Last night, the focus of NBC’s Olympic coverage was Ice Dancing. I believe this is the first time I have ever suffered through this abomination some would call a sport. Basically, if you are lucky enough to be in the hospital or suffering from blinding cataracts and did not see it, ice dancing is like figure skating with all of the challenging athletic aspects removed. Do they have to complete jumps? Nope. Do they throw their partner? Nuh-uh.
To my untrained eye, the goal of ice-dancing is to pick a culture different from your own, boil it down to its simplest stereotypes and create a dance to some clichéd music from that culture while twirling and dancing around the ice. That is it. This is Dancing with the Stars, add ice, subtract the stars (though it could be argues Dancing with the Stars doesn’t really have stars either). Yet, someone will be an Olympic champion at this.
I know there has been a great controversy over a Russian couple’s use of an aboriginal theme. But how about the insult to all westerners by the French couple dancing to some duet of ‘Thank God I’m a Country Boy’ featuring Dolly Parton? Or the American duo’s Slumdog Dancing Queen number?
I guess, like good comedy, if someone isn’t insulted Ice Dancing wasn’t a success.
Anyway, suffering through this and NBC clubbing us over the head with the feigned suspense of hours old drama predictably featuring US Olympians winning makes we wish for a simpler time. You know, like last football season.
While it would be very easy to predict who will win most NBC primetime events as they have already occurred, it isn’t so easy in football. So, how did I do back in September making predictions on what would occur in the NFC?
NFC East
The popular pick these days is the Eagles. They fortified their offensive line, picked up another fragile skill player in Jeremy Maclin and locked down the support of the pro-Baby Seal Clubbing lobby with the signing of Michael Vick. On the negative side, they lost their defensive guru to cancer, signed yet another fragile skill player and ensured every McNabb interception will elicit “We want Vick” chants from the crowd. I call that a wash. On the other hand, the Giants were the best team in the game for much of last year; only falling apart after Plaxico took an old saying just a little too literally. With an entire offseason to adjust to a Plaxico-less world (including drafting Hakeem Nicks who has Burress’ athletic gifts but not his itchy trigger finger) and the return of Osi Umenyiora to their defense, I say the Giants return to their place atop the division. What about the Cowboys and Redskins, you ask? Well, they are both worth a lot. I guess that counts for something.
Winner: Giants (11-5)
Wild Card: Eagles (10-6)
Actual Winner: Cowboys (11-5)
Actual Wild Card: Eagles (11-5)
SD: Who would have thought this would be the year that the Cowboys learn how to win games in December? Who would have guessed that the emergence of some wide receiver with a name that sounds like a character on Gossip Girl would be the catalyst for the Cowboys? Who could have predicted that the Giants would fold after a fast start thanks to Eli Manning not being very good, no running game and a porous defense? OK, when I see it written down it seems a little more obvious. But at least the Eagles were predictably above-average but not great. In fact, shouldn’t that be McNabb and Reid’s tombstone someday: Here lies Donovan McNabb: Predictably Good but Never Great.
2010 Projection: Do the Cowboys keep it up another year? Does Mike Shanahan coaching the Redskins have an impact on this division? Will the Eagles get over the hump? Will the Giants regain their Super Bowl winning form? Will I stop asking so many rhetorical questions? The answers to all of these is No. But the Cowboys have the highest upside and as proven this year Tony Romo and Wade Phillips are perfectly adequate in non-big games. Let’s assume knocking around 3 mediocre teams all season, won’t require Tony to win a big game until the playoffs.
