Last year, in the inaugural ‘Doubling Down’ series, I had a shockingly successful run in picking both halftime and full time playoff games against the spread. A smarter man than I would go out on top. Call it a fun experiment and move on with my life to things I am more qualified to write about. Whatever that may be.
But not me. A few weeks ago I sat a blackjack table in Mandalay Bay until about 1 in the morning. I had been drinking for about 14 hours. I could barely see, let alone think. Yet, the gambling gods had shown favor on me and I was doing pretty well. Until I wasn’t. And when a smarter man would go to bed to save his money to bet on NFL the next morning, I stayed.
And lost it all.
So that is what this is. It is my drunk 1 am visit to a blackjack table. Here if I have a bad week I lose my reputation as an NFL Sharp rather than a pocket full of cash. But, thankfully my reputation is smaller than my bankroll.
So, with nothing at stake beside my good name, let’s dive in and pick each Wild Card game. Let’s start with the Saturday games.
Houston vs. Cincinnati****
Halftime: Houston (-2)
Full Game: Houston (-3)
Am I really picking T.J. Yates to win a playoff game and cover a spread? Yes. Yes I am. The easy argument would be to say I don’t trust Andy Dalton, a rookie QB, on the road against a stout Texans defense; that a healthy Andre Johnson and Arian Foster can take the pressure off TJ. But there is another more important factor in picking the Texans: revenge.
Did you see the seats that the Bengals gave TJ’s parents at Yates’ first start in Cincinnati? That was disrespect if I have ever seen it. TJ is coming out for blood this week. There is no greater motivation then defending the honor of your mother. And make no mistake – by putting Mr. and Mrs. Yates in seats marginally closer to Dayton than to the field, the Bengals essentially pulled out a glove and slapped TJ across the face. IT IS ON. And TJ is bringing Brian Cushing and his ‘supplements’ with him.
In the name of Mrs. Yates, I think the Texans come out strong and roll, give the points at half and across the full game and you too can spend these 3 hours laughing, smiling and reminiscing about the early 1990’s Broncos teams right along with Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips as the Texans roll.
****HUGE ASTERISK: If Yates is truly hurt and Jake Delhomme plays a prominent role in this game, then ignore all of the above and make a run for the hills like an asteroid is going to hit the ocean over the weekend.
New Orleans vs. Detroit
Halftime: New Orleans (-6.5)
Full Game: New Orleans (-11)
Drew Brees pretty much single-handedly won me my fantasy league this year. It is the 2nd year in a row I have won this league, which means 1 of 2 things:
1 – as the league is full of lawyers, law school really isn’t as difficult as non-lawyers think it is
or
2 – I am about 9 months away from taking a job away from Mathew Berry and forcing him to try and make a living by writing Crocodile Dundee 4: Is Paul Hogan Is Still Alive?
Basically regardless of the outcome here, Brees has already had a pretty successful 2011 season. At least for me.
As for this game, which is significantly less meaningful than my championship game a couple weeks ago (but whatever), I can’t turn my back on what Bress has done for me. I am loyal like that.
Over the course of 60 minutes, I expect the Lions to make too many mistakes and the unstoppable Mardi Gras float that is the Saints offense to run the Lions over like a little kid who got too greedy chasing down beads dropped in the street.
With the freakiest receiver this side of Justin Blackmon, a solid QB (when healthy) in Matthew Stafford and a solid defensive line (when not suspended) I expect the Lions can keep it close for awhile.
Until the clock strikes midnight and Stafford gets up from a tackle holding his arm and grimacing. Or a Boy Named Suh goes all Ron Artest and tries to climb into the stands and rip the umbrella from Tom Benson’s cold, dead hands (after he rips his throat out – Roadhouse style – obviously).
In short, the Lions, much like their coach, are about as disciplined and mature as the cast of Real World at 3 am. There will be an implosion and it will be ugly.
Take the Lions in the first half – hope for a 14-10, 17-14 or 21-17 Saints lead and then hide the women and children, take the Saints full game with the points, pop a cold beer and wait for the implosion.
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