Up 15-10 in the 15th game of the regular season, Jim Caldwell benched his starters. In the process, Caldwell accomplished a grand slam: (1) he propelled the Jets to the playoffs, (2) he by-passed an opportunity to make history and banish Mercury Morris from our lives forever (3) he may have sown the seeds of doubt about his coaching abilities in the mind of one of the greatest quarterbacks in history and (4) he gave a middle finger to one of the most devoted fan bases in the NFL. Not many coaches are able to do accomplish that in a career, yet alone in their first season as coach.
In benching his starters for the remainder of the Jets game and for the vast majority of the Bills game, Caldwell followed the blueprint laid out by his mentor Tony Dungy in becoming one of the most honorable and beloved yet underachieving coaches in NFL history.
In the context of the opportunity to have an undefeated season, much was debated about Caldwell’s decision to rest his starters. But after the loss by the Colts (and previously the Saints), the debate went quiet. But after Wildcard weekend, the question seems to be more pertinent than ever.
What is more important in the playoffs: keeping momentum or getting healthy?
Before this year, I would have argued that the teams that should rest players are those that have locked into a playoff spot that includes playing wild card weekend. When you know that you don’t get a week off before the playoffs start, it made sense to me to get some players some rest in the week before. However, any team that already gets wildcard week off should keep playing through the regular season. There is a thin-line between rest and rust.
But after watching the games this week, I start to wonder if any rest can be a killer. Looking at the four games that were played all featured one team that had relaxed in week #17 and one that had played all out. Of the teams that rested in Week #17, only the Cardinals ended up winning. The Bengals, Patriots, and Eagles played either basic gameplans in Week #17 or out-right rested players. And none of these teams were able to get going again, fell behind early and couldn’t mount enough of a rally.
While the Patriots have a built-in excuse – the loss of probably the most important person to their offense, Wes Welker – the pattern was pretty clear in the context of all the other games. Teams that had relaxed in Week #17 just couldn’t get the internal pilot light re-lit in time for the game starting.
It seems to me that in the week before the most important games of the year, barring any catastrophic injuries losing a week of game speed level execution seems to be the worst thing that can happen to you.
NOTE: Really how many of those catastrophic game-changing injuries have actually occurred over the years? Sort of like geniuses such as Sean Hannity seeing a cold snap as proof there is no global warming, teams can’t overreact to the Welker injury. It was a fluke injury.
After an extra week off, the rust could be even more pronounced coming this weekend.
Passing games such as the one used by the Colts rely on rhythm and being synchronicity between quarterback and wide receiver. Despite the irony of a band that hated each other releasing an album of that name.
The Colts have now not played a meaningful, full game since December 17th. That was so long ago we only knew of like 14 Tiger Wood mistresses back then. You think they are going to be able come out fast against a team that has been playing for their lives for a month and just yesterday put 24 points on the Patriots in the first quarter? In the playoffs when you are, by definition, playing the best teams in the game isn’t it more of a competitive disadvantage to be out-played for at least a quarter every game than the possibility one of your key players getting hurt?
This past Wildcard weekend was so universally boring and one-sided it was absolutely saved by the one team that did take a week off and won. The Cardinals lost to the Packers 33-7 in Week #17 and then came back, opened up a huge lead and almost lost it before avoiding an embarrassing OT loss thanks to one Aaron Rodgers overthrow and a forced fumble-sack to win it.
How to explain the Cardinals being able to do it and the others couldn’t? Well, first of all is the experience. They did this just a year ago, when they limped into the playoffs and then dominated three straight weeks. All of the other teams that lost do not have the track-record of being able to turn it on and turn it off. The Eagles last year had to win Week #17 to make the playoffs, the Patriots played all out at the Giants in Week #17 during the undefeated season and the Bengals played one playoff game this decade – a loss at home on Wildcard weekend – so they don’t really count.
As much as I enjoy making fun of Kurt Warner and his wife, he has to get credit for being the maturing factor that helps the rest of the young Cardinals understand how to win in the playoffs. His wife had a grey flat-top when most of these guys were still in high school – you don’t think that earns respect in the locker room? Yet, we all constantly underestimate the Cardinals in the playoffs (only the annoying bad-impressionist comic picking the Cardinals to win on the Fox pre-game).
Call me crazy but I wouldn’t be shocked by 3 of 4 road teams winning next week. The Cardinals, Cowboys and Ravens may be able to continue their momentum into play-off wins against teams that have shown cracks recently.
Wait.. am I predicting a Cowboy v. Cardinal and Ravens v. Charger conference title weekend? Eek…on second thought, health is just so important. You really can’t rest enough in preparation for the playoffs.
