quarterback if at the top of the draft.
Andrew Luck didn’t declare for the draft though he would have definitely been the #1 overall pick (a Pac-10 quarterback, coming off an outstanding year that included a high Heisman place and BCS win? Why does that remind me of someone else pertinent to this conversation…).
Ryan Mallet has spent the off-season plummeting down draft boards due to off-field concerns and issues. Personally, I think a last name that sounds suspiciously like Mullet is hurting him with certain teams as well but I haven’t been able to confirm that with my sources.
Cam Newton ping pongs between freaking out NFL teams with attitude red-flags (claiming to be Icon/Entertainer; his feigned ignorance of his dad’s utilizing Sotheby’s to identify his 2nd college; being the only criminal on the UF football team that Urban Meyer ever actually disciplined) and making them swoon with his athletic freakiness. For the record, it seems obvious to me that Cam is destined to basically follow the exact career path of Vince Young. Including getting a coach fired and having police called to a domestic incident.
That leaves Gabbert. A pro-style quarterback. With good size and off-season workouts and few red flags. Don’t worry about his actual performance on the field last fall failing to overly impress. He is tall and can throw hard in a t-shirt and shorts.
While Gabbert may be the best QB in the draft, that doesn’t mean he should go in the top five, that is just NFL thinking. I need a quarterback. He is the best around. I will take him. But that doesn’t answer the question: are you better off taking a player at a position of lesser need who has a better chance to be an outstanding player than taking a decent player at a position of need?
In most cases I would say no, but quarterback is different. Especially in the top five. This is the face of the franchise. The leader at the most important position. Given the investment spent on a first overall pick, are the Panthers that convinced Gabbert will be better than Jimmy Clausen who they drafted last year? Enough to invest $50million in him?
The Forty-Niners had a stable of Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey and Cody Pickett. Two of those guys were still young in 2004. Wouldn’t it have made more sense to give one of these guys a year to progress and then take your pick of a better 2005 quarterback class (Leinart, Young, Cutler) than to overreach and overspend on Smith?
Most likely some team will make the exact same mistake this year.
Those who don’t learn from the past, are destined to repeat it.
