This is how I started my fantasy preview last season:
You know when team officials lock themselves in a room for the NFL draft each spring, they call it the war room. I guess in the –way-too-serious world of the NFL, it does start to feel like the command post of a war happening outside its walls. Especially about hour number six after Wade Philips had a burrito for lunch.
So as I sit in seat 11-C on my way to Orlando for my fantasy football draft, I guess I will think of this Airbus 319 as a flying command post. Air Dave One, it is.
I have spent most of the flight looking through all of the conflicting player rankings coming up with a strategy for the draft. I know my draft position (7th – though sadly I can not remember whether this is a ten or twelve person league, which has serious repercussions beginning in round two) so I have been trying to target a short list of players for each round. Thankfully, the movie is that crappy rip-off of My Best Friend’s Wedding starring McDreamy. Apparently now that he is a sex symbol everyone has forgotten that he played high school dorks in classics of my youth Can’t Buy Me Love and Loverboy. I haven’t. But I guess he gives hope to everyone that wasn’t exactly Homecoming King, so he has that going for him.
Funny that I sit in the same spot a year later. When I say ‘exact same spot’ I am not being figurative. I am writing this as I sit in seat 11-C on the flight to Orlando. The only change is the in-flight entertainment. No bad movie this year, they are running the same string of sitcoms that I see every week going to and from Seattle, so I am occupying my time with a BS Report and a DVD of SportsNight – an all-time great TV show that has somehow been lost to the sands of time.
Anyway, there is one more thing that is different this year. I have no idea what to do in my draft. Has the top end of a fantasy draft ever been more confused? Each ‘expert’ has not only a different top five but there is even debate over who #1 should be. Add in the different rules of my league (point-per-reception(PPR), bonus points for QBs) and have no idea where to even begin.
I don’t even know who will be there when I draft. Typically, the top-five in whatever order is pretty well understood, so by the time I get to my (usually crappy) draft position, there are a handful of guys off the board.
This year, the PPR draft list from ESPN.com has Adrian Peterson (the consensus #1 in standard scoring leagues) at #6. Is he really going to be there? I doubt it. So who will be? Do I go receiver first if the top tier of running backs are gone? If so, who? Fitzgerald feasted when Boldin was injured last year. With a healthy Boldin, does his performance regress? When do I grab a quarterback and who? If you don’t get Brees or Brady there seems to be a big drop off. Do I sacrifice a receiver or running back in the first two rounds?
Honestly, I should be writing a preview column right now, but I have nothing to say. I am at a loss. I just spent an hour, trying to lay out a draft strategy and I am more confused than ever. If there was ever a year to come into a draft with knowledge but without a plan, this is it. The draft is a day away and I am pretty sure that my drafting will be purely reactionary.
Anyway, so you get something out of this other than the belief that I am whiner, forget overall projections of predictions. Instead I am going to just stick to a few sleepers. These guys won’t be in your top three rounds, but something tells me they could end up going significantly higher a year from now.
(Remember my approach is from a PPR league perspective so adjust accordingly – I am also including the round I am shooting to draft them in parentheses)
- Eddie Royal (4th round) – As I said last week after the first Broncos pre-season game. I think Royal could have a big year. He is a great fit for the new Broncos system. He is a hard worker and the coaches love him. He has Brandon Stokley taking some defensive pressure and if Brandon Marshall ever grows up and starts acting like an adult, a fabulously overrated distraction to pull even more coverage away from him. It says here, that next year Royal will be going a full round earlier than Marshall, who is primed to disappoint both due to a bad fit and an even worse attitude
- Kevin Walter (7) – The revenge of Tyler Hansbrough I guess. After mocking so many others for overrating overachieving white players, here I go trumpeting Walter. Remember this is a PPR league and while Andre Johnson makes the big plays, Walter makes the first downs. Think of Walter as Wes Welker to Johnson’s Randy Moss. A Wes Welker that can be drafted 4 rounds later than the original.
- Leon Washington (8) – call it homerism for a former Nole that happens to be named after the county where FSU is located, if you wish (however my next pick should convince collegiate locale isn’t a primary criteria). This is business. The word from my close friend Peter King is that the new Jet coaching staff loves Leon. Imagine him as a 3rd down weapon for swing passes and screens. If your league gives individual points for return yardage and TDs all the better. Plus you get to yell out ‘Leon!’ all fall – which is a bonus.
- Percy Harvin (10 – 11) – yeah, yeah I know. The widely heralded sleeper (which I recognize is an oxymoron, but you know what I mean). With the addition of Favre as his quarterback, the resulting move toward a more open passing attack, and the glowing reports from camp it is pretty easy to imagine Harvin getting a lot of balls coming his way. Even more than when he walked in on Tebow and Riley Cooper (sorry, couldn’t resist).
- Matt Hasselbeck (12) – Could it be another case of brainwashing from my time in Seattle? Maybe. But I still don’t like Julius Jones, so maybe not. Everyone remembers Matt’s awful 2008 (especially those of us that owned him in fantasy) but between an injured back and no receivers it can at least be explained. Factor in the arrival of TJ Houshmandzadeh, a healthy back and a division of incredibly weak defenses and it is easy to imagine a solid if not spectacular re-emergence. Which is more than you can usually ask of a 12th round pick.
- Jay Cutler and Brett Favre – Ha! Sucker. You really think I would draft either of these guys? A quarterback whose arm may or may not last until November and a guy who called out his only half-way decent receiver after his first lackluster pre-season game? Yeah, right.
My team may not win but at least we will lose with integrity.
That and a fun Cutler-demeaning nickname, of course.
