This past Saturday I woke up and after starting the coffee brewing and grabbing the paper I decided to turn on the TV to see if I could catch a Premier League game. My boys from Arsenal had already won and Fox Soccer was showing a game I didn’t care about so I checked what was on ESPN. To my surprise, the first College Game Day of the season was on. To say my life improved at hearing Big and Rich sing the word ‘cit-tay’ is a vast understatement.
Sure, there were the usual annoyances: Herbstreit’s annual unwarranted Hurricane love fest, Corso picking a UF/Nebraska national title game and an extended discussion about Notre Dame as required by ESPN’s FCC license. But all of that is just the trees making up the forest of something much. Much bigger: college football is back!
Gone are those boiling hot Saturdays where your afternoon sports decision is between a baseball game and a golf tournament. Now we return to cooler temperatures, and days upon days of football. It is enough to make a man want to build his own man-cave for enjoying 12 hours of football each Saturday. Oh wait, I am doing that. I rock.
So with that, let’s waste no further time. Let’s jump right in. It is time for my annual destined-to-be-embarrassingly wrong predictions for the college football season. Write them down in ink today, and laugh at their idiocy for months to come:
Not This Year Folks: For the first time since 2005’s epic USC/Texas national championship game (redaction by rule of the NCAA) we will not have a representative of the SEC in the national championship game.
Yes, Alabama is the defending national champion but they won that title with defense. A defense that now has 9 new starters. Hard to see this being the same defense as the one led by Rolando McClain and Mount Cody (who personally won them the Tennessee game last year you might remember). Not only that but thanks to a quirk of scheduling their final 6 SEC opponents will all play the Tide coming off of a bye week. That obviously won’t help every opponent but the Tide didn’t exactly blow anyone out last year. One or two minor slip-ups are pretty easy to envision. Of course as their friends in Baton Rouge can tell you, even losing twice doesn’t automatically disqualify a team from national championship game – assuming the pollsters are as infatuated with you as teenage girls are with Justin Bieber, so maybe the Tide will sneak in anyway but I still don’t see it.
On the other side of the SEC, the only team that could make a case is the Gators but without the magic of Tebow and the constant losses to the draft along the offensive line and defense they also seem ripe for a couple losses. There are plenty of traps on the Gator schedule: at Tuscaloosa and…dare I say it…(oh, you dare, you dare)…at Tallahassee seem to be prime candidates as well as the annual ‘closer-than-it-should-be game’ or outright loss in the Swamp – LSU and South Carolina look just strong enough to scare the Gators. Outside of Alachua County though, the SEC East is marginally better than the Sun Belt right now. I know Georgia and Tennessee name recognition but that is the only credibility they carry into the season. Call me when you win a game of consequence. With that, the winner of the SEC title game will need a lot of help to reach the BCS title game again.
You Can Show Yourself Out: The last few years, one of the biggest stories in college football has been the rise of teams from the non-power conferences on to the BCS stage. This year Boise State has the unprecedented opportunity of beginning the season in the top five, setting up an easy to envision rise to that national title game. I know ESPN’s talking heads said that the BCS title game would take 2 one-loss teams over BSU but that is hard to believe from a simple logistical approach.
If every other team loses a game, BSU will have to sit atop the polls at some point. If Alabama and OSU lose and BSU remains undefeated, then either the teams that beat each rise to the top or BSU does. But then in this scenario, whatever teams jump them (say Florida and Iowa) would also lose. So, somehow we are expected to believe BSU would never climb to the #1 spot? And if they do, can the pollsters really dislodge a #1 team that doesn’t lose? I don’t see it.
