To bet on the Patriots at the Broncos today, you will need to give 7.5 points. For those not regularly familiar with betting on football – that is a lot of points.
That is the same amount that the Giants are favored at home against the (4-9) Redskins.
It is more than the Saints are favored at the (2-11) Vikings.
Even the winless Colts are only 7 point underdogs to the Titans.
Did I mention the Broncos have a record of 8-5, lead the AFC West, have won 6 straight and are at home?
In short – you are insane to bet on the Patriots.
I admit that there is a chance that the Patriots blow out the Broncos. Just look at what the Lions did several weeks ago. The prevailing theory is that the Lions game is the blueprint of what a high-scoring offense can do to the Broncos.
But a lot of things have changed since that game.
The first and most important is that the ever evolving Broncos offense. Back on October 30th, John Fox and Mike McCoy tried to run a traditional offense in Tim Tebow’s 2nd start this season. It was a failure, and between turnovers and 3-and-outs the Broncos defense never stood a chance.
In the intervening weeks, the Broncos have constantly evolved their offense, from a spread option to a conservative but traditional running game. Each week has brought a different attack so not even Belichick is really sure what he will see today.
Unless, of course, he has reverted to his Spy Gate approach.
Can the Broncos slow the high scoring Patriots defense? They won’t stop them but they can hope to contain them. With one of the 5 best pass rushing tandems to put pressure on Brady without blitzing, little concern for an anemic Pats running game, and 2 veteran quarterbacks (with a history of success versus Brady) they should be able to at least keep the Patriots under their average, high scoring ways.
And that may be enough with an offense that should score more than it has the last few weeks.
The key to stopping Tebow’s passing game is tight coverage. He is just not accurate enough or confident enough to put the ball in tight windows. It is more than a coincidence that there have been 2 situations in which Tebow has thrown well.
1 – Late in games, when teams protecting a lead, drop into a prevent defense to preclude the long pass. With suddenly more space between his receivers and defenders Tebow gains the confidence he had when his receivers at UF ran wide open against inferiors opponents.
2 – Against a Vikings secondary that was so awful I entertained myself all afternoon by comparing Tebow to M. Night Shymalan, because the Vikings inspired me to think that Tebow was seeing dead people. With a secondary that bad, Eric Decker and Demaryious Thomas easily got open and Tebow could put the ball close enough for them to make plays.
In case you haven’t noticed, the Patriots secondary is pretty bad. The Pats are giving up 308 yards per game, good enough for dead last in the NFL.
Tebow should be able to complete passes, keep the ball moving and allow the running game to roll.
The Patriots will score points, I don’t doubt that. But so will the Broncos. And do you really want to have money against Tebow late in a close game?
Between a frenzied Mile High crowd and the inexplicable power of Tebow, there is little doubt the Broncos can keep within 7 points of the Patriots. Having won 6 straight games, none of which made any logical sense, why think the Broncos would suddenly get blown out?
For me, gambling on football comes down to figuring out which games are Gimmes and which games are Traps. The Broncos sure look like a Gimme to me.
The only ones that can really think that laying 7. 5points on the Pats at Denver is a Gimme are the same folks that wrote an article before the last baseball season that the 2011 Red Sox might be one of the greatest teams ever.
