Now that the Super Bowl is behind us and the ticker tape has started to soak up all of the urine left on Bourbon Street, it is time to briefly look back and then begin looking ahead. Today we continue our annual tradition of looking back at my pre-season projections and mocking their foolishness while also laying down an early projection for next year.
I wish I could say that this is the earliest projections for the 2010 NFL season but even before Peyton’s tears had dried there were professional prognosticators in a certain desert town suggesting that the Colts were the best bet to participate in Super Bowl XLV. Really? What about getting dominated by the Saints screamed ‘Colts repeat!’ to these guys? The team will be a year older, have another year under a coach that acts like the star of “Tyler Perry’s Weekend at Bernie’s” and have yet another piece of playoff choke luggage to carry but they are going to pick right up where they left off, huh?
As I looked back at last year’s edition of this post, I came across my early prediction for last weekend’s Super Bowl. Thanks to some convoluted rationale this was part of an imagined speech on Hardball (don’t ask) thus the strange introduction:
Chris, I would like to take this opportunity to announce my candidates for the 2010 Super Bowl. That is correct, right here I am happy announce that the Colts and Falcons will play for the Vince Lombardi trophy in Miami in February 2010.”
How about that? Pretty close for a full year out. Too bad things only got worse as the season got closer.
AFC East:
For pretty much this entire decade, there has really only been one team that is even worth mentioning from the AFC East – Mr. Belichick’s Wonder Emporium. Now, after a season in which Tom Brady hit a child sitting in the 3rd row with his ACL, there is a new defending conference champion – Gloria Estefan’s Teal Warriors. So do the Dolphins turn the beat around and win it again? Ah no. The odds of Chad Pennington winning another title with no receivers and two mediocre running backs is about as good as the Miami Sound Machine having another top five hit. No, unfortunately for all of us, the Patriots will pick up right where they left off a couple seasons ago. Much is being made about the turnover in the Patriots defense, however it is ignored that all of the players that have been released are older than several new NFL head coaches. A youth movement is a good thing – especially when the Patriot defense wasn’t that good to begin with. No, sorry Pats haters, there is only place where anyone on the Patriots has competition from an AFC East rival and that is from the new Jets quarterback in answering the question ‘Which quarterback has the hottest significant other in the AFC East?’
Winner: Patriots (13-3)
Wild Card: None
Actual Winner: Patriots (10-6)
Actual Wild Card: Jets (9-7)
SD: So the Patriots weren’t quite the team I envisioned (wait until we get to my playoff projections) but at least I can chalk up a win for my projections! Don’t get used to it. While the Patriots aged faster than the cast of 90210, the Jets snuck up to surprise and ride momentum all the way to the AFC title game. Somehow the addition of a wide receiver who can’t catch and a quarterback who doesn’t like to throw to his own receivers were the missing ingredients for the Jets. I can’t be blamed for missing that.
2010 Projection: The trendy pick these days is the Jets based on their late season run into the playoffs. But have we all forgotten the lesson of Matt Ryan already? Sophomore campaigns are always tougher than rookie years. And Sanchez’s rookie year wasn’t really that great. I think the Patriots, though aging, have one more run in them. And let’s not forget about the Dolphins, who didn’t even start playing until October and still nearly made the playoffs.
2010 Winner: Dolphins (Wild Card: Patriots)
AFC North:
Do you remember the movie Groundhog Day? Remember the major city that Bill Murray, Andie MacDowell come from to film Punxsutawney Phil? That is right it’s Pittsburgh. Well, take the hint folks. For yet another year, the Steelers will win and the Ravens will ride the coattails of their defense and the minimum risk offense to a Wildcard berth. Sorry Bengals, I may like you more thanks to your appearance on Hard Knocks (I need more Chad Ochocinco in my life. His saying ‘call me’ as each cheerleader ran by him on last week’s episode was the funniest thing I have seen on TV all year) but they can’t compete with the Steelers and Ravens. And the Browns…oh the Browns. The combination of Eric Mangini, Brady Quinn, Braylon Edwards’ stone hands and rampant staph infections may make for lots of good jokes but not lots of wins.