2010 Winner: Cowboys
NFC North
Probably the most interesting yet simultaneously least likable division in football, the Tom Cruise division if you will. With Old Man Winter unretiring yet again for a 2009 Spite World Tour and coming back to the Vikings and the acquisition of Cry-Baby Jay in Chicago, there are now 3 teams with legitimate plans to win this division (sorry Lions – win one game and then we’ll talk). As I have discussed I just do not believe Favre makes the Vikings better. Combining his appearance changing the Viking’s offensive personality with the probability he will get hurt at some point and I see the Vikings underachieving. As far as Cutler is concerned – I just don’t get it. It is pretty much universally agreed that no one likes Jay Cutler. Yet, despite never being a winner (I mean never, he last won the same year Matt Cassell last started) and being hated by everyone including his own parents (that’s conjecture on my part), he is going to be the galvanizing force that propels the Bears to the Super Bowl? Really? That’s not the Jay I know. The Jay I know will whine, complain and point fingers the moment something goes wrong. The self-destructions in both Minnesota and Chicago will leave Green Bay as the clear cut champions. With a strong, reliable leader at quarterback, a revamped defense and good receivers all the Packers need to do is re-discover their running game. No pressure Ryan Grant.
Winner: Packers (11-5)
Wild Card: None
Actual Winner: Vikings (12-4)
Actual Wild Card: Packers (11-5)
SD: I pretty much nailed the Packers (toot, toot!) but the Favre experiment in Minnesota went much better than I expected. I still stand by their fatal flaw being how Favre’s appearance changed the offensive identity of this team but I did not expect Favre’s presence to turn Sidney Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe into Jerry Rice and Brent Jones. And that seems so obvious in retrospect. Thankfully, the old Brett re-emerged just in time to end the Vikings season, break Vikings fans hearts and keep me from eating crow for an entire off-season.
2010 Projection: Let’s be clear. Brett Favre is not retiring. He just isn’t. I don’t care what he says. With that said, does the 2009 Brett Favre show up to Vikings camp several weeks after the rest of the team, or does an older version of the 2008 Favre show up to Vikings camp several weeks after the rest of the team? Call me the eternal pessimist but if a guy averages 17 INTs across a career and one season throws 5, that is an aberration not a trend. If the Packers go get some offensive linemen this offseason, that should put them over the top.
2010 Winner: Packers
NFC South
In the merry-go-round that is the NFC South each year brings a new surprise team. Last year the Falcons were the out-of-nowhere team that rose from the ashes and made the playoffs. This year I think it will be the Saints. Much like a plane crash survivor always trembles at the least turbulence, I just can’t forget the horrific display put on by Jake Delhomme in the playoffs last year. Despite a great defense and great running game, Jake’s presence single-handedly ends any consideration I might make for the Panthers. Yes, his performance last January was that bad. Remember how your feelings about U2 changed after the Zooropa tour? That is me and Jake right now. The Bucs are in what could charitably be described as re-building mode. I tend to think of it more as self-destruction mode what with choosing to start Byron Leftwich and Cadillac Williams behind a shaky offensive line – no injury concerns there. The Falcons should be as good as last year. Unfortunately they play a significantly tougher schedule and have higher expectations so being as good won’t be good enough. That leaves the Saints. A team that has been the ‘IT’ team more often over the last five years than Reggie Bush has been identified as a potential fantasy sleeper. It is only fitting, now that everyone has given up on Reggie ever being anything more than Kim Kardashian’s purse holder that the Saints finally live up to their hype.
Winner: Saints (10-6)
Wild Card: Falcons (9-7)
Actual Winner: Saints (13-3)
Actual Wild Card: None
SD: I finally get the Steve Young memorial monkey off my back, with a correct call. For the record, the Falcons went 9-7 this year but didn’t qualify for the Wild Card. Jake Delhomme picked up right where he left off and the Bus were a joke. So I pretty much nailed this one. Though, I did miss on Reggie Bush – he is still pretty much best known as Kim’s purse holder, but hey 4 out of 5 ain’t bad.
2010 Projection: the Saints have a lot of players to re-sign this spring and surprise Super Bowl winners tend to go one of two ways in the year after: they come back with confidence overflowing and play like champions or they come back content and play like the Steelers. If they can get the core of their team back, the Saints have so little competition here they should be able to repeat, unlike every NFC South winner this decade.