However this hypothetical scenario that must keep BCS Commissioners up all night worrying about the gypsies taking over their palace will remain just what it is – a hypothetical. One week from today this could be a moot point and I think it will be. It is conventional wisdom around here that Virginia Tech always loses at least one game they shouldn’t. The opening weekend BSU game seems like a prime contender for one of VT’s annual embarrassments. But I don’t think so. Not this time. This is, in essence, a home game for the Hokies and they have an experienced QB and two experienced running backs to not fold on the big stage. Combine that with superior size and athleticism and I think VT can overcome their overrated and overmatched coaching staff and send Cinderella back to Smurfland with a loss, ending the speculation before it can even begin. Oh, and TCU? Yeah, you had your shot last year in a BCS bowl and apparently used the Bob Stoops BCS game handbook to prepare for it. Don’t think you will get a second invite back to the party no matter what you do this year.
Archie Griffin: Popping champagne by Week #5: Archie Griffin will get to embrace his inner-Mercury Morris when he remains the only two-time Heisman trophy winner for yet another year. I wasn’t a strong believer in Mark Ingram last year (since I am 98% sure his back-up Trent Richardson is as good as he is, how can he be the best player in the country), so if you factor in a loss or two for the Tide, less impressive stats (as team really key on stopping him, which you even saw at the end of last season) and beginning the season already injured, there seems little to no chance he is holding up the bronze statue again this season. If everything else plays out as expected (see below), I think you will see Terrelle Pryor up on that stage in December: he has the hype, the name-school, the pre-season ranking and the Big Ten to put up great stats against. Throw in a highlight reel play or two and 11 wins or so and it would take an out-of-nowhere Charles Woodson like year to take it away from him.
And on a personal note: We have been waiting for years, asking the same question: could this be the year? When I say ‘we’ I mean Seminole fans, of course. Is this the year our boys finally rise back to the top of the rankings? For once, I think it might be possible. With probably the best quarterback to wear the garnet and gold not named Charlie Ward, more talented but unproven running backs and wide receivers than the Tea Party has lunatics and an experienced line, this should be as good an offense as we have seen since we were all stocking cans for Y2K. On the defensive side, FSU had the 110th best defense last year and still went 7-6. Even if they achieve mediocrity (ranking in 50s or 60s) this team could finish with just 2 or 3 losses. Now we have a new, young coordinator and some of the top freshmen in the country. I’m not saying FSU will be in the national title conversation or definitely beat OU in week #2, but will they be hovering around a top ten ranking, have a major upset on their resume and possibly be in consideration for a BCS Bowl bid at the end of the season? Finally, yes.
At the End of the Day: There is really only one thing that matters in college football: who wins the crystal football. Looking into my tea leaves (chai: left over from my post latte tea this morning – I am a 2 caffeine drink kind of guy), I see yet another Ohio State title game appearance. Sorry Peffer. With a strong team back, only a couple major challenges (Iowa, Miami and Wisconsin) and a quarterback that could go all Vince Young at a moment’s notice, it is hard to dismiss OSU making it back to the title game. And facing OSU will, ironically, be VY’s old team, the Texas Longhorns. Sorry Turner. Yes, McCoy is gone but Garrett Gilbert filled in admirably in the BCS title game and should mature throughout this season. A depleted Big 12 leaves them with only 3 really tough games all year:
Oklahoma: hard to believe but I take Mack Brown over Bob Stoops in a coaching duel any day. Wow, did I just write something positive about Mack? I must be running a fever.
Nebraska: Sure last year’s Big 12 title game was close. But that was thanks to a man named Suh. He is gone. Unfortunately the Huskers’ quarterbacks remain. Their chance at a win does not.
Texas A&M: Wow, what year is this? 1996? Texas A&M, seriously? Sure, they have a fine quarterback. But the Aggies have been waiting to return to relevance even longer than the Seminoles. I’m from Missouri (literally): you need to show me something before I believe it.
With that it seems pretty clear we are looking at a Texas v. Ohio State title game. Sorry Horns but the Big 12’s failure on the BCS stage continues another year and OSU takes away the BCS title as well as my favorite running joke about the Big Ten not being able to compete with the southern schools.
I say the loss of one running joke is a small sacrifice to make for the glory that is another college football season. As a lame commercial for a cheap light beer says: here we go.
If you need me, I will be in my man-cave.