Winner: Steelers (12-4)
Wild Card: Ravens (10-6)
Actual Winner: Bengals (10-6)
Actual Wild Card: Ravens (9-7)
SD: Well, on the bright side, the Ravens were a Wild Card team, so chalk one up for me. On the downside, the Bengals turned a starring turn in Hard Knocks into a surprise division title while the Steelers decided that this would take this year off and come back stronger next year. Funny, I always thought that was what the off-season was for. If I had written this last week I could say I still haven’t seen anything as funny as Ochocinco telling each cheerleader to call him but then I saw that Private Dancer on this week’s Bachelor. Sorry Chad.
2010 Projection: If Troy Polamalu’s hair returns healthy, it is hard to see the Steelers not regaining their place atop this division. The Bengals just feel like a team that were the beneficiaries of other team’s off years and I still don’t believe in the Ravens, not with a defense getting older by the day and the only growth in Joe Flacco’s game occurring between his eyebrows.
2010 Winner: Steelers
AFC South:
It seems fitting that the geography of the AFC South overlaps with the SEC, because it could be argued that the AFC South is the SEC of the NFL. Both conferences have more than one team that could challenge to be the best in the game; even the worst teams are better than many teams in other conferences and any conference member is thrilled to see a team from Ohio or Michigan on its schedule. So it is only fitting that I think a former SEC quarterback will re-assert his dominance and lead his team to another conference championship. While last season the Titans ended the Colts years of dominance, I don’t buy Kerry Collins two years in a row – especially with a less dominating defense, a harder schedule and still no wide receivers. On the bright side for Tennessee, with a tequila-less Lendale White leading the way, the Titans can eek into the playoffs over the perennial underachieving Jags (speaking of no wide receivers) and Texans (..actually I don’t know why the Texans underachieve every year, sort of like the Georgia Bulldogs).
Winner: Colts (11-5)
Wild Card: Titans (10-6)
Actual Winner: Colts (14-2)
Actual Wild Card: None
SD: The Colts were as solid and boring as advertised. The Titans made a valiant attempt to erase that 0-6 start and make it a clean sweep for me in the AFC South. It is shameful I made a joke about Kerry Collins and Lendale without mentioning Vince Young or Chris Johnson even once. I look forward to plenty of Vince Young / Chris Johnson jokes next year. I am guessing they will involve some combination of CJ looking like a rapper and VY going crazy last year. Thankfully I have a few months to work on them.
2010 Projection: Was the Super Bowl just a momentary blip on the Colts continued domination or was it the tipping point that will send them on a downward spiral that it now appears Super XLII was for the Pats? A little too soon to tell, but it is hard to see the Titans not showing up until week #7 for a second year in a row. Not with Li’l CJ and the real Vinsanity leading the way.
2010 Winner: Titans (Wild Card: Colts)
AFC West:
All reports from San Diego seem to show that Shawne Merriman was able to successfully rehab from last year’s knee injury. Even if he has returned successfully, I think we can all agree he would have been better off taking a cue from LenDale and sworn off Tequila as well. As much as I would love to see the Chargers season imploded by a slutty, bi-curious, reality dating show veteran; even Tila can’t stop the Chargers from winning the AFC West. There is just no other competition. The Broncos don’t have a quarterback and a horrendous schedule that offset an improved defense and running game. The only question around the Raiders and Chiefs this year is to which team has the biggest bust at quarterback. Congratulations Chargers – shots are on Shawne!