2010 Winner: Saints
NFC West
Remarkably, the NFC West is the home of our defending NFC champions. Its’ true – you can look it up. Even stranger, that team is named the Cardinals! So, naturally they are the favorites again this year, right? Sorry, desert dwellers I am not buying it. Losing both coordinators and relying on stubble-ific, god-fearing grandpappy Kurt Warner makes me think the 8-8 regular season is more emblematic of your team than the unbelievable ‘Cardanuary’ performance turned in by Larry Fitzgerald. Maybe my year in the Emerald City has caused me to drink the latte about the Seahawks but I think they are the winners of the NFC West. They have finally found a receiver and their already strong defense got better with the arrival of Aaron Curry. As long as Hasselbeck can stay healthy and they find some semblance of a running game, I think the Seahawks have enough to win this division. This is the point where I make a joke about the Forty-Niners and Rams. Unfortunately there is nothing funny about what has happened to these two teams in the last 5 years.
Winner: Seahawks (10-6)
Wild Card: None
Actual Winner: Cardinals (10-6)
Wild Card: None
SD: My picking of the Seahawks is starting to border on a “Chris Berman picking a 49er/Bills Super Bowl” level of idiocy. Every year I talk myself into them. Then Matt Hasselbeck plays the first game looking like Abe Simpson, their running game disappears and I question my own sanity. The Cardinals defied the odds and showed that the previous playoff run wasn’t a complete fluke by dominating the NFC West again. Though that is like saying Memphis dominates Conference-USA in basketball.
2010 Projection: Matt Leinart leads the Cardinals to another NFC West title. Ok, I just wanted to see it in print and, yep, it looks ridiculous. Of course writing the Forty-Niners, Seahawks or Rams are going to be division winners looks just as dumb. Could an off-season that includes a movie called ‘Hot Tub Time Machine’ actually be an omen that football’s most famous hot tub user will return to his collegiate form?
2010 Winner: Cardinals
Playoffs
Wildcard:
Eagles @ Saints: Much like the Suns of the mid-nineties in the NBA, the Saints demonstrate that a high-flying offense alone isn’t enough to win in the playoffs. TV commentators across the country rejoice in being able to recycle the age-old cliché that ‘defense wins championships’ as high quality analysis.
Falcons @ Seahawks: The inaugural Jim Mora Bowl. Do you trust a southern Dome team to win in Seattle in January? Me neither.
Divisional Playoffs:
Seahawks @ Giants: Two years ago, I never would have imagined that I would take Eli over Hasselbeck in a playoff game. Like ripples from a drop of water, the repercussions from that Super Bowl upset of the Patriots just won’t end.
Eagles @ Packers: Unlike the Saints, the Packers have a little defense to help their high-scoring offense. Therefore, unlike the Saints, the Eagles won’t beat the Packers.
NFC Championship:
Packers @ Giants: Apparently I am feeling very 2007 – as we have a re-match of the NFC Championship game. I tried to warn you that I discounted everything that happened last year. The final proof that I am feeling so 2007? No, not that I will be watching Heroes every week. Instead, I come up with a Super Bowl re-match.
NFC Champion: New York Giants
Actual NFC Champion: New Orleans Saints
SD: So the Saints had a little more defense and running game than I give them credit for and the Giants had significantly less. Rather than actually doing research, I just like to use each team’s stereotypes to predict them. Maybe I shouldn’t be so critical of Ice Dancing after all.
2010 Projection: The NFC seems wide open going into next season. We have the Favre factor – does he come back and is he the good, the bad or the ugly? The Saints, year after effect. The Cardinals with Matt Leinart taking over for Kurt Warner. The Cowboys still have Wade Phillips and Tony Romo. Which team could step up? Is there another team out there that could come out of nowhere and dominate? Who knows. The draft and free-agency season should help clarify things. But for a team with the least number of questions, right now there is one clear answer.
2010 NFC Winner: Packers
