A few weeks ago, I came under intense scrutiny in THH land for labeling conference Championship games ‘historically important’. My thinking is simple: the game that decides who plays for the Lombardi trophy is important. Sure, the losing team claims a place in history on par with the losing Vice Presidential nominee but the fact is the winner becomes part of a story that we will all remember years later. I wasn’t even alive for the first 9 Super Bowls yet, I can, to this day, name both teams that played in all or nearly all 44 Super Bowls.
Of course, maybe I am just some sort of loser or freak.
But rather than entertaining that possibility, I stand by championship games being important. The Drive, The Fumble, The Catch. Did any of these happen in the Super Bowl?
So, with that. Let’s look at this year’s games. Rather than just deciding who to cheer for (that will be tomorrow), let’s take a shot at actually predicting what will happen.
AFC: Colts vs. Jets
It is still a little hard to imagine that the Jets made the AFC title game. Sure, I am thrilled they eliminated the Chargers – cementing forever the Chargers underachieving status (at least the 1990’s Bills made the Super Bowl) but it is hard to imagine this team that lost to the Bills and Falcons and gave up a combined 61 points to the Dolphins in two losses are now one more upset from the Super Bowl.
The Colts, on the other hand were practically ordained to be here from about week #3. They have the best player of this millennium, a coach that may or may not be alive, no running game and an exceedingly mediocre defense. Actually, that doesn’t look so pre-ordained when I see it in print.
Anyway, the question in this game comes down to whether the Jets defense can once again stop the Colts offense enough to win. They did in Week #16 in their 29-15 victory. Of course those 15 points were scored in a little over 2 quarters before Peyton sat and the Jets pulled away over an offense led by Curtis Painter – last seen dominating the Indiana Hoosiers in 2008.
So, can the Jets do it again? Can they win for a second time against the Colts? For the third time in 3 weeks can they go into an opponent’s field, stymie their offense and score just enough to win? In a word – no.
The Jets have won by shutting down the run and forcing teams to pass. Surprise! The Colts don’t run anyway. No one needs to force them to pass. They do it on their own – and they do it pretty well. All they need to do is keep the rush off of Peyton and let him do his magic.
On the other side of the ball, who trusts Mark Sanchez to keep playing mistake free football and let his running game wear down the opponent? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Remember they were behind the whole Chargers game until a downright Jamarcus-esque pass by Philip Rivers gave them the lead and one botched defensive play sealed the win.
Re-matches typically favor the team that lost – who can change their approach while the team that won typically has the same game plan and hopes to execute as well. Factor in that the team that lost is at home, rested and just plain better? Sorry, Jets fans. The magic carpet ride ends here. Back to New Jersey with you.
Colts: 24, Jets 10
NFC: Vikings @ Saints
Unlike the AFC game, I think this one comes down to one thing – which team can run the ball. It is hard to imagine that the team with Bryan McKinnie, Steve Hutchinson and Adrian Peterson isn’t that team but based on what we have seen the last several weeks, they aren’t.
Do you when the last time was that Adrian Peterson had 100 yards rushing? That would be Week #9. Against Detroit. Which frankly, I have trouble even really counting. Before that was Week #6 versus Baltimore.
Not so coincidentally the Vikings were 6-0 at that point. In the following ten weeks, they went 6-4.
Last week against the Cowboys A.P. had 63 yards rushing. Teams are stopping the Vikings running game. They are putting the ball in Favre’s hands and saying ‘ok, old man – beat us.’ When Favre plays well, they have won (see last week). When he hasn’t they lost (see at Carolina Week #15).
You might also note the location of those two games. In Favre’s 6 games with a QB rating under 100, 4 of those have been on the road.
The Saints played another team at home last week with an aging QB that leads a dynamic passing attack with little run support. That team scored on an 80 yard run on the first play of the game. A run. Yet, the Saints still won 45-14.
I just don’t think that the Vikings offense can score enough on the Saints defense without a running game. Favre could start forcing things, and have the 3-interception game that is just dying to bust out of him like grey stubble.
On the other side, the Vikings defense put on a great show against the porous Cowboys offensive line last week and Tony Romo was mentally relaxing in Cabo about 10 minutes into the first quarter. Will they have that same success against a line that has given up 20 total sacks all year? The Saints have a smarter, better quarterback and about 5 times as many offensive weapons as the Cowboys.
And after last week, they might have one of the most talented playmakers in the game. The Reggie Bush that showed up to last week’s game looked like the guy we all oohed and aahed about in college. He was unbelievably quick, decisive and made defenders look more foolish than Jared Allen with his mullet. In short he was the player the Saints thought they drafted – rather than that guy that carries Kim Kardashian’s purse that they have been paying the last few years.
If the Saints suddenly have that threat coming out of the backfield to go with their 5-6 downfield threats, it won’t matter how many Vikings rush Brees he will have his choice of scoring options.
The final factor is a little thing I call karma. The Vikings are here after selling their soul to a heartless ego-maniac prima donna and scoring a late meaningless touchdown last week that did nothing but pad said prima donna’s already over inflated stats. The Saints represent the hopes and dreams of the only city in the U.S. to experience something that can truly compete with the post-apocalyptic world we will see 400 times on Sunday in the trailers for that new Denzel Washington movie.
I don’t want to live in a world where Favre can beat the Saints. Whatever faith I do have would be gone for good.
Saints: 31, Vikings 17