Winner: Chargers (11-5)
Wild Card: None
Actual Winner: Chargers (13-3)
SD: Well, the Broncos made the division interesting for at least 8 weeks but in the end the Chargers once again ran away with the AFC West. While it is easy to look back at the Broncos and say they collapsed once again, that is revisionist history. It is forgotten now but their 6 and 0 start was fueled by the Immaculate Deflection at Cincinnati in week #1 and wins against Oakland and Cleveland. The next three wins against Dallas (pre-Miles Austin), the Patriots at home and at the Chargers were impressive at the time but in hindsight the Cowboys were still struggling to find their offensive rhythm (see: overtime win at Kansas City the following week), the Patriots weren’t as strong as their reputations (and they were playing their former offensive coordinator) and the Chargers were coached by Norv Turner and therefore view the months of September and October as optional. Though, this in no way excuses home losses to the Raiders and Chiefs in the final 3 weeks of the season – that was just an embarrassment.
2010 Projection: Philip Rivers and the Chargers receivers continue to grow while at the same time the Chargers running game and defense slowly atrophies. Can the Chargers continue to improve or at least stay equally strong while feasting on the pathetic Chiefs and Raiders? At some point one of these other teams are going to grow up and challenge the Chargers. I think the Broncos are that team and a second year under Josh McDaniels may be the time. Assuming their quarterback gains confidence and they find a defensive coordinator, run defense, offensive line, running game and wide receiver to replace Brandon Marshall. See, they are just that close.
2010 Winner: Broncos
Playoffs:
Wild Card:
Titans @ Chargers: After LaDanian and Phillip Rivers put 5 touchdowns on the Titans, Jeff Fisher stops second-guessing choosing moustache over full beard long enough to second-guess letting Albert Haynesworth sign with the Redskins.
Ravens @ Colts: Last year Bert Flacco proved that he won’t lose a playoff game for the Ravens. Unfortunately for him, Peyton has proven that he can win a playoff game for the Colts. Ray Lewis takes a stab at stopping him, but fails.
Divisional Playoffs:
Chargers @ Patriots: In the NFL, many hours and many words are spent analyzing teams and games, examining things from every possible angle – from individual position battles to the grass types used in various stadiums. However sometimes analyzing games is pretty simple. Exhibit A: Norv Turner vs. Bill Belichick.
Colts @ Steelers: In the world of NFL stereotypes this would be a high-flying offense versus a dominating defense. But after the release of Marvin Harrison and the presumed kidnapping of Joseph Addai, the Colts offense won’t set scoring records like previous years. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers won a shootout with the Cardinals in the Super Bowl and the handcuffs are being taken off of Roethlisberger to really run this offense. And as Tahoe hotel hostesses will tell you, Big Ben is tough to handle when he isn’t being handcuffed.
AFC Championship:
Steelers @ Patriots: I consider this one too close to call. Frankly, I would say whichever team hosts this game becomes the winner here. So, you could argue that by placing second in the AFC East last season and securing a slightly easier schedule than 2008 AFC North Champ Steelers, the Patriots clinched another Super Bowl berth this year. Well played Pats. I tell you, Belichick really is a diabolical genius.
AFC Champion: Patriots
SD: Everything about this is so unbelievably wrong, it almost isn’t even worth talking about. Other than an incredibly insightful preview of the Ravens/Colts playoff game that actually did occur the rest of this is about as accurate as predictions on what will happen in the final season of Lost.
2010 Projections: So will last decade’s dynasties continue dominating the AFC for another year or do the new young promising teams step up and show who will be the leading teams in the teens? It is hard to say. But my early feeling is that the tide is turning so my initial call is that your 2010 AFC champs will be the Tennessee Titans after they beat the Steelers in the AFC title game.
Really the only thing we know for sure at this point is that the Chargers won’t play up to their ability. It is comforting to know that as a new decade dawns not everything changes.
We will come back next week with our review/preview of the NFC but this weekend Turner and I are taking a little field trip to JerryWorld. We are off to the NBA All Star Game and will have a full re-cap of the game and what it is like to watch a 110-yard long HD TV. Too bad J.R. Smith isn’t playing, I’m thinking some of his 3-pointers have a chance at hitting the bottom of the screen that the all of the NFL’s punters failed to hit this season.
