After several weeks off due to the good (covering the World Cup), the bad (sad death of his brother) and the ugly (meeting naked guys in the bathroom at Wrigley – though not in the Larry Craig kind of way), Peter King yesterday returned with his Monday Morning Quarterback column. MMQB should be standard Monday lunch time/bathroom break reading for any NFL fan because Peter has been around longer and knows more people in and around the game than just about anyone else.
As part of yesterday’s column, he re-iterated that his going-in position that the Packers and Chargers will meet for the Super Bowl. By my rough estimation (read: made up), this makes at least the 5th year in a row one of the pre-eminent NFL experts has picked the Chargers to make the Super Bowl.
And for the 5th year in a row, that pick will look ridiculous by the middle of January.
The problem with picking a Super Bowl champion in the off-season is that you end up basing it on the paper line up of the team, the schedule and memories of watching that team the previous fall. Memories which tend to fall one of two ways: either as a highlight reel or a bloopers show.
When someone looks at the talented roster of the Chargers, they would go back and put together a highlight reel of the 2009 season: 13-3 record, 11 straight wins, regular season victories over Jets, Cowboys, Titans, Bengals and Eagles.
But then they forget about the Chargers annual abysmal start (2-3) and home loss to the Jets in the playoffs. They also forget that the Chargers repeat this same pattern every single year.
At this point, to borrow a phrase, the Chargers are who we thought they are. A talented team that starts the season slow, picks up steam and gets on a roll late in the regular season then sputters out in the playoffs like a 39-year old Lance Armstrong in the Tour de France.
For me, it is impossible to sit here today and see how this year will be any different. The roster wasn’t greatly improved in the off-season and with potential hold-outs by players like Vincent Jackson, Shawne Merriman and Marcus McNeil they could be significantly worse. The Chargers also lost (an admittedly past his prime) LaDainain Tomlinson, free-love advocate Antonio Cromartie, Brandon Manumaleuna, Kasim Osgood and Jamal Williams. They picked up a rookie running back in the draft, Ryan Matthews who is also still un-signed and could be late to camp.
Someone much smarter than me needs to explain how all these moves make the Chargers appreciably better than they were a year ago.
Each year that no players are busting taking PEDs, the Chargers defense gets older and the chance of revisiting the dominating seasons of a couple years ago becomes smaller and smaller.
While Philip Rivers has grown into a solid quarterback all the weapons around him have not grown. The running game has atrophied like Merriman after his steroid suspension and Rivers’ receiving targets keep changing and it isn’t clear if they are getting any better or just substituting a new group of underachieving scrubs.
Putting all of their eggs in the cart of a rookie running back from Fresno State could help alleviate the pressure on Rivers or could blow up in their faces. Just ask the Raiders how the McFadden era helped Jamarcus Russell. Or ask the Broncos how Knowshon Moreno’s rookie campaign helped Kyle Orton. Or ask the Cowboys how Felix Jones’s rookie year helped Tony Romo. And remember how Marion Barber ended up being the key to the Patriots continued dominance? Oh yeah, me neither.
Beyond the roster being essentially the same if not worse, there is one additional element that will always keep me from believing the Chargers can win a Super Bowl until I actually see and hear Phillip Rivers say he is going to Disneyland.
And he goes by the name Norv.
Norv Turner has now been a head coach for 12 seasons in the NFL with three different teams. His playoff record is 4-4. What is different about this off-season that would ever make me think Norv suddenly knows how to win playoff games? Nothing. He is, to borrow another phrase, the same as he ever was.
Norv is a fine coach if you are looking for a good regular season record with a talented team. He is not someone that can turn around a bad team or put a good team over the top. That just isn’t in his genes.
My guess is that it has something to do with the name Norv. Do you really want to live in a world where a guy named Norv is successful?
I am the first to admit that I have no special knowledge of the NFL. I don’t spend my days texting with GMs. I don’t have players calling me to complain about their contract situations. Heck, I am not even allowed behind the ropes when I visit my hometown team’s practices. In short, I am just like you. Just a regular fan who maybe spends too much time thinking about football.
But if being stuck outside the ropes and watching 95% of NFL games from my couch are what keep me from continuously falling in to the conventional wisdom about NFL teams like the Chargers.
Pass me the guacamole.
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